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The election of Barack Obama in 2008 appeared to be a sign of this new ascendancy, causing consternation on the right. But a Gallup poll released Wednesday suggests 2020 was a new turning point. Voters who had firmly supported the Democratic Party are beginning to shift to the right.
Gallup surveys thousands of Americans each year and calculates annual averages of how different groups view politics and political issues. This included an assessment of an individual’s partisanship, where respondents were asked whether they identified as a Democrat, Republican, or Independent. Respondents are asked which party they lean towards, as many independents tend to vote for one party or the other.
As a result, Gallup estimates how much more or less likely its members identify as Democrats (or Democratic-leaning independents) than Republicans (or Republican-leaning independents) for various demographic groups. I am estimating whether there is. This data goes back decades and allows us to visualize gaps over time.
You don’t have to worry about keeping track of the individual rows directly below, as they are immediately divided into different categories. But note that there is a general pattern, with most lines initially sloping to the right (during the George W. Bush administration) and then moving back to the left during the Obama era. Since then, trends have become harder to identify, other than a very clear recent shift to the right among black respondents: the far left line.
When we separate racial groups, we find that not only Black Americans but also Hispanic Americans have moved to the right since 2020. Again, this is a bit of an exaggeration as it is the range between people who identify as Democrats and Republicans (and even leaners). Her 1-point change from Democrat to Republican corresponds to his 2-point change in the margin. (Minus 1 for Democrats, plus 1 for Republicans).
You may also have noticed that white Americans have also shifted to the right in recent years, albeit more subtly.
Separating the responses by age reveals some interesting patterns. The partisan divide between older and younger people actually widened during the Obama administration and lasted for more than a decade. However, in recent years, the range has been shrinking again, mainly after 2020. America’s youngest demographic remains the most Democratic, but only 18 percentage points from the age group that is most Republican (ages 50 to 64). (In 2016, it was 35 points.)
There’s also an interesting variation with education, although it’s a little harder to find below. Notice that the line for college graduates starts at the far right in his 1999 year and moves to the left over time. The solid line with no college experience starts at the far left in 1999 and moves slowly and dramatically to the right.
We can visualize some of these changes (including those related to education) more clearly by looking at how the rate of return has changed since 2008, when President Obama was elected.
Again, each group is: Notice that most of the rows have been removed. After 2008, that gap shifted to Republicans.
The exceptions are the two most educated cohorts. The only people who identify more Democratic than they did 15 years ago are people with college degrees. People without degrees have shifted to the right. For people without college experience, it’s pretty dramatic.
Gallup’s Hispanic identification data does not go back to 2008, so this comparison is not possible. But there was a shift between white and black Americans, with the latter once again shifting most dramatically to the right.
There are certainly many factors at play here, but for the sake of brevity I can leave it to others. As the first graph above shows, shifts in one direction are often followed by shifts in the other direction.
However, entering the 2024 general election season, it is safe to say that the Democratic coalition government that would have been expected by this point in the country’s development has not emerged as expected. President Biden’s re-election prospects remain uncertain, and his team clearly expects to still be able to rely on the constituency that propelled him to vice president in 2008. But if President Biden wins a second term, it could look very different. Coalition of voters.
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