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The world is watching Iran. After Israel assassinated a senior commander in its embassy annex in Damascus, one thing all diplomats, generals and politicians from Tehran to Washington could agree on was that Iran had to respond, too.
Speculation about when, where and how has continued for nearly two weeks, fueled by reports from U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran or its proxies are preparing an attack on Israel.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized a cargo ship linked to Israel and entered Iranian territorial waters on Saturday, days after the Iranian government announced it could close the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil shipping route. I let it happen. Israel accused Tehran of piracy, and a military spokesman said further escalation would “incur consequences.”
Israel yesterday put its military on high alert and canceled school trips and other youth activities scheduled for the opening days of Passover.
Announcing the move in a teleconference, military chief spokesman Maj. Gen. Daniel Hagari said dozens of fighter jets were flying as part of the readiness.
That in itself means a victory for Tehran, said Yagir Levi, a professor of military sociology at Israel’s Open University. “Iran doesn’t need to do anything. The result is that many Israelis are frightened and afraid to leave their homes, many are traveling abroad, and many are canceling their plans. “There are,” Levy said. “I think someone in Tehran is very happy to follow events in Israel.”
Additionally, President Joe Biden cut short a weekend stay at his beach house in Delaware and returned to the White House to meet with his national security team and monitor the situation. Shortly after the White House announced the change in plans, the Pentagon reported that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had met with his Israeli counterpart “to discuss urgent threats in the region.” Iran’s options range from the most provocative of directly attacking Israeli targets from within its borders to using Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Yemen’s Houthis to attack Israeli-linked targets abroad. .
Mariam Alemzadeh, associate professor of Iranian history and politics at the University of Oxford, said a direct attack from mainland Iran would be a significant departure from the country’s record of restrained responses to attacks. She said, “The government calls ideological appeasement of a small number of hard-line supporters ‘strategic patience.” However, this was also the correct strategic move from a realpolitik perspective.” said.
“Iran’s military equipment is suitable at best for asymmetric warfare; it cannot rely on international support, even from lukewarm allies China and Russia; and its economy is under pressure from years of international sanctions and domestic It is on the verge of collapse due to corruption and mismanagement.
Even the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, by the US in 2020 was followed by only non-lethal attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Because that’s not their way,” said Hamid Dabashi, a professor of Iranian studies at Columbia University. “They’re more into a long-term asymmetric war.” But the April 1 attack on Damascus posed a particularly strong test of Iran’s restraint. In the incident, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, another Quds commander, his deputy, and several diplomats were killed inside the embassy annex, which diplomatic conventions consider Iranian territory.
“In all my years of monitoring the shadow war between Iran and Israel, I have never seen such bottom-up pressure on the regime from core constituencies,” said Director of the International Crisis Iran Project. Ali Baez said. group. “People are saying [the government] A response is necessary, but the strategy of strategic patience has failed and resulted in Israel being pushed too far. ”
Recognizing the need to respond, Iran has stepped up its diplomatic efforts as its Western allies, who have been publicly at odds with the Israeli government over Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe, are once again rallying behind the country.
President Joe Biden has put aside his dispute with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and issued a word of warning to Iran. “Please don’t,” he said, adding that the United States was “dedicated to the defense of Israel.”
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on Saturday that he had discussed “our shared concerns about the Iranian threat” with Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz. Further escalation in this region is in no one’s interest,” he said.
But despite the public support, officials are privately dissatisfied with the attack, which undermined weeks of efforts to prevent the war in Gaza from escalating into a regional conflict. The United States quickly notified Iran that it had not been informed of or authorized the attack.
“Israel is essentially putting the entire region on red alert,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University. “The United States basically sent a message to the entire region, including Iran, that it cannot control Israel.”
A call to Iran from foreign ministers for Europe and the region called for restraint in the country’s response, suggesting that despite public support for Israel, hopes of avoiding escalation rest with Iran. There is. Many regional analysts see even greater appetite for a full-scale conflict in Israel. There, hardliners rather than Iran are pushing for a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah.
“We actually calculate in a strange way that Iran is very strategic,” Nasr said. “All the foreign ministers who have called us hope that Iran is not actually the Iran of our imagination, that it is not reckless, that it is not irreligious, that it is not suicidal. Our hope is that they will actually understand the complexity and act accordingly.”
It added that the country was looking for ways to send a message of deterrence while increasing international pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
There is a strong sense among Iranian leaders that the international focus has shifted away from the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, causing a major rift with allies. Any escalation that brings the United States closer to Netanyahu would be a victory for the beleaguered Israeli leader, facing growing protests at home and pressure from abroad over Gaza.
His position has already been strengthened in the short term by the fallout from the attacks and efforts to prevent escalation. Critics have questioned whether he was politically motivated to launch such provocative attacks.
Retired Gen. Tamir Heyman, a former military intelligence chief and now managing director of the National Security Institute think tank, said Netanyahu had mishandled relations with the United States but denied there was any political motive for the assassination. said. “I know how the system works and I know how the strike was probably planned and carried out and what timing elements would be required,” he said. . “I don’t think it’s political behind the timing, I think it’s an operational tactical opportunity.” [manipulation]”
He sees Iran making carefully calibrated displays of strength, but nothing drastic enough to prompt escalation to a full-scale war or draw in the United States. But even a moderate response would be just the next move in a dangerous game between longtime adversaries. “This is a first strike. The next question will be what Israeli counter-retaliation will be.”
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