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Diplomats in Washington held television viewing parties Thursday night as they drafted cables to send to their superiors back home. Leaders in different time zones were up early to scrutinize Biden’s gaffes and Trump’s inaccuracies. And as they considered how to adjust a strategy that appeals to Trump’s zero-sum worldview, many were convinced the current occupant of the White House wouldn’t be there for much longer.
Leaders expecting friendlier treatment from Trump, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, may have less incentive to work with a lame-duck Biden administration as U.S. rivals jockey for advantage ahead of the policy change, analysts say. Senior Biden administration officials have already said they will do so. They believe Putin is waiting for the results of the election before making any decisions about the future of the Ukraine war.
“The Kremlin has a strong incentive to at least pretend to negotiate in order to gain an advantage ahead of the Trump administration,” said Constanze Stelzenmueller, director of the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Iran may also be trying to gain an advantage ahead of Trump’s more confrontational approach, she said.
U.S. allies whose worldviews broadly align with Biden’s will also have more incentive to get along with Trump, just as they did during Biden’s presidency when NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg regularly praised U.S. presidents for their tough talk on other countries about defense spending.
During the debate, Trump bragged about his strategic praise for Stoltenberg, saying, “The NATO secretary general said, ‘Mr. Trump has done the best job I’ve ever seen.'”
World leaders questioned Biden’s future.
“Marcus Aurelius was a great emperor but he got the succession wrong,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski wrote to X, a rare relatively direct, public comment on the dispute from a sitting allied diplomat. “It is important to manage our path as we ride off into the sunset.”
As the debate unfolded, diplomats and other global policymakers shared the same real-time thoughts as many in the American audience: Biden and Trump may be only three years apart, but the current president’s behavior is showing weakness. And Biden’s policies are The debate is unlikely to have a significant impact on the vote.
“Initially, Biden seemed totally lost,” one diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the ally’s domestic politics, said in a text message while the debate was still ongoing. “As always, it’s not what you say, it’s how you say it and how you appear.”
European politicians, who have long been the target of Trump’s harshest foreign policy criticism over trade and defense spending, said they needed to accelerate plans and policies already underway to prepare for Trump’s return to the White House.
“This night will not be forgotten. The Democrats must now rethink their choice, and Germany must prepare full speed for an uncertain future. If we do not take responsibility for European security now, no one will,” Norbert Röttgen, an ally of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, wrote on X.
Foreign leaders have already sought meetings with Trump’s foreign policy advisers and surrogates to understand the potential of his policies and lobby for their own interests: British Foreign Secretary David Cameron visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago in the spring, and Polish President Andrzej Duda dined with Trump in New York in April, a month after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met with the former president.
Foreign visitors to Washington in recent days have been approaching the Trump campaign. In addition to meetings with sitting Democratic officials, they often request meetings with conservative foreign policy strategists known to consult with Trump on international affairs, such as Keith Kellogg, former national security adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence, and Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official during the Trump administration. Many also request panel discussions at conservative think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation, which has brought together Republican thought leaders to plan the presidential transition.
One senior European diplomat summed up his country’s Trump strategy around three pillars: aligning with a tough China policy, increasing defense spending and investing in the United States.
“I can say that this process is ongoing,” the diplomat said.
As Biden manages America’s significant involvement in two major wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, allies and adversaries will be adjusting their strategies to fit the U.S. election timeline.
Trump made that promise during the debate, declaring that if he won, he would resolve the Ukraine conflict before taking office and arrange for the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who has been wrongfully imprisoned in Russia since March 2023. (A Kremlin spokesman said Friday that Putin had slept during the debate, a matter of internal U.S. affairs.)
In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza are fading and fears of a broader war between Israel and Hezbollah are growing as Prime Minister Netanyahu is more likely to remain in power after the November U.S. elections. Trump and Netanyahu had a close relationship when they were both in power, but their feelings flared as Netanyahu acknowledged Biden’s 2020 election victory and Trump continued to object to the results. Netanyahu has blamed Biden for the slow pace of arms deliveries. The Biden administration disputes the issue, but tensions will likely remain high as the war drags on. Analysts said the U.S. president’s prospects were weakening.
“It’s pretty dire, that’s the only way to sum it up,” former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt said on X, posting a link to an analysis of Trump’s second foreign policy term written by the European Council on Foreign Relations, which he co-chairs.
“I wish this @ecfr analysis wasn’t such must-read, but it’s not. It definitely is now,” Bildt wrote.
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