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If former President Donald Trump is convicted on all charges in his hush money criminal trial in New York, which begins on April 15, he could theoretically face more than 10 years in prison.
But most legal experts who spoke to USA TODAY said such a dramatic outcome was unlikely. Instead, he is likely to be sentenced to anything from probation to four years in prison. And perhaps he’s still out of the country, leaving him free to campaign for president as the presumptive or actual 2024 Republican candidate while his almost certain appeal is pending.
President Trump faces 34 felonies for falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Each charge carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison.
Trump could in principle serve consecutive sentences on multiple charges, but experts say he has no prior felony criminal history and the charges do not include allegations of physical violence. Therefore, he said that the possibility of that happening is low.
Meanwhile, Trump has tested boundaries and feuded with judges who may decide his fate.
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President Trump antagonizes Judge Juan Machan
Trump’s sentencing will be decided by Judge Juan Melchán, who was outraged by the former president’s pre-trial demeanor. Marchan expanded the gag order this month after Trump attacked a judge’s daughter over her marketing efforts with Democratic candidates, including posting photos of her on social media. Marchan said Trump has a history of attacking the families of judges and lawyers in his own cases.
“The average observer, upon hearing of the defendants’ recent attacks, would think that if they were even tangentially involved in these proceedings, they would not only be concerned about themselves; But also for their loved ones” Machan wrote in the gag order decision.
John Moscow, a New York lawyer who worked for 30 years in the Manhattan district attorney’s office, told USA TODAY that this type of conduct could worsen the sentence imposed on Trump.
“If I were representing someone in[Trump’s]position, I would suggest that it’s up to the judge to decide, and that the judge should be careful,” Moscow said.
Even if Marchand were considering a harsher sentence, it would not be the first time he has taken a harsh view of his actions under the Trump administration.
In 2023, Marchan sentenced Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, to just five months in prison because Weisselberg had previously agreed to a plea agreement with prosecutors that called for a prison sentence. It was announced. Mr. Weisselberg pleaded guilty to charges of taxation and falsifying records and agreed to testify against the Trump Organization at trial to obtain that sentence.
However, the judge said that if he did not accept the plea deal before hearing all the evidence at trial, he would “impose a much more severe sentence.” Without the plea deal, Weisselberg could have been sentenced to many years in prison.
What crime is Mr. Trump being charged with?
Trump has pleaded not guilty to all counts in the case, which centers on whether he falsified business records to conceal repayment of $130,000 in hush money to Daniels to former lawyer Michael Cohen. . Daniels said she had a sexual relationship with Trump shortly after Melania Trump gave birth to his son, Barron Trump. Mr. Trump denies this allegation.
To secure a felony conviction, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office must convince a 12-person jury that President Trump falsified records to commit or cover up another crime. There must be. In the case, Mr. Bragg alleges that Mr. Trump sought to cover up violations of federal campaign finance laws by falsely recording the reimbursements to Mr. Cohen as payments for legal services. The federal violation, which was allegedly paid to ensure Daniels’ story would not negatively impact the then-Republican candidate’s electoral prospects, exceeded the limit for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. It was a donation. Mr. Bragg also claimed that President Trump was trying to cover up a plan to violate New York tax and election laws.
There is nothing in the Constitution that would prevent Trump from becoming president even if he is convicted or sentenced to prison. However, if he wins the election, the court could delay his sentence until the end of his term.
What is the maximum possible sentence?
The 34 felonies with which Mr. Trump has been charged are classified as “Class E felonies” (the lowest level of felonies in the state) under New York state law. The maximum penalty for each charge is four years in prison, and the judge will have the discretion to order Trump to serve each sentence concurrently or sequentially. However, New York State has a maximum sentencing limit of 20 years for Class E felonies.
In addition, New York judges often set sentencing ranges, and those incarcerated at the lower end of the range are eligible for parole. For Class E felonies, the lower end of the range is 1.3 years per charge and the higher end is 4 years. The right actions in prisons and jails can make things even faster.
A suspended sentence?
Mr. Machan also has discretion to order a sentence shorter than these ranges, including probation.
Mitchell Epner, a New York lawyer with decades of criminal law experience, expects that to happen even if Trump is convicted on all charges. Epner noted the felonies were not violent and did not involve drugs.
“For a defendant without a criminal record, my absolute expectation would be probation,” Epner told USA TODAY.
Epner wasn’t the only one who thought that could be the outcome at sentencing.
