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The polarized race for the Republican presidential nomination unfolding this week in Nevada (non-binding primaries Tuesday, caucuses Thursday) is set to secure a delegate victory for Donald J. Trump to secure the nomination. The Republican leadership planned this.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is not spending time or money in Nevada, instead focusing on the primary in her home state of South Carolina later this month. Indeed, the contest gave Mr. Trump’s last remaining rival an opportunity to borrow the words of the former president.
Haley’s campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, said in a conference call Monday that Nevada was “set up for Trump,” adding, “We haven’t spent a penny or energy in Nevada.” added.
Considering all this, and the fact that Mr. Trump has already racked up big wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada race is in a race that many Republicans believe is already largely over. is not expected to be any turning point. . Polls show Trump with a wide lead over Haley in South Carolina.
But it does have some ability to reveal more about voters, and not just voters, but voters in battleground states. And it may not be a complete washout for Haley.
Perhaps even more than that, the Nevada campaign will see Trump, who has for years accused Democrats of tampering with election rules, use the courts and party rules aggressively to ensure that It emerged as an objective lesson from what had been done. He wins the party’s nomination. (There is also a Democratic primary, but President Biden has this field almost to himself).
Here are some things to keep in mind:
Two contests?
Yes, certainly. There is a primary election mandated by the state legislature. But Republicans challenged that in court and won the right for Nevada to hold its own caucuses to select delegates to this summer’s Republican convention. Therefore, the primary election will be held one day later, and the caucus will be held two days later.
The primary election will be held by mail and in-person and is expected to draw thousands of voters.
By contrast, caucuses are tightly controlled events that draw together a much narrower group of voters. They were founded and are run by the Nevada Republican Party, an ally of Mr. Trump.
Look to the first contest to gauge how much popular support Ms. Haley can muster without a lot of money or campaigning. But if you want to keep track of what’s really important, watch the second video. These are the delegates that are gathering one after another as Mr. Trump prepares to win the nomination.
Dare I call it cheating?
That’s what Haley’s campaign called it Monday. “To be fair, this is cheating,” said Rebecca Gill, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “It was created to deliver all the convention votes to Donald Trump.” Under Republican rules, candidates can participate in either the primaries or the caucuses, but not both. Mr. Trump’s name is scheduled to appear in the caucuses, and Ms. Haley is on the primary ballot, calculating that she will never be able to defeat Trump in the caucuses.
It’s worth pointing out that while this contest has been described as rigged, meaning the outcome is effectively predetermined, there is nothing the Trump campaign is doing. That means there is nothing illegal. They have used the courts and allies within their party to bend the rules in their favor. That’s the role of the campaign.
Trump’s campaign also disputed the idea that the results were manipulated, noting that the caucus system was created by Nevada’s Republican leaders. “Even though the majority of Republicans in Nevada are working for and voting for Donald Trump rather than Nikki Haley, that’s okay,” said Chris Lacivita, a senior Trump campaign adviser. No,” he said. “Just saying that’s the way the system is doesn’t constitute anything, but that’s the way the system is. It’s really embarrassing for them to say that.”
Any potential surprises?
Be prepared for a ferocious number of attacks from the Haley and Trump campaigns who will try to make the result look like a victory. Yes, Trump will capture the delegates. But Ms. Haley could end the election Tuesday with more actual votes than Ms. Trump received in Thursday’s caucuses. That’s because it’s almost certain that more Nevadans will participate in the primary than attend the party’s caucuses.
If Haley can win more votes, it would certainly mark this as a victory and a sign of her popularity with a broader electorate. After losses in Iowa and Hampshire dwindle, she’s understandably looking for any bit of good news that might help her rally support in her home state.
Trump’s forces are not leaving things to chance. They are encouraging voters to come to the primaries and vote for “None of these candidates,” which is an actual sentence on the ballot. If Haley loses the “none of these candidates” decision on Tuesday, that would also be a tough outcome for her.
In any case, what matters are the 26 delegates.
Nevada’s future
Political leaders and analysts have long sought to increase Nevada’s importance in the presidential selection process. That’s what John Ralston, a longtime Nevada political commentator, calls it. “#wematter” status. The truth is that a polarized system has left Nevada just a few rungs down the #wematter ladder of political importance.
“Nevada’s importance to this year’s nomination process has been significantly undermined,” Gill said. “The average Nevada voter is used to being bombarded with ads this time of year. We hear nothing from anyone.”
But rest assured, Nevadans. It’s unlikely that will last. Nevada may not be important in choosing candidates for either party. But the state is one of a handful of key states that will decide November’s general election. Biden won Nevada in 2020 with 50.1% of the vote.
Take a look at who’s been in Las Vegas these past two weeks. President Biden and Donald J. Trump.
Jonathan Wiseman Contributed to the report.
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