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Democrats aim to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, and their battle begins in earnest with Tuesday’s primary in California.
And their immediate problem is not the Republican Party. It’s the Democratic Party itself.
The Republican-controlled Central Valley, which stretches from Bakersfield to Fresno, would have favored President Biden by 13 points in 2020, but the race between the two Democrats has become deeply personal. Some in the party fear the vote will be split, with incumbent Rep. David Valadao running against Chris Mattis, another Republican running on the right, in November.
With so few seats truly contestable this year, there is the prospect of an early lockout in California, with the top two candidates competing in the general election regardless of their party affiliation, meaning strong candidates including Dolores Huerta in 93rd place. Several people have emerged. She was a year-old labor and civil rights leader who co-founded the United Farm Workers with Cesar Chavez in 1962. She’s suiting up again to replace former California Congressman Rudy Salas, the Organized Democratic Party’s leading candidate. So will California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who plans to rally voters to Mr. Salas on Sunday to support another Democratic candidate, state Sen. Melissa Hurtado.
“I’m scared,” Huerta said Thursday from the foundation’s modest offices in Bakersfield. “We need to do more work.”
Control of Congress could be at risk. Of the 16 House districts won by Biden but now held by Republicans, five are in California, a state that has become a keystone for the party’s bid to retake the chamber, where Republicans currently hold a three-seat majority. ing.
“It’s going to come down to this,” said Erin Covey, a House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Democrats need about a two-thirds majority to have a majority. Deaf,” he said.
Of the 16 districts targeted by Democrats, only two are in states with Republican governors: Virginia’s Tidewater area and Omaha.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of the House Republicans, estimates that two-thirds of the contests for control of the House will take place in states that are largely unaffected by the presidential election. Without the president’s backing for organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts, NRCC officials established a record 24 field offices, believing they could single-handedly protect the Republican Party’s razor-thin majority.
Republicans have made it clear they are keen to prosecute cases in blue areas. Conservatives have profited from these states, particularly Southern California, Long Island, and other areas outside New York City, citing crime, high costs of living, and an influx of immigrants. Abortion, one of the key motivating issues for Democrats, has had less impact in states where voters believe abortion rights are protected.
But Democrats will be playing in a home state with strong state-level organizations and weak Republican organizations. And they argue that the all-Republican administration, led by Trump, is playing a strong hand, threatening abortion rights and other freedoms, including in Democratic states. With President Trump and the possibility of a Republican Senate, the House could become the only bulwark against complete Republican control in Washington.
Democratic candidates say they understand the need to fight Republicans on issues such as immigration. Will Rollins, 39, a former federal prosecutor and Justice Department official, is running to flip California Republican Rep. Ken Calvert’s seat, saying the Republican Party is giving Republicans a “gift” at Trump’s behest. He said he had given it to him. He rejected a painstakingly negotiated bipartisan border security agreement that was created in part by members of his own party.
“It’s our duty to make these arguments and take up the issues that we think Republicans have an advantage on, like the border, inflation and crime,” said Rollins, who ran in the same district around Palm Springs two years ago. he said. . He lost to Mr. Calvert (70) by four points.
Calvert expressed confidence that nothing will be different this time. “Voters weren’t buying what Mr. Rollins was selling last time, and they clearly aren’t interested in his radical, pro-crime policies this time either,” he said.
Overall, Democrats start at a numerical disadvantage when it comes to taking back the House. Gerrymandering and the natural sorting of voters between dense urban areas with many Democrats and vast rural areas with many Republicans leaves very few to function.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics rates only 10 Republican seats as toss-ups, nine of which are in states with Democratic governors. Democrats hold only nine seats that are considered toss-ups, and only one in a state with a Republican governor.
Democrats need five seats to win a House majority, and their primary targets in California are districts held by Valadao and Reps. John Duarte, Mike Garcia and Michelle Steele. .
