Why is it uncertain which candidates different age groups will support?

In 2020, Joe Biden won voters under 30 by 24 points, according to a comparison of Pew Research Center polls and voter records. But the latest Times-Siena poll shows voters under 30 supporting Biden by just 1 percentage point. The race is so close because older voters (65 and older) support Biden by 9 points, compared to 4 points for Trump four years ago. .

So what does that give? Has there been much change in the last four years? Is this a result of some very strange repeated elections?

Maybe, maybe. But perhaps part of it will come down to who Siena pollsters think is likely to vote.

First, let me point out that this is one poll. Various recent opinion polls (such as YouGov (conducted for The Economist) and Ipsos (conducted for Reuters)) show different ratings for the same group. For example, a YouGov poll shows Mr. Trump leading by 1 point, but Mr. Biden has a large advantage among younger voters, and Mr. Trump has a large advantage among older voters.

Ipsos poll results, on the other hand, show little variation. Biden has a slight lead among younger registered voters. Biden has a slight lead in the older one.

Ipsos was generous enough to provide us with the results broken down into various age categories, one of which was particularly noteworthy. If we divide the respondents into three groups: those under 35, those between 35 and 54, and those over 55, we find that the margins between Biden and Trump are essentially the same. However, the level support As the age of the respondents increases, the proportion of each candidate also increases. Among those under 35, Trump and Biden each won about 30% of the vote. Those over 55 receive approximately 40% each.

The difference lies in the proportion of each group who said they would vote for a different candidate or not vote at all. Among the youngest group, five said they would not vote for either Biden or Trump. Within the oldest group, he is one of only 7% to do so.

Dan Hopkins, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, wrote for 538 last week and pointed to research included in a recent Associated Press poll conducted by NORC. The poll found support for Trump and Biden varied widely depending on how often respondents had voted in recent elections. Trump led by 18 points among voters who did not vote in any of the past three federal elections (2018, 2020, and 2022). Among those who voted in all three, Biden led by 11 points.

This pattern held true among black and white respondents, with only Hispanic voters, who most frequently supported Biden, split in opinion.

Notice here that some of these characteristics overlap. Younger Americans are more likely to be Asian, black, or Hispanic than older Americans. Young people are also a group that is more likely to be politically independent, generally vote less frequently, and follow political news less closely.

For example, the gulf between politically active and non-politically active young people is perhaps due to the fact that recent Pew Research Center data on voter registration shows a broad Democratic advantage among young people. That’s probably one of the reasons, according to Gallup’s self-reported survey. identity, you can see it shrinking. Which group will better represent the electorate in November?

The Times and Siena results include both overall results and results among likely voters. They found no significant differences between the two groups by age. The gap among likely voters changed by only one or two points. But it also depends on how pollsters identify who is likely to vote. The importance of how pollsters view voters was illustrated in an informative 2016 experiment by The Times. In this experiment, different pollsters used the same set of responses to provide different estimates of presidential votes.

It’s early. It’s a strange election. There is a lot of hostility toward Biden on the left, especially among those with loose ties to the Democratic Party. So perhaps some young voters who are less likely to vote actually don’t vote, or are more likely to reluctantly (or eventually excitedly) vote for one candidate or the other? It may be that it has become extraordinarily difficult to know. Different polling organizations will come to different conclusions about who will vote, and the results within age groups will vary accordingly. It’s worth noting that in each of the polls reviewed in this article, the Biden-Trump race is within the margin of error.

A final reminder is best. Polls remain closed until election day, and small fluctuations probably don’t tell us as much as we think. On the other hand, large fluctuations will probably turn out to be smaller than expected.

The Times-Siena poll also sparked discussion about the generational divide in support for Trump and Biden. From the data shared by Ipsos, we offer this chart as a point of discussion and discussion, but not to provide any additional ideas beyond those listed above.