“Two Sessions”: What to look out for in China’s biggest political event of the year

Prime Minister Lee is expected to outline economic trends over the past year, including the much-watched GDP growth rate, and set out new growth targets, policy issues, and a budget for the coming year.

Over the next few days, it is still unclear how long the session will last, but parliamentary work reports, budgets and other bills will be debated and generally rubber-stamped.

Other areas of interest include the foreign minister’s press conference, President Xi Jinping’s closing ceremony speech, and the prime minister’s press conference after the closing ceremony.

GDP and budget

China also faces an aging population and shrinking workforce as a result of its infamous one-child policy since the late 1970s, and a declining birthrate even after the policy was relaxed in 2016.

Analysts expect China to set a similar 5% growth target next year. However, it remains to be seen what policy tools, such as fiscal stimulus or structural reforms, the government will use to achieve this.

Neil Thomas, a researcher on China politics at the Center for China Analysis at the Asian Social Policy Research Institute, said this year’s two sessions will be important.

“China’s trajectory has never been more uncertain than during the Xi administration, so people at home and abroad are seeking reassurance that China’s economic problems are understood and that they know how to solve them,” he said. I have high hopes for the leadership.”

Lee will also hand over the budget. Annual financial reports are usually deliberated on the first day of the National People’s Congress and released later in the week.

Defense spending will be in the spotlight amid heightened tensions over self-governing Taiwan and the South China Sea. The People’s Liberation Army is increasing its military activities in the region, and reaching its modernization goal of 2027 is not far away.

Analysts expect the defense budget to rise steadily in line with economic growth and a 7.2% increase last year.

What about Mr. Lee?

Lee is expected to end his first year as prime minister with a policy speech and press conference that will provide further insight into his role and style.

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said Lee’s influence on economic affairs within the party-state system appears to have declined compared to previous prime ministers.

This was especially true after China’s cabinet revised work rules to focus on the “implementation” of party decisions, Wu said, adding that Li’s role was “not really comparable to his predecessor.”

He expects Lee to give a shorter work report than previous prime ministers.

foreign affairs

The focus of the two sessions will be primarily domestic, but the foreign minister’s press conference will determine the direction of diplomacy.

Thomas, of the Asia Social Policy Research Institute, said Beijing can be expected to “avoid hostility” ahead of important elections in Western countries.

He also said the foreign minister is likely to “emphasize stability” as Beijing seeks to improve business confidence among foreign investors.

The press conference may also touch on relations with the United States, which have improved since talks last year shortly after the United States shot down a Chinese reconnaissance balloon.

military purge

There are other uncertainties that could be announced during the legislative session.

The third plenary session of the party’s central committee, the party’s largest decision-making body, is usually held in the fall, and the economic direction and key personnel are announced ahead of the two sessions.

But it has not been held this year, with officials suggesting that may be due to pending decisions regarding the purge of senior military officials and the dismissal of the foreign minister.

Although Dong-jun has been appointed as the new defense minister, he has not yet been appointed to the State Councilorship, which is usually also given to the foreign minister.

The “Removal and Appointment” bill was approved at a meeting of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee this week, but while it was confirmed that Qin had resigned from the Legislative Committee, no further details were provided.

For now, both Mr. Qin and Mr. Li Shangfu remain full members of the Central Committee.