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Germany, France and Poland are touting the “Weimar Triangle” as the new centerpiece of Europe’s common defense in response to signals of concern from the United States, and although experts see potential synergies, the three The authors warn that approaches by experts are rarely sufficient. .
Following former US President Donald Trump’s controversial comments on the US’ future involvement in NATO, talks between the leaders of the three countries on Monday (February 12) included an agreement on defense cooperation between France, Germany and Poland. Strengthening was a hot topic.
With the establishment of a pro-EU government in Poland, foreign ministers and government leaders have agreed to discuss the semi-dormant Weimar War, a form of dialogue between France, Germany and Poland, in order to promote greater independence in terms of European defense. The triangle was revived.
With the threat of NATO-skeptical President Trump returning to power in 2025, this may be exactly what the EU needs, but experts say the Weimar Triangle could do all the heavy lifting on its own. I doubt whether it can be carried out.
“The withdrawal of the United States from NATO and the reduction of its activities would be irreplaceable.” […] In the short term,” Rafael Ross, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, told Euractic.
Without the United States, NATO would lack a credible deterrent against Moscow above all else, Ross added.
The EU’s defense capabilities have experienced continuous growth over the past few years – From research and development to joint production – Especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
But Ross warned that the EU would not be able to quickly ease Washington’s presence if Russia investigated its own defenses within five to eight years, as European governments fear.
“This will require a significant increase in defense spending beyond the Weimar Triangle countries,” he added, pointing to deficiencies in areas such as transport aircraft, military intelligence and logistics.
Where Weimar can help
Nevertheless, the “Weimar Triangle” was a much-needed means of bringing three of Europe’s most important militaries “closer to points of difference,” says Sorbonne EU scholar Laurent Walzet. told Euractive.
“Poland is buying a lot of things.” [military] Equipment from the US and South Korea (…), Poles do not believe in French equipment [nuclear] “France’s failure to support Poland against the Nazi invasion of Germany in 1939 remains fresh in our collective memory,” he said.
Such a format could bring pro-American Warsaw closer to protectionist France if Mr. Trump were to become president again in 2024, driven by the urgent need to strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy. Yes,” Warze added.
Ross agreed, pointing to synergies in military logistics and stating that “the transport axis between Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states is extremely important.” [and] “It could be strengthened as France’s involvement increases.”
Strengthening dialogue may improve the previously tense atmosphere between partners.
“If relations between Warsaw and Paris have cooled since 2016, the difference with Berlin has been extreme,” said Adam Hakow, European defense expert at the German Marshall Fund. I got it. For Monday’s meeting.
Tusk flirts with German Skyshield
Still, significant obstacles must be overcome for cooperation to have an impact, among which Ross cites the notorious slowness of European defense cooperation.
Walze noted that French-German cooperation alone is difficult enough, noting that the development of Europe’s fighter program, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), is progressing at a glacial pace. .
Moreover, the three governments appear uncertain about how to move this format from a dialogue format to a solid defense alliance.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, at a joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Monday, declined to name specific defense projects the three countries could cooperate on.
But Tusk suggested Poland might consider joining the European Sky Shield Initiative, a German-led coalition aiming to build a European air defense system.
“Today we also discussed the need to strengthen bilateral and European cooperation, including in air defence,” he said.
Walse therefore warned that we should not expect “remarkable progress” but praised that “at least a new Weimar dynamism is beginning.”
Ross noted that the “unprecedented agreement between the German, French and Polish governments that Russia is now the biggest threat” looks like a promising start.
But Paris, Berlin and Warsaw added that they would not be able to proceed down this path without the cooperation of Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom, partners in south-eastern Europe and the United States.
[Edited by Alice Taylor]
Read more at Euractiv
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