[ad_1]
French President Emmanuel Macron is nothing less than a gambler. We all know that he took a huge risk in taking power in 2017. He founded a new party that claimed to be neither left nor right, and in so doing hollowed out France’s traditional left and right parties. In many ways, Macron is getting what he deserves.
Therefore, there is little room for moderates in the current French political landscape. Macron’s major reforms, such as the pension age reform, were extremely unpopular. Also recall the massive Yellow Vest protests that erupted in 2018 in response to Macron’s green tax on fuel. It was therefore not surprising that Macron lost his parliamentary majority in June 2022. Since then, he has struggled to get anything done in the divisive French parliament.
So when the European Parliament elections came in June, there was no realistic chance that Macron’s party would win. Poll after poll predicted that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party would win. And she did. Macron then surprised everyone by calling for early parliamentary elections. But any elections he calls would almost certainly see him lose his current position to the far right or far left. So why is he calling for early elections? For one thing, he still hopes that the French public will hesitate to vote for a far-right party. For another, he thinks that if they stay in power for a long time, the true nature of the far-right party will become clear.
The problem is that Marine Le Pen is in the process of “de-demonizing” her party (National Rally) and is speaking statesmanlike about the pressing issues of the day. Marine Le Pen no longer says that France must leave the EU and wants to work with other like-minded leaders like Giorgia Meloni of Italy. However, Le Pen is expected to be tough on immigration and support economic nationalism. She is against globalization and multiculturalism.
The left-wing party creates the New Popular Front and goes to parliament with a platform of mandatory retirement at 60, a higher minimum wage, higher wages for civil servants, lower income taxes, a wealth tax on the rich, etc., never mind that all of this would have disastrous consequences for a France whose public debt is already at 110% of GDP.
It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen in France in the two-stage process of the elections on June 30 and July 7, but some things can be said with a fair degree of certainty. First, Macron’s party will find it difficult to win an absolute majority. Second, Macron will remain president (this is a parliamentary election, not a presidential one), but he will have to “coexist” with a prime minister from another party. That prime minister will likely be the young Jordan Bardella, nominated by Marine Le Pen, who is running to take Macron’s place in the presidential election three years from now. A hung parliament could also deepen political uncertainty in France.
France is the second most important economy in the EU and is currently the only European country with a nuclear deterrent and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The outcome of the snap vote called by President Macron could have the following geopolitical implications for Europe and beyond:
First, if, as expected, President Macron were to “coexist” with a prime minister who is far-right (or far-left), France would be too weak to lead EU foreign and security policy.
Second, a victory for either the far-right or the far-left could put France in direct conflict with Brussels over its EU membership obligations.
Third, it is well known that it is the Franco-German engine that drives the EU. In fact, the German Chancellor has already said that she hopes that Le Pen’s party does not win the election. The Franco-German engine would stall and possibly come to a complete halt.
Fourth, it could undermine France’s involvement in the Ukrainian war. Marine Le Pen has ruled out sending French troops to Ukraine and her priority is to fund domestic French policies, not military aid to Ukraine. Fifth, the far-left parties have taken a pro-Palestinian stance on the Gaza issue, which makes French Jews and Israel very uneasy.
Finally, France, and as a result the EU, could become more anti-immigration, economically more protectionist and inward-looking. Sixth, the combination of a Trump presidency and a geopolitically weaker EU is sure to be welcomed by powers like China and Russia.
The author is a former Indian Ambassador to France and currently Dean and Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University. Views expressed are personal.
© Indian Express Ltd.
First uploaded: June 28, 2024 8:36 AM
[ad_2]
Source link
