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The Munich Security Conference, the world’s premier annual gathering on international security, concluded last month. World leaders and experts discussed a wide range of concerns, but the Russian threat and the fate of Ukraine took center stage. Events in recent weeks, on the eve of the second anniversary of the war, have strengthened the former and made the latter look gloomier.
This has left European countries looking inward and wondering what it means for their future security as their main security guarantor, the United States, exhibits erratic behavior. .
Russia also just secured its biggest battlefield gain in almost a year, with Ukraine withdrawing from the main eastern city of Avdiivka after months of intense fighting. This drew attention to Congress’ failure to pass a new military aid package for Ukraine. Arms and ammunition stockpiles have been dwindling in recent months, leaving Ukraine vastly inferior to Russia in manpower and weaponry. With a majority of Congress in favor of continuing aid to Ukraine, the Republican-led House’s decision to take a vacation without voting on the aid bill reflects America’s deeply dysfunctional political system and its own It exposes the dangers of relying on the political system for defense. .
This is a difficult lesson to learn for Europe, which has been doing the same thing for decades. Unlike Ukraine, Europe’s dependence is a choice. Most countries in Europe have recently taken steps to address their defense deficiencies by increasing spending and looking for ways to strengthen their industrial capabilities. But the response was too slow, the gaps were too wide, and the lack of cohesion and urgency nearly wasted nearly two years.
NATO’s disproportionate dependence on US forces is nothing new. Presidents and other political leaders have complained about this policy for decades, but the United States too has been content with the level of control maintained by its large contributions and has done little to encourage change.
But that reality could change much faster than European countries can adapt. This fact has not been forgotten by those in Munich in the wake of recent inflammatory statements by former President Donald Trump. President Trump said at a campaign rally that if re-elected, he would encourage Russia to do “whatever it wants” with NATO members that do not honor U.S. treaty commitments to NATO and meet NATO spending guidelines. did. Although some dismissed it as a campaign rant, John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, said he had no doubt that Trump would find a way to abandon NATO if he was re-elected. He said no.
Despite increased defense spending in some countries, the United States still contributes more than two-thirds of NATO’s budget. Europe’s two largest economies, Germany and France, are still spending less than 2% on their defense commitments, but in a sign of growing concern, both announced earlier this month that they plan to meet that goal by the end of the year. Announced.
But increases in defense spending alone will not be enough to make up for what would be lost without U.S. support. For example, expanding European arms production will not happen overnight, and arms producers need firmer financial commitments before investing in expanded production.
In Munich, some European leaders spoke frankly about the need for urgent action to avert a collapse of Ukraine that would bring the Russian threat closer to the surface. The Czech Republic’s president said his country had found 800,000 shells elsewhere that it could immediately buy and transport to Ukraine, and Denmark’s prime minister said Denmark would donate its entire artillery stockpile.
Such a move may help bridge the short-term rift in Ukraine, but it will do little to strengthen European security in the long term. Perhaps this period of uncertainty will pass with little impact on NATO and with Europe still secure. The House of Representatives could still pass a Ukraine aid bill and give Ukraine a boost before it’s too late. And if President Joe Biden is re-elected, U.S. commitment to NATO and Ukraine will be secured for at least another four years.
But even so, Europe should keep in mind the unpredictable risks posed by the United States and do what is necessary now to increase its security self-sufficiency. This may be your last chance.
Elizabeth Shackelford is a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune. She is a former U.S. diplomat and author of The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age.
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