Why will it be difficult for Biden to defeat Trump?

CNN
—

For all intents and purposes, the 2024 presidential election is fast approaching. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are scheduled to face off in the first presidential rematch since 1956. It will also be the first rematch between a sitting president and a former president since 1892.

But unlike 2020, when Biden was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, Biden faces a tougher road this time around. In fact, he only has a 50-50 chance of being re-elected, and fans of the current president should realize that Trump has a real chance of taking back the White House.

Take a look at the poll released last week. The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and Wall Street Journal polls all gave Trump a 2- to 4-point lead over Biden. (Biden scored 3 points higher than Trump on KFF.)

All of these results were officially within the margin of error, but taken together they paint a picture of a troubled incumbent.

It’s not just that Biden is in a worse position against his general election opponent than nearly every incumbent over the past 75 years (except Trump in 2020). That means Trump’s wide lead was unprecedented during the 2020 campaign — Trump leads Biden nationally in polls that meet CNN’s criteria for publication. There was nothing that showed.

And in the 2020 election, the states that gave Biden the lead in the Electoral College (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) were each decided by less than one point. He had little margin for error.

Today’s poll situation looks bad for Biden. I previously noted that the president’s current position in Sun Belt battleground states looks much worse than it did four years ago.

The latest polls show him trailing Arizona, Georgia and Nevada by more than 5 points. No Democratic presidential candidate has lost Nevada since 2004.

Even if Biden loses all these states, he still has a chance to win if he wins all of his other races in 2020, giving him a 270-268 electoral vote. It would be helpful.

The problem for Biden is that he is trailing in Michigan. The average poll over the past six months that meets CNN’s criteria has him down 4 points.

In other words, polls currently show Mr. Trump leading, albeit by a small margin, in enough states to win the Electoral College and the presidency.

But elections will not be held today or tomorrow. This is the first time in about 8 months.

But if I were Biden, it wouldn’t be the “horse race” polls that would bother me. That’s what’s under the hood.

Americans say the biggest problems facing this country have to do with the economy or immigration. Trump is significantly more trusted than Biden on both issues. If consumer sentiment continues to improve and border crossings decline, Mr. Biden may strengthen his opposition to Mr. Trump.

Once again, I don’t really understand. Biden currently has the lowest approval rating of any incumbent senator seeking re-election since World War II. His approval rating hovers at 40% or slightly below. Two recent incumbents who had similarly low approval ratings at this point in his presidency (Trump in 1992 and George H.W. Bush) were both defeated in November.

Many Democrats like to argue that they can’t just look at Biden’s approval ratings. His opponent is also unpopular, with unfavorable evaluations outweighing his favorable ratings.

That’s a valid point, but many polls (including the most recent ones from Fox News, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal) show President Trump’s favorability rating several points higher than President Biden’s. Again, this is very different from what we saw in 2020 of him.

This means it’s not enough for Biden to win over voters who dislike both men. To make up for their lack of popularity, they have to beat them by a significant margin.

With eight months left, there is certainly a chance that Biden will close the gap. But unlike most campaigns, the candidates for both major parties are already clearly defined. Less than 5% of voters cannot register an opinion about Biden or Trump.

Biden’s best hope for getting more people to rebel against Trump may lie in four criminal indictments against the former president. Aside from the fact that the start dates for most of these trials, with the exception of the New York hush-money case, are uncertain, how much of a difference would it make if Trump were convicted in any of these cases? It’s not clear.

A New York Times poll found that a majority of likely voters (53%) said they already believe President Trump has committed serious federal crimes. The same poll showed Trump with a four-point lead among likely voters.

Trump led in the poll, with 18% of his supporters saying they still support him despite his conviction for serious federal crimes. Such statistics are concerning for Biden supporters. Because if some voters think Trump has committed serious federal crimes but are still willing to vote for him, what could possibly change their mind?

Similarly, a Times poll found that 72% of likely voters say Biden is too old to be an effective president given his age (Trump Relatively few (53%) said they had committed a serious federal crime. This gap may be one of the biggest reasons Biden has a problem with Trump.

Perhaps the big question over the next eight months is whether President Trump’s weaknesses will begin to outweigh Biden’s. If so, that would probably be the president’s best chance of winning another term.