With so few chances, unforced errors will have a greater chance of ousting Democrats in Valadao’s district. In an interview, Salas said he didn’t discount the possibility that Republicans turn out in droves in the Super Tuesday presidential primary, which is expected to have fewer Democratic issues.
“This could be a real-life scenario,” he said in an interview Friday.
Mr. Hurtado seemed unapologetic in an interview about chile relleno last week at La Imperial Taqueria in Huasco, California. The town has a population of 28,000, including the prison population, and is currently surrounded by miles of blooming almond trees.
“Obviously I wasn’t chosen,” she said with a shrug. “But I like being the underdog.”
Democrats improved their position in at least one California House race. Mr. Garcia’s district in northern Los Angeles County, which will be redrawn in 2022, would have given Mr. Biden a more than 12-point lead over Mr. Trump. But voters in the district nominated the same Democratic candidate, Christy Smith, over Garcia three times, and Garcia defeated her in each election.
This time, Democrats removed George Whiteside, a former NASA chief of staff and former CEO of private space company Virgin Galactic, as a potential new challenger. Mr. Whitesides raised about $3.7 million, of which $271,000 was his own money. Mr. Garcia raised $3.2 million.
In the interview, Mr. Whiteside accused Mr. Garcia of selling $50,000 in Boeing stock weeks before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee released a highly critical investigation into the company’s 737 Max airliner, and He talked about his achievements in the field. In areas that were dependent on industry.
“The fact that we’ve created 700 jobs in the area is also very helpful,” he said.
But infighting continues elsewhere. State Sen. Dave Minn is running against political activist Joanna Weiss in a tight race for the Orange County seat vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter. Ms. Weiss is backed by the pro-Israel United Democracy Project and Emily’s List, which works to elect candidates who support women’s abortion rights. Mr. Covey said these outside groups funneled more than $4 million to Mr. Min and publicized the DUI and racism charges against him, but this does not make it easier for Democrats to secure the seat.
That makes the contest in the Central Valley all the more remarkable. When Democrats persuaded Salas to run in 2022, they saw him as a valuable newcomer and a popular state representative who could become the first Latino to represent the heavily Hispanic Central Valley. It had been.
That year, the drama was on the Republican side. By boosting Mattis, an ardent Trump supporter, with ads, Democrats hoped the far-right candidate would have a better chance of winning than Valadao, who was one of only 10 Republicans to vote. He tried to interfere in the so-called jungle primary. He will impeach Trump for inciting the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. It didn’t work. Mr. Valadao defeated Mr. Mattis by 1,220 votes and came in second place behind Mr. Salas, but on election day he was 3 points behind the Democratic Party.
Democrats were prepared to give Salas another chance in this year’s presidential election, but Emily’s List has data showing that her vote total in the state Senate race exceeded Salas’ vote total in the House race. He also persuaded Mr. Hurtado to run for office.
Washington then chose a side, concerned that Hurtado’s rise could leave Valadao and Mattis as the top two picks on Tuesday.
The House Majority PAC, a super PAC of the House Democratic leadership, has been airing Spanish-language ads touting Mr. Salas’ record in health care, but Mr. Salas, encouraged by Washington Democrats, said Mr. Hurtado An advertisement was aired depicting the following: He has become an enemy of abortion rights, having abstained or absented himself from voting on the issue in the state Senate. It was a painful expense for a candidate who had raised less than $747,000.
Mr. Hurtado, who overcame more than $1 million worth of advertising against his candidacy, raised $76,741, about a tenth of Mr. Salas’ total. And Emily’s list does not include her as a candidate for her support. But Democrats are sweating on the state senator’s high profile, whose district matches 95 percent of the House district.
Hurtado is instead hoping that Salas’ negative ads will actually help her, especially with independent and Republican voters who have supported her in the past.
“If they were going to pick a side, they should have been upfront about it,” she said. “They could have said, ‘Stand aside.’ They never did that.”
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