‘Two sessions’: China scraps decades of political tradition as President Xi Jinping tightens control amid economic hardship

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Beijing
CNN
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Thousands of delegates from across China gathered in Beijing this week to kick off the country’s most prestigious annual political event and discuss how leaders will steer the world’s second-largest economy over the coming year. China intends to do so in an attempt to dispel deepening concerns about China. The challenges it faces.

The highly planned, multi-day event, known as the “Two Sessions” convened by China’s rubber-stamp legislature and top advisory body, was an opportunity for Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his top Communist Party officials to project a sense of confidence. This is likely to become a major topic of discussion.

Primarily ceremonial gatherings have taken on increased importance this year as China’s economy has been reeling from a real estate sector crisis, high local government debt, deflation, a stock market crash and tech tensions with the United States. All fueling questions about whether China will be defeated. It will run out of steam before achieving its goal of becoming a developed world power.

The meeting also includes a significant break with precedent. That means eliminating the closing press conference by the Chinese prime minister, a political tradition that has been the centerpiece of the rally for three decades. At times, it provides a valuable window into the thinking of China’s No. 2 leader. Who is nominally in charge of the economy?

Press Secretary Lu Qingjiang also told reporters in Beijing on Monday, ahead of the opening day of the Legislative Council, that reporters will not be allowed to work for the remainder of the current five-year political cycle, “unless there are very special circumstances.” He said there would be no press conference and said there would be other interview opportunities for the media. Event. This year’s legislative session also lasts just seven days, shorter than its typical format before the pandemic.

The changes could further raise widespread concerns about transparency around China’s policy-making and further erode the prime minister’s profile, which had already been affected by Mr. Xi’s iron-fisted control over all policy areas, including the economy. expensive. Under Xi, the prime minister and the State Council, which serves as China’s cabinet, have been increasingly sidelined.

It also means Mr. Xi is in the spotlight as economic pain fuels discontent within China. The rally marked the start of a radical third term as president, as he consolidated his power at the top of his party and installed a slew of officials, apparently chosen for their loyalty as well as their experience, as leaders. It was held one year after.

A year later, the hoped-for post-COVID-19 recovery has yet to fully materialize, with young people struggling to find work, investors grappling with market losses, and small and medium-sized businesses struggling to find work. As business owners struggle to survive, there is growing skepticism about the direction the leaders and prime minister are charting. his new team. Mr. Xi has also overseen political turmoil within his own ranks, further hampering the start of his new term.

These challenges may not pose a threat to Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful and authoritative leader in decades. But how Xi’s team deals with these concerns will not only affect the future of China and its 1.4 billion people, but also the entire global economy. And Mr. Xi’s top executives are probably feeling that pressure as they attend the meeting.

Policymakers, investors and executives in capitals around the world will also be watching closely, especially in a year when the U.S. presidential election is likely to further strain relations between the world’s two largest economies.

“The government wants to use this platform to send a signal that the Chinese economy in general is OK and on the right track,” said Chen Gan, a senior research fellow at the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore. said.

“Right now, there are a lot of questions and doubts about the ability of the new government… (so) they have no confidence that this government, the new government led by (Xi’s No. 2) Premier Li Qiang, is capable of dealing with economic problems. “I want to show off,” he said.

The gathering, held in Beijing’s cavernous Great Hall of the People, is the only time each year that the nearly 3,000-member National People’s Congress meets in person.

The party has little power to determine the country’s course, as major policy directions are set by the party, whose elite members make decisions in closed-door meetings throughout the year.

But the two meetings are a major challenge for the notoriously opaque Chinese government, which will unveil economic, social and foreign policy strategies and announce key indicators including China’s economic growth targets, budget deficit cap and next year’s military spending. It will be an important place for

It is also an opportunity for elite leaders to hear from delegates from across the country and from different sectors of society, but as Mr. Although the opportunities for such exchanges are shrinking, they deviate from the party’s policy.

Such restrictions have also appeared in recent economic debates, with some prominent economic analysts facing social media regulations that appear to be aimed at limiting their ability to speak.

“The regime often uses annual conferences to secure support from Chinese society and increase confidence in the market,” said Xuezhi Guo, a political science professor at Guilford University in the US.

“This is especially important given challenges such as China’s real estate downturn, stock market crisis, high unemployment and weak demand,” he said.

Observers are wondering how leaders are moving on key issues such as China’s position on the self-governing island of Taiwan, its relationship with the United States, and its efforts to boost innovation as the U.S. government tightens high-tech export controls. It will be necessary to analyze whether they are discussing or commenting.

Guo said that Xi should adopt a more conciliatory stance toward the United States, temporarily shelving confrontational ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ and supporting both bureaucrats and technocrats to ensure China’s economic stability. There is also the possibility that efforts may be redirected in the direction of doing so.”

Such a change in tone may also be signaled by the appointment of a new foreign minister at this year’s gathering. There was no mention of personnel changes in the event agenda announced Monday, but ahead of the gathering analysts said something could happen in the coming days.

The role was expected by many to be temporary, but since July, the newly appointed successor, Mr. Hata Gang, has disappeared from public view and was dismissed without explanation. The post was subsequently held by Wang Yi, a senior diplomat and former foreign minister.

This dramatic moment was followed just weeks by the disappearance, dismissal, and dismissal of another of Xi Jinping’s handpicked third-term senior officials, then-Minister of Defense Li Shangfu. Again, this was done without explanation in tandem with an anti-corruption campaign and an apparent purge within the Chinese military.

Analysts said the sudden shake-up did not pose a threat to Mr. Xi’s firm grip on power, but it did raise questions about Mr. Xi’s judgment, as the vacancy left by his dismissal remained.

In addition to the foreign minister role, two high-ranking posts in China’s cabinet previously held by Li and Qin also remain vacant.

Signs leading up to the rally suggest Beijing is preparing to focus on supporting economic growth next year, but it is unlikely that China will announce any major stimulus.

“The Chinese government will likely use the second session to announce strategic measures aimed at boosting short-term confidence in the Chinese economy,” said Neil Thomas, a research fellow at the China Center at the Asian Social Policy Institute. “However, President Xi’s basic strategy of state-led development will not change.” analysis.

The announcement of economic growth targets for 2024, which Prime Minister Lee is expected to announce on Tuesday, is one of the most important topics to watch over the two sessions.

Analysts widely expect Mr. Lee to unveil a relatively ambitious growth target of “around 5%,” a sign that policymakers remain focused on economic growth despite mounting challenges. ing.

Observers will also be watching closely to see how the market reacts. Ahead of the rally, many are skeptical whether the confidence outlook and policies announced at the event will be enough to restore optimism.

But even if this were not the case, it is unlikely to weaken Mr. Xi’s power.

“The country’s economic problems are eroding public confidence in the leadership’s ability to deliver higher growth and improved lives,” said Asia Society’s Thomas.

“But Xi doesn’t need to win elections, so what matters most to him is elite control, not popular support. And the economy is far from collapsing, which would overwhelm the party’s sophisticated repressive apparatus. looks like.”