The overlap between Trumpism and Christian nationalism

This week, PRRI released a more focused set of data looking at one part of Christian thought in the United States: Christian nationalism, the idea that the United States should be an explicitly Christian nation. And again, the data shows a strong correlation with support for Trump.

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This 2021 graph shows the relationship between a county’s approval rating and the percentage of white Christians in that county. You can see that the cloud of dots, each representing a county, extends upward to the right. The more white Christians there are (further up), the bigger Trump’s lead is (further to the right).

Last year, PRRI asked a wide range of Americans to rate several statements centered around the idea of ​​instilling Christian nationalism. For example, one person declared, “The U.S. government should declare America a Christian nation.” Others were more esoteric: “Being a Christian is an important part of being a true American.”

Based on their responses, PRRI categorized respondents into one of four groups. They supported Christian nationalism, including some of the most supportive statements (believer) and those who supported me in general (sympathizer). Two other groups were hostile to this idea, mainly from opposing groups (skeptic) To those who rejected all ideas (refuser).

PRRI used this measure to estimate the percentage of each state’s population that supports, or supports, Christian nationalism. Nationally, about 3 in 10 Americans fell into this category, and 1 in 10 were “supporters.” But at the state level, approval ratings can approach 50 percent. In Mississippi, it is estimated that half the population supports the precepts of Christian nationalism.

This can be compared to support for Trump in 2020. You will then see a clear correlation as the state label cloud moves up and to the right.

In states like Maryland, where there are relatively few supporters of Christian nationalism, turnout for Trump was very low. States such as Mississippi strongly supported him.

If you simply compare the 2020 results to the share of Christian nationalism in each state’s white population, the correlation becomes even tighter.

In short, support for Christian nationalism among a state’s white population was a strong predictor of support for Trump in 2020.

True, this is not surprising. PRRI found that support for Christian nationalism was higher among less educated Americans, older Americans, and white evangelical Christians. These are all groups that form the core of President Trump’s support base. Also, this data does not tell us how causal relationships work. In other words, are Christian nationalists attracted to Trump, or are Trump supporters attracted to Christian nationalism?

Of course, Trump is promoting the idea that he is the defender and champion of American Christians. He makes a clear case for the role of Christianity supported by Christian nationalists. His presumed goal is that support for Trumpism and Christian nationalism will grow together.

PRRI also found that the religious group second most likely to accept the idea of ​​Christian nationalism is Hispanic Protestants, with 55 percent of them falling into the “supporter” group and one in five of them being “believers.” It turned out that there was something. The correlation here is very modest, but it’s worth noting that Hispanic voters have moved to the right, especially since 2020.

It’s also notable that support for Christian nationalism has remained flat over the past year, according to the PRRI survey. Not that this is a pro-Trump category. Growing One; you can’t predict Trump’s electoral position by pointing this out, for example.

But if returned to office, Mr. Trump is likely to make renewed efforts to demonstrate his promised allegiance to religious voters, perhaps including more extreme efforts to transform the United States into a functionally Christian nation. I can say that it can be done.