The US biofuel industry is booming

The US biofuel industry is booming.

This is what Rystad Energy said in a recent release sent to RigZone, which said: “Thanks to the increasing demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the coming years, new production volumes will increase. A sharp increase is imminent,” he added.

Rystad said in a release that U.S. biofuel production will increase by about 53% by the middle of the next decade, “jumping from 850,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2023 to about 1.3 million boepd in 2035.” The company’s research predicts that .

“Domestic production is expected to exceed 1 million barrels per day as early as 2026,” the company added.

The role of biofuels will continue to expand as governments and industry strive to decarbonize the transportation sector, Rystad said in the release.

“Widely considered a core element of the energy transition, plant-based alternatives to traditional fuels such as gasoline and diesel will play a fundamental role in limiting emissions from road vehicles, ships and aviation. “Possible,” the company said in a release.

“For example, SAF is similar to conventional jet fuel, but is produced using plant-based feedstocks such as fats, oils, and agricultural and municipal waste,” the report added.

“SAF has the potential to significantly reduce the aviation industry’s emissions impact, as its use requires minimal aircraft and logistical modifications,” the report continued.

Rystad said in a release that the United States is expected to dominate the production of both ethanol and diesel, as well as advanced biofuels, with a focus on 2035.

“The United States will produce approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of biofuels in 2035, representing 40% of total global production,” the report said.

“Of that 1.3 million barrels, advanced fuels will account for about 50% of domestic production,” the paper continued.

Rystad said Europe and Brazil are the next largest producers, but “are far behind the United States.” Europe is expected to produce around 580,000 barrels per day in 2035, and Brazil 510,000 barrels per day, Rystad outlined in his statement.

“Biofuels are likely to play an important role in the future low-carbon energy world, and the United States is uniquely positioned to take advantage of it,” said Artem Abramov, head of clean technology research at Rystad Energy. stated in the statement.

Abramoff added: “Market momentum has increased in recent years and growth is certain until the end of this decade, but some uncertainty remains until the 2030s.”

Rystad emphasized in the release that its production forecast uses the company’s base-case expectations for technological advances, electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and biofuel feedstock availability, and that existing policy He stated that this is based on the assumption that support will continue.

The company noted that it is also planning two other scenarios: a high case and a low case. The high case assumes rapid technological progress, slow EV adoption, favorable biofuel policies, and abundant raw material availability, while the low case assumes slow technological development, accelerated EV adoption, and biofuel policies. A reversal of support and raw material supply challenges are expected, the release outlined.

According to graphs included in the release, in Rystad’s high case, biofuel production is expected to exceed 1.6 million barrels per day in 2035, and in the low case, production in 2035 is expected to be around 1 million barrels per day. ing. This graph shows that US biofuel production was approximately 600,000 barrels per day at the time. year 2012. Rystad’s U.S. biofuel forecast includes ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF, the graph reveals.

The United States will be the largest producer of biofuels at 728,000 barrels per day in 2022, according to the Energy Institute’s latest global energy statistics released last year. This figure represents a 6.3 percent increase over the previous year and will account for 38.1 percent of total biofuel production in 2022, the study highlighted.

From 2012 to 2022, U.S. biofuel production increased by an average of 3.2% annually, according to the report.

According to the review, Brazil ranked second in terms of biofuel production in 2022 at 409,000 barrels/day, followed by Indonesia in third place at 174,000 barrels/day. Brazil’s production accounted for 21.4% of total biofuel production in 2022, while Indonesia’s production accounted for 9.1%, the review noted.

EI’s biofuel production includes biogasoline, such as ethanol, and biodiesel.

To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com