Texas political earthquake: Cracks appeared in Austin’s oligarchy on Tuesday

Super Tuesday was uneventful in most areas, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump continuing their widely anticipated march to their respective parties’ nominations.

Texas was a big exception.

The Lone Star State’s Republican primary election saw political upheaval, including an unprecedented loss to an incumbent. At least 12 legislative seats and three statewide elected judges have moved to the right. There could be further aftershocks in the May 28 runoff, including the loss of state House Speaker Dade Phelan.

There are many direct causes. These include last year’s politically short-sighted impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), statewide issues with school choice and election integrity, and a host of local concerns.

But most importantly, this has happened because those in power in state legislatures have lost control of a strategy that has been highly effective in avoiding grassroots accountability.

Texas is known as a conservative state, but that’s an overstatement. Historically, Texas conservatism has been “pro-business” rather than principled or “pro-market.” It gravitates toward political and economic power being held by small oligarchy that relentlessly resists attempts at reform.

Under this system, collusion between companies and the government has intensified, and the interests of existing companies have been protected from competition. This domestic form of protectionism, combined with old-fashioned political patronage in the state’s education system (particularly in the state’s rural areas), produced an entrenched power structure that remained surprisingly stable for several decades, and that continued into the late 20th century. It survived state reorganization. From Democrats to Republicans.

Texans typically don’t closely follow the workings of their state government, and few Americans do. This has allowed lawmakers to protect themselves using well-established strategies for decades. First, they typically perform three to five days of right-wing theater every 140 days of Congress and pass enough social-issue legislation to fill the backs of campaign mailers. They then spend what little legislative time they have left consolidating power on behalf of the Austin oligarchs.

However, in recent years, this balance has become impossible to achieve. First, the coronavirus pandemic has given parents an unprecedented glimpse into the farce public education has become. School closures have revealed a lack of consideration for families. Radical curriculum exposed. All of this has created unprecedented parental demands for school choice, running headlong into the political patronage system of public education. So when Gov. Greg Abbott (R) belatedly pushed for school choice in 2023, parents paid close attention to which side lawmakers chose.

Second, a 2021 ruling by Texas’ highest criminal court invalidated a 1951 law authorizing the state’s attorney general to prosecute election fraud cases. This law was passed after the well-documented theft of the 1948 US Senate election by “Landslide Lyndon” Johnson.

The case, Texas v. Stevens