US political dysfunction is a threat to global stability: report

Many Americans look beyond their borders and see a dangerous world of escalating wars, escalating violence, and deepening instability.

But a new report from leading political risk firm Eurasia Group says Americans should look in the mirror and see that America’s political dysfunction and threats of violence are terrorizing people around the world, and that the situation is grave. It suggests that it is wise to be aware of what is causing it. Threat to international stability.

“The United States is already the most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy in the world, and whoever wins the 2024 election will make this problem even worse.” – Eurasia Group

“A third of the world’s population will vote this year, but the unprecedented and dysfunctional US election will have by far the most significant impact on global security, stability and economic prospects. ” claims the Top Risks 2024 report.

“The outcome will affect the fate of 8 billion people, but only 160 million Americans will have a say in it, and the winner will be determined by just tens of thousands of voters in a small number of battleground states. The most powerful country in the world will face a major challenge to its core political institutions: the checks and balances afforded by free and fair elections, the peaceful transfer of power, and the separation of powers. It is. ”

Founded in 1998 by political scientist and entrepreneur Ian Bremer, Eurasia Group analyzes global developments through the prism of political developments and risks. Eurasia Group President Bremer and Chairman Cliff Kapchan are the authors of this year’s report outlining the top 10 risks facing the world.The report also discusses several issues It’s not as serious as it seems.

“Three wars will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its third month; and US vs. US ready to start at any time,” the report said. ing.

The report identifies political polarization and social unrest in the United States as the most serious global risks. The magazine said this year’s presidential election “will exacerbate this country’s political divisions, test American democracy to a degree this country has not seen in 150 years, and undermine America’s credibility on the world stage.” ” is predicted.

“The world’s most dysfunctional advanced democracy”

The report argues, without mincing words, that both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are “completely unfit for public office.” Trump’s candidacy has shaken the international system, and a second Trump presidency “would cause significant damage to American democracy,” the newspaper said.

“The United States is already the most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy in the world. Whoever wins the 2024 election will make this problem worse. “It is essentially a coin toss; the only certainty is that there will be continued damage to the social fabric, political system, and international standing of the United States,” the report said.

According to the report, America’s culture wars are deeply damaging because red states and blue states disagree on a variety of socio-economic issues and the nation is a patchwork of conflicting requirements and regulations. It is said that he is giving.

In 40 of the 50 US states, one political party controls the governor’s mansion and both houses of Congress. As a result, in many parts of the country, important public policy is decided by one political party with little input from the other, creating anger, confusion, and incoherence.

“Forced to navigate conflicting laws, regulations, and court rulings across red and blue states, business leaders face increased policy uncertainty and regulatory risk, and a lose-lose situation,” the report said. “It will fall into the environment.”

The Middle East “will not be quiet for a while”

The second major risk is political turmoil and violence in the Middle East, which has become even more dangerous and volatile since the report was published in early January.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on September 30, 2023, that the Middle East is quieter than it has been in the past 20 years. A week later, on October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.

The report cited the war in Gaza, attacks by Houthi militants on Israeli and American warships and international commercial shipping, and violence by Shi’ite militias in Iraq, and said: “The region is no longer quiet and it hasn’t been for years. It won’t last,” he said. And Syria.

“But the most dangerous division remains between Israelis and Palestinians,” the magazine said.

The report predicts that Ukraine will be effectively partitioned this year, a difficult development for both Kiev and the West. Russia claims it has command of the battlefield, has a large cache of weapons, and is ready to seize Ukrainian territory. In the coming critical years, Ukraine must resolve human resource issues, increase weapons production and develop a realistic military strategy. But in the near future, Ukraine will have to dig in and defend itself.

“As a result, Ukraine must make progress in mobilization, training, defense production, strategic planning, and political infighting,” the report states. “If most of these missions are successful, Kyiv will be in a strong position to defend its existing territory in the coming years, and in the future it will enjoy solid security from Western powers and eventually NATO membership. , reconstruction aid, EU integration, etc. It would be a better geopolitical trajectory than was plausibly expected before the Russian invasion two years ago.”

Meanwhile, Russia has suffered a major strategic setback with its invasion of Ukraine, the report claims. As a result of the war, NATO has become even stronger, with Finland joining as a new member and Sweden expected to join the alliance soon. The EU could grow as well. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova may become new members. Needless to say, this is not the outcome Russian President Vladimir Putin sought when he invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Out-of-control AI, an axis of rogues, and the Chinese economy

The rapid development of AI will continue to baffle policymakers, confound the rest of us, and pose a serious global risk, the report says.

“AI governance will change in 2024 as regulatory efforts stall, tech companies remain largely unconstrained, and far more powerful AI models and tools proliferate beyond government control,” the report said. “The gaps will become clearer.”

“As the power of AI models increases exponentially, the technology itself is outpacing efforts to contain it in real time…The longer AI goes unmanaged, the greater the risk of systemic crisis, and the harder it is for governments to catch up. becomes difficult.”

The report identifies the “rogue axis” consisting of Russia, North Korea, and Iran as a serious danger. “They are agents of disruption in today’s geopolitical order, intent on undermining existing institutions and governments and the principles that uphold them.” Closer collaboration between these rogue states and Mutual aid will become an increasing threat to world stability as we strengthen each other’s capabilities and become increasingly destructive.

Another risk is a slump in the Chinese economy. The concentration of power at the top of the political system under President Xi Jinping has stifled domestic policy debate and undermined economic vitality. China’s strong growth is a thing of the past, the report says. China needs a “real shift toward bold reforms,” ​​but that is unlikely to happen.

Angry and unpredictable voters in a global election year

The global inflation shock of 2021, which led to high interest rates, continues to weigh on the economy, the report said. Most large economies are suffering from lackluster growth, and some could slip into recession this year. In a year when two-thirds of adults in the democratic world vote, economic hardship will deepen public discontent and fuel populism. An angry and fearful electorate is unpredictable and threatens good governance, the report warns.

The report states that while tensions between the United States and China may ease, “the world’s most important geopolitical relationship remains fundamentally hostile and characterized by mistrust.” There is. Several flashpoints, including Taiwan, will exacerbate bilateral tensions throughout 2024, but both countries want to avoid “major division or conflict.”

The least convincing part of the report is the part about climate change. This phenomenon is not listed as a top risk in the report. Rather, the authors say the world is “moving towards a collective, if slow, response” to climate change. “The only question is who will compromise and how much, and who will pay what and when,” they say.

The troubling undercurrent to all these problems is a lack of global leadership, the report says.

“The United States, the world’s only surviving superpower, does not want to be the world’s policeman, the builder of global trade, or the cheerleader of global values. And we are not prepared to take on that role ourselves. No other country has this.”

Click here to read the report.