ZiPS predictions for 2024 give the Braves a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series

The 2024 Projection System continues to love the Atlanta Braves. This time it’s Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection published on his FanGraphs on Friday. Don’t confuse these with FanGraphs’ playoff odds released earlier this week. ZiPS’ predictions are part of FanGraphs’ playoff odds system, but the predictions we’re looking at today come exclusively from his ZiPS.

These rankings are the result of 1 million simulations, Szymbowski said. He explains his methodology here.

So how does ZiPS calculate seasons? Within ZiPS, predictions are stored for each player from the 1st percentile to the 99th percentile. First, create a generalized depth chart using the depth chart as a starting point. These are my hand-picked predictions, so I’m making changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, filtered through my arbitrary whims of logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates one million versions of each team using a Monte Carlo method (i.e., a computational algorithm). But it can also be fun to wear a tuxedo and play chemin de fer like James Bond).

This week, PECOTA and FanGraphs playoff odds revealed the Braves as the overwhelming favorites to win the 2024 World Series. ZiPS also has a high evaluation of the Braves, but is somewhat conservative.

Atlanta is projected to win 95 games, giving them a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series. They are also projected to be 10 games better than the Philadelphia Phillies. With this system, the Los Angeles Dodgers will win his 93rd game and his chances of winning the World Series are predicted to be 13.9%.

Szymborski said of the Braves:

That ZiPS loves the Atlanta Braves is hardly surprising considering they won 104 games last year, and every projection system everywhere loves them, and I’m not a big fan of the Braves. Non-fans have been warning us that this outcome is likely to happen all winter long. Is there anything else to say? They are a great team and there is no scary number two in the division.

Finding another projection system bullish on the Braves would not be surprising given the current state of their roster. Still, if you like projection, Szymbowski’s book is one of his best and explains the methodology well.