The dangers of overinterpreting individual polls

Over time, polling averages (such as the 538 survey results) tend to show little movement. Then on Wednesday, The Times published results from a new Siena poll that showed Trump gaining support, in part because Republicans were rallying together.

The change is slight from the Post’s national poll in April: Then Trump had a 1-point approval rating among likely voters; now he’s at 4. There’s plenty to note about the poll, including its focus on likely voters and head-to-head polls rather than polls that include third-party voters. But that’s partly the point: the story here is more about uncertainty than certainty.

Consider how things have changed among different demographic groups since the Times polled in April. At the time, Biden’s support among young voters was a focus of the Times’ coverage. But Biden’s 2-point lead among those under 30 is now 19 points, similar to his 24-point lead in 2020. This could be due to the Biden campaign’s outreach to younger voters, or it could be a sign that his base is coming back, as the Biden campaign promised. Or, perhaps, it’s the way polling for subgroups in relatively small demographics fluctuates.

Do the changes among the youngest voters, those between 45 and 64, or black voters matter? Do they represent real trends? Or are they just blips in the polls that suggest the Times poll lead might be an outlier?

This is not to suggest that the Times poll, or any other individual poll, is useless or doesn’t provide insight. Rather, it is to point out that incentives to inflate particular poll results in misleading ways come in many forms. Trump’s praise of the Daily Mail poll is one example, taking an obviously questionable result as a sign of change. Deriving interesting information from a single poll is another. Information gleaned from reliable polls is valid, but requires caution and context. (In the interest of full disclosure, I will admit that I myself have sometimes been less careful than perhaps warranted.)

With these caveats in mind, it’s instructive to consider how the Times-Siena poll frames Trump’s enthusiasm advantage. Centered around the enthusiasm of support for each candidate, it asked several questions, including likeability ratings, age concerns and whether each party’s presumptive nominee should actually be the nominee. On each question, Trump fared better overall and within his own party.

Of course, Trump’s overall numbers are partly driven by his enthusiastic support: Trump supporters make up roughly half of the poll respondents, and so their enthusiasm influences half of the sample. This is not a surprising result: Biden’s support has always been less enthusiastic, and in both 2020 and 2024 polls, voters often indicate that their intention to vote for Biden primarily reflects their opposition to Trump.

There’s another consistency in the latest Times poll: Large segments of Republicans and those who plan to vote for Trump in November believe he has committed serious federal crimes, a finding that mirrored earlier this year.

This is not a reflection of Republican indifference to convicting Trump; that is a fact. Nine in ten Republicans believe the charges against the former president are politically motivated. Ironically, the slogan “I vote for a felon!” circulating among Trump’s base reflects skepticism about the prosecution. But the above results are simply a reflection of indifference to Trump’s actions, with some supporters acknowledging that he did in fact commit crimes.

So, do How do the races stand? Polling averages tend to be a more reliable way to see how things have changed. The Washington Post does its own research, which uses high-quality national and state-level polls to calculate who voters currently support in the presidential race. Looking at multiple polls, rather than one, is a better way to track trends and positions.

Not much has changed this year.

While individual polls contain a lot of information and offer plenty of opportunity to find clear shifts or surprises, the 2024 presidential election will almost certainly remain the same through November as it has been for a long time: close and unpredictable.

Renee Bronner contributed to this report.