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Over the past five years, European Greens have wielded influence in the European Parliament far beyond their sheer numbers. The 70 or so MEPs of the Greens/European Liberal Alliance (EFA), a political group backed by the continent’s vibrant climate movement, were even able to push through their flagship agenda: an ambitious European Green Deal designed to help the continent achieve its climate policy goals. Anna Cavazzini, a German Greens MEP, said in an interview that Green movement politicians often “over-delivered.” Foreign Policy.
But the Greens may be in for a rude awakening when 373 million EU voters head to the polls in the European Parliament elections from June 6 to 9. Pedro Lopez, spokesman for the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), said: Foreign Policy He said the Greens were “over-represented in parliaments relative to their political influence in national governments” and that their proposals were “too radical, too fast for people to understand”, adding: “The next five years are going to be very tough for them.”
A Politico poll suggests the Greens/European Liberal Alliance could see their numbers fall to 41 seats after the June elections. If the party’s performance in recent national elections across Europe is any indication of how it will fare next week, Lopez’s prediction may be correct. In Luxembourg last year, the Greens’ vote share fell to 8.6 percent from 15.1 percent in 2018. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party beat a Socialist-Green coalition led by former European Commissioner for Climate Change Frans Timmermans. And in local elections in the German states of Bavaria and Hesse, the movement’s biggest strongholds, fewer Germans chose the Greens, further strengthening the far-right.
If the centre-right, pro-industrial Europe aligns with the far-right, anti-climate change parties, the Greens are likely to be relegated to the backburner, and regardless of the outcome, the EU is likely to remain preoccupied with preparing for the Russian threat, prioritising defence over environmental goals.
There are many reasons for the decline of the green.
Robert Harbeck, Germany’s economy minister and one of Europe’s most influential Green politicians, acknowledged in a September interview: Guardian The movement must shed what the interviewer described as a “moral superiority complex” and stop giving the impression that it always knows best, said another European Parliament official, who asked not to be named. Foreign Policy Environmentalists have always been arrogant and difficult to work with: “They want too much,” he said, “and they don’t follow the political principle of give and take.”
However, the Greens have mainly received negative reviews from the far-right, who have exploited and exacerbated confusion and concerns about the impact of a green policy move on families, industry, workers and farmers for their own political gain.
For example, in 2023, Germans, considered the most environmentally conscious people on the continent, will be forced to adopt new heating and labor lawThe German tabloid newspaper Friedrichshafen has said that newly installed home heating systems must run on at least 65 percent renewable energy. In Germany, where energy bills are soaring, many balk at the idea of making large upfront investments in home retrofits, which often involve installing environmentally friendly heat pumps. But the far-right has turned the issue into a political ploy. Build They likened Harbeck to the Stasi, the former East German secret police, and accused the party of imposing decisions on people and invading their privacy.
Cavazzini said: Foreign Policy Speaking by phone from an election rally in Saxony, he said copies of the draft bill had been “leaked to the press” to stir up trouble and hurt the Greens. He added that he felt “citizens would be forced to shoulder an economic burden.” But he also said the Greens “should have been more proactive in putting the social dimension into the law.”
“Despite this, the debate over this law has been exaggerated and accelerated by tabloid and right-wing fake news,” Cavazzini added.
However, the law is seen as damaging to the reputation of Germany’s Green Party, which is finally in power in a coalition government with Green politicians heading five key ministries.
But the environmental movement has been accused of being too demanding and of making contradictory compromises: experts believe Habeck’s decision to keep coal-fired power plants open to make up for falling energy imports from Russia has hurt the views of some of Germany’s Greens’ ardent supporters.
Then came the farmer protests. In many parts of Europe, farmers dumped manure on the roads, fighting a range of issues, including demands to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Farmers rejected new EU demands to leave 4% of land uncultivated, to reduce pesticide use, and to cut diesel subsidies. The French and German governments, as well as Ursula von der Leyen, a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) and president of the European Commission, caved in to some of the demands and watered down many policies to protect the environment and mitigate climate change.
While von der Leyen herself is seen as an active EU commissioner on climate, she has opened the door to cooperation with the populist right, upsetting the environmental movement and significantly affecting the implementation of the European Green Deal. “She is playing with fire,” Cavazzini added.
Experts claim that the Green Deal is the result of hard negotiations between the European People’s Party (EPP) and the conservative Greens/European Free Association (EFA), but cooperation is already fragile and would be weakened further if the polls are correct and von der Leyen chooses to move further to the right.
In a report published earlier this year, the European Council on Foreign Relations predicted that “the biggest policy impact of the 2024 European Parliament elections is likely to be on environmental policy.”
In the current parliament, the centre-left coalition of the Socialists, Greens, Liberals and Left Party has won on environmental policy issues, but “many of these votes were won by small margins,” the report noted.
If the balance shifts further to the right and the centre-right forms a coalition government with populists or the far-right, the European Green Deal could be put on the back burner and the goal of achieving net-zero emissions from the continent by 2050 could be postponed.
But if von der Leyen instead forms a coalition with the green movement, the latest poll figures show, she could maintain her approval ratings and push ahead with the Green Deal, seen as the centrepiece of her presidency.
“That would give us leverage,” Cavazzini said, but added that the Greens/European Liberal Alliance would only elect von der Leyen as European Commission president if she did not work with the far right and put an end to the European People’s Party’s opposition to the Green Deal, choosing instead to “strengthen and implement it in an ambitious way.”
Although the Greens/European Liberal Alliance did not elect von der Leyen as European Commission president in 2019, the group warmed to her after she promised to introduce more climate-friendly policies. Many members of the Greens/European Liberal Alliance still see themselves as “kingmakers,” as do members of the European Conservatives and Reformists, a far-right populist group led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
“We found the Greens to be an unreliable partner,” said Lopez, a spokesman for the European People’s Party. The European People’s Party is the largest party in the European Parliament, and its support is essential for the Green Deal. But coupled with the resurgence of the far-right in Europe, the EPP has become more critical of the Green bill and support for the movement appears to be waning.
Greenpeace activist Ariadna Rodrigo said that despite suggestions of a decline in green parties, support was growing among Europeans for a greener planet. “It’s not that people don’t like environmental policies, it’s that parties are not successful in convincing people with their policies,” she said. Foreign Policy.
According to an EU Eurobarometer survey published last year, climate change remains in the top three concerns of Europeans, despite the Russian threat. The survey revealed that 93% of EU citizens surveyed considered climate change a “serious problem” and 77% considered it a “very serious problem.” While 67% thought their governments were not doing enough to tackle the crisis, more than 87% thought the EU should take action to increase the use of renewable energy.
Ultimately, no matter which coalition controls the European Parliament, and whether the Greens/European Liberal Alliance are part of it or not, delays in environmental policy could be “catastrophic”, the EU’s environment agency said.
“Hundreds of thousands of people could die from the heatwave, and economic losses from coastal flooding alone could exceed €1 trillion.” [$1.08 trillion] “Years,” the European Environment Agency warned in a report published in March, and appears to be hoping the next commission and parliament will take its assessment seriously.
A key challenge for the next European Commission will be to find funds to cushion the impact of the transition on people who may lose their jobs and those who are already struggling to make ends meet. But there is also room for self-reflection among Green members themselves. In politics, it is not enough to be right. You also need to be liked to implement laws that change people’s lives.
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