The threat of Russian nationalism looms over Europe

The European Union’s foreign policy chief made the obvious statement in a speech on defense in Brussels last month. “After the fall of the Berlin Wall, we imagined ourselves surrounded by a circle of friends. This world is being replaced by a ring of fire around us,” said Josep Borrell.

Borrell’s partners in the transatlantic alliance should heed his stark warning. Europe faces intractable national problems on its eastern frontier that threaten to rewrite the continent’s security order. Russia is seeking to reassert what it considers its legitimate sphere of influence in its war of aggression against Ukraine.

The collapse of communism is often seen as a peaceful process. The revolutions that swept across the Eastern bloc in 1989 overthrew communist regimes without a single shot being fired, except in Romania. But it was also a sudden and unexpected break in Russia’s national identity, with serious implications for European security.

Lynn Hartnett, an associate professor at Villanova University and an expert on Russian history, told me that Russia has always been a contiguous empire, with large cities and colonies sharing common land. According to Hartnett, the erosion of what constituted both Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Empire involved an existential crisis regarding Russia’s security and identity.

Weak national consciousness is one of Russia’s many complexities. The Mongol occupation from the 13th century to her 15th century meant that Russian national identity was devoted to national defense. And in the vast Eurasian Plain, with few natural boundaries, defense took the form of territorial expansion. Since then, the urge to “collect Russian land” has shaped Russia’s understanding of itself as a hostile international system.

President Vladimir Putin weaponized this conceptualization of Russia’s self-identity when launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Russian president famously lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century” and “the end of historic Russia.” ” To President Putin, Ukraine was just an artificial state, made possible by Lenin’s ethnic policies in 1922 and its separation from Russia as the collapse of the Soviet Union took hold.

But Russian neo-revisionism is not the only threat to Ukraine. The resurgence of Russian expansionism also makes the Western Balkans vulnerable to Serbia’s national aspirations. Like Russia, Serbia is a country whose national consciousness is intertwined with its historical struggle against foreign occupation. Kosovo’s deep attachment to Serbian identity dates back to the Battle of Kosovo Polje in 1389, when Serbs fought against Ottoman aggression.

NATO justified its intervention in Kosovo in 1999 by saying it had a responsibility to protect the rights of Kosovo Albanians against Slobodan Milosevic’s ethnic cleansing policies. But for many in Serbia, NATO’s involvement in their country’s affairs is a source of resentment. This inspired a political ideology of revivalism in Serbian politics, called the Serbian World. Alexander Boulin, Serbia’s newly appointed pro-Russian deputy prime minister, said: “The task of this generation of politicians is to form a Serb world, that is, to unite Serbs wherever they live.” ” he said.

Dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War order that tore apart their national identities has led Russia and Serbia to reorient themselves toward China. Trade and investment between the two countries increased rapidly. As a result, Moscow and Belgrade have emerged as important partners for China in its geostrategic competition with the United States and in what China perceives as US violations of national sovereignty and the principle of non-interference. There is.

China tolerates Russia’s neo-revisionist intentions. Xi Jinping insists that China is playing a “positive role” in resolving Russia’s war with Ukraine peacefully, but also sees Putin’s full-scale invasion as an opportunity to reverse America’s unshakable dominance in international affairs. There is. China refuses to condemn the Russian attack, following the Kremlin’s false narrative that NATO is responsible for the war.

In Serbia, China and Russia are seen as strong allies that support its right to pursue an independent foreign policy. The EU has criticized Serbia for refusing to join international sanctions against Russia for its unprovoked attacks on Ukraine. However, this has not prevented Belgrade from building closer ties with Moscow and China, both of which are staunch supporters of Serbia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Russia’s resurgence poses the most serious threat to Europe since the Cold War, especially with the tacit support of a rapidly growing China. It is no longer enough to support Ukraine indefinitely. Russian nationalism is returning to the European continent, and Western countries need to adapt to this geopolitical reality.

Hugo Blewett-Mundy is a non-resident associate researcher at the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy Studies in Prague.