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- The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set an ambitious (and necessary) goal to keep global temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. But new research suggests we may have crossed that threshold years ago.
- A new study from the University of Western Australia’s Ocean Research Institute studied long-lived Caribbean hard sponges and created a timeline of ocean temperatures going back to the 1700s.
- The study claims that temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2020, but other scientists question whether data for just one part of the world is enough to capture the ocean’s immense thermal complexity. is holding.
Whatever your stance on climate change (it’s true, let’s move on), the almost ubiquitous action of “preventing temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels” It’s impossible to miss the evocation. In recent years, this somewhat bureaucratic phrase has become a rallying cry for climate-conscious people.
This ambitious goal first emerged after the Paris climate agreement and represents a climate threshold of sorts. Exceeding the long-term average temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius and maintaining that level for several years could cause serious damage to ourselves and our environment.
Now, a new paper from the University of Western Australia’s Institute of Marine Research has some bad news: The world may have jumped that threshold. four years ago.It was published in the magazine nature climate change, the paper reached this conclusion through the unlikely route of analyzing six scleractinoid sponges, a type of sponge that clings to underwater caves in the ocean. These sponges are commonly studied by climate scientists and arenature archivesBecause it grows very slowly. For example, a few millimeters per year. This essentially allows us to lock climate data into a limestone skeleton, although it’s not completely different from tree rings or ice cores.
By analyzing the ratio of strontium to calcium in these sponges, the researchers were able to effectively calculate water temperatures going back to 1700. The sponge’s watery home in the Caribbean is also an advantage, as major ocean currents don’t confuse or skew temperature readings. This data could be particularly useful because direct human measurements of ocean temperatures date back to about 1850, when sailors dipped buckets into the ocean. This is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses 1850 and 1900 as pre-industrial standards. According to the website “Grist”.
“The big picture is that the global warming clock for reducing emissions to minimize the risk of dangerous climate change has been moved forward by at least 10 years,” said study lead author Malcolm McCulloch. said. Associated Press. “Basically, we’re running out of time.”
The study concludes that global warming began about 80 years earlier than IPCC estimates, and has already exceeded 1.7 degrees Celsius in 2020. It’s a ‘wow’ moment, but some scientists are skeptical. One such scientist said in an interview with LiveScience that “It is implausible to claim that instrument records are wrong based on paleocavernoids collected in one region of the world.” …Honestly, I don’t understand what that means.” Other experts said they wanted to see more data before completely overturning the IPCC’s climate goal, which currently says the planet is stuck at a long-term temperature change of around 100 degrees Celsius. 1.2 degrees Celsius.
Unfortunately, even if the sponges are wrong, there is growing evidence that we are passing that 1.5 degree threshold as we speak. This year’s January was the hottest on record, with temperatures rising 1.7 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures.according to new scientist, which means that the change has been greater than 1.5 degrees for at least one year. This doesn’t jump above the 1.5 line above the long-term average, but it’s certainly a sign that it’s rapidly approaching it.
Regardless of the proportions, one thing is certain: climate change is a crisis in which we all work together. To protect the planet for future habitability, humans need to reduce emissions immediately. After all, that’s what the sponges are telling us.
Darren lives in Portland and has a cat. She writes/edits about science fiction and how the world works. If you look hard enough, you can find his previous articles on Gizmodo and Paste.
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