Anna Kominsky said, “This is a case that doesn’t involve any physical violence, and the court won’t accept that because there’s no such thing as a ‘named victim’ who doesn’t actually involve violence.” I’m going to take that into consideration.” She directs the criminal defense clinic at New York Law School, she told USA TODAY.
“Additionally, given the fact that he has no criminal history and the fact that he is a former president of the United States, I think it is unlikely that he will be sent to prison,” Kominsky said.
The possibility of imprisonment is real.
Norman Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as special counsel for the House Judiciary Committee during President Trump’s first impeachment, believes a sentence that includes some level of incarceration is likely. ing.
Mr. Eisen co-authored a report that reviewed sentencing for other defendants with no criminal history who were convicted of falsifying business records in New York. He noted that in 2015, a construction company executive was sentenced to two days in prison every week for one year for falsifying records to conceal payments in a bribery scheme. In 2013, two corporate executives were ordered to serve four to six months in prison for falsifying records to misclassify paychecks as expenses in a massive employer bribery and fraud scheme. Ta.
“If he’s convicted, I think there’s a good chance he’ll probably go to prison,” Eisen told USA TODAY.
Kominsky said the evidence Marchan heard at trial could also influence Marchan’s thinking regarding sentencing.
“When a judge refers to the testimony at trial or the evidence presented at trial and says, ‘I’m making this decision because I heard from this particular witness or because I saw this particular evidence.’ You hear that a lot,” Kominsky said.
The Russian government objected to the assumption that President Trump’s sentences for each of the charges would be carried out at the same time, rather than overlapping. Judges may consider significant evidence of wrongdoing, Moscow said, in the same way that judges consider that a defendant won a Nobel Peace Prize or lifted orphans from poverty. .
“When you started attacking the judge’s daughter and tried to target her, you violated the normal rules,” Moscow said.
Trump also posted a photo of himself brandishing a bat while looking at an adjacent photo of Bragg, among other attacks on the district attorney. Bragg’s office said in a court filing that it received thousands of harassing emails, phone calls and text messages, including death threats, after Trump’s social media attacks.
Diana Florence, a New York lawyer who spent decades in the Manhattan district attorney’s office, said Marchand’s sentence must have some relation to sentences received by other white-collar defendants in similar cases, and if He said he would be surprised if anyone was sentenced. The minimum prison term for falsifying business records is 10 years.
Such a long sentence is “very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very. That would be very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very unusual. If Judge Marchand wanted to make that argument and do something like that, the Appellate Division would allow it. “I highly doubt that,” she said. “It takes too long to act.”
However, Florence added that a reasonable sentencing range could include at least a year in prison.
Sentencing someone with Secret Service protection?
Given the possibility of imprisonment or a prison sentence, Mr Marchand would be entering uncharted territory. Trump is the first former president to face criminal charges, and the Secret Service provides him with 24-hour security.
But avoiding a prison sentence on that basis risked undermining the idea of equal treatment under the law, Moscow suggested.
“If I were a judge — I don’t know what a judge would do in this case — I would reject the idea that the Secret Service protects former presidents as a matter of policy because he was a former president. ‘So he can’t go to prison,’ Moscow said.
According to Moscow, the question becomes how to reconcile equal treatment with ensuring the former president’s security. A judge could get creative, such as ordering the former president to stay in a hotel block or military base, where he would be isolated like other prisoners but protected by the Secret Service.
“Things can be structured to achieve the appropriate outcome without giving the defendant an advantage,” Moscow said.
What are the chances of immediate imprisonment? “Less than 1%”
Florence said many convicted defendants are “remanded” pending sentencing, a process in which they are held in custody while awaiting sentencing.
However, Ms. Florence did not expect Marchan to issue such an order regarding Trump, and even if Marchan did issue one, Trump would not have been able to make such an order as set by the appellate court to remain free pending appeal. It is likely that you will be able to obtain bail of several thousand dollars. If Trump receives a lower sentence, that would be even more likely because an appeal could take longer than the actual sentence, he said.
“I’d say there’s less than a 1% chance that he’ll go to prison right away, even if he’s convicted six weeks from now or whenever,” Florence said. This is because they will be released on bail immediately at the trial.”
Eisen agreed that even if convicted on all charges, Trump probably would not be in jail by Election Day.
“I think it’s extremely unlikely that he will be forced to serve that sentence pending appeal,” Eisen said.
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