[ad_1]
Primary season is in full swing with three caucuses and primaries this weekend, another caucus and primary on Monday, followed by Super Tuesday, when primary voters in 15 states cast their votes. Trying to.
Polls show that former President Donald Trump is very likely to win most, if not all, of these contests. If these predictions come true, Mr. Trump will almost clinch the Republican nomination, but not completely.
We spoke with Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times, about when Trump’s nomination will be decided. (On the Democratic side, neither Biden’s main opponents, Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson, have won or appear poised to win any delegates, so the fact is There is no need to calculate it.)
Nate, what are the basics of delegate calculations?
The basics are simple. A candidate must win a majority of the 2,429 delegates to the Republican National Convention to become the party’s nominee. These delegates are typically awarded on a state-by-state basis based on the results of primaries and caucuses.
The complication is that Republican rules allow each state to decide how to award delegates, awarding delegates proportionally based on a candidate’s vote share, so if they win statewide, It is taking a very different approach, going so far as to allow one candidate to receive all delegates.
Will Trump be able to clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday?
It’s close, but the answer is no. Slightly less than half of the Republican convention’s delegates will have been elected by the end of Super Tuesday, so it’s technically impossible for any candidate to win a majority by then. For reference, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis won enough delegates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other early states to prevent Trump from winning even if he wins the Super Tuesday states. I was able to do that.
What are the possible scenarios from Super Tuesday?
If the polls are correct, there is only one scenario: President Trump finds himself within easy reach of winning the nomination.
National polls currently show him with nearly 80% of the vote, meaning he will win the majority of delegates, regardless of the exact state-by-state rules. Even better for him, as Mr. Trump hopes, many states, including California, will award all delegates to the winner who receives more than 50% of the vote. Several Super Tuesday states award delegates on a proportional basis, but if they do as polls suggest they will still win nearly all of the delegates.
Taken together, Trump could easily win more than 90% of the delegates available for Super Tuesday.
How quickly can he lock in a nomination and what needs to happen?
Mathematically, the earliest date to vote is March 12, when Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington state vote.
That would be difficult to achieve, but given his strong performance in the polls, it’s hard to rule out that possibility without very detailed analysis. After all, if Haley doesn’t get more than 20 percent of the vote, she may not win delegates even in states where the rules make it relatively easy to win.
If he couldn’t manage it, when would he ever be able to?
More realistically, Trump will be confirmed on March 19, when Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio vote.
As the race unfolds, you can track the number of participants here.
President Trump says little about Gaza
In the nearly five months since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel on October 7, Donald Trump has not made any notable comments on the issue.
He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but quickly retreated to a more standard expression of support for the country. And he goes on a rant about how the invasion would never have happened if he had been president. But his overall approach was laissez-faire.
“I mean, we’re probably going to have to leave it like this because the war is going on. We’re probably going to have to leave it like this because a lot of people are dying,” Trump said at the United Nations, a month after the attack. He said this in an interview with Vision. His main advice to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israelis was that they should do a better job of “public relations” because the Palestinians were “beating them in public relations,” he said at the time.
President Trump’s hands-off approach to the bloody Middle East conflict reflects the fundamental shift in anti-interventionism he has brought to the Republican Party over the past eight years, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated President Biden. It is colored by the Prime Minister’s feelings. For victory in 2020.
In the days immediately following the largest single-day loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust, President Trump’s first instinct was to use Israel’s national trauma to score a showdown with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
On October 11, President Trump publicly blamed Prime Minister Netanyahu’s lack of preparation for the Hamas invasion and praised the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah as “very smart.”
President Trump has not offered any substantive criticism of Biden’s response to the Hamas invasion and Israeli retaliation in Gaza. Rather, as he often does when violence or tragedy occurs, he places the blame for the entire crisis on Biden’s “weaknesses.”
The former president told a crowd in Rock Hill, South Carolina on February 23, “We would never have had the problems we have now, the terrible problems that Israel had on October 7th, when it was attacked so badly.” Told.
It is hard to imagine that in the pre-Trump Republican Party, this standard-bearer had so little to say in the midst of a presidential campaign about the massive terrorist attack on Israel and the growing regional conflict.
“One of America’s closest allies is under attack. And it’s surprising that we’ve heard so little from President Trump under these circumstances,” said Trump’s former national security adviser. said John Bolton, a hawk who has harshly criticized President Trump and has supported Israel for many years.
But people close to Trump, who leads Biden in polls, express little, if any, urgency for him to come up with a more detailed foreign policy plan on Israel and other issues. I don’t feel it.
President Trump is also avidly consuming news about young progressives who oppose Biden over Israel. And his camp and its allies plan to use that division to their advantage.
One idea being discussed among Mr. Trump’s allies is that Mr. The idea is to post an ad thanking them for their support. Plans that were not authorized for public discussion.
—Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and michael gold
Read the full text here.
[ad_2]
Source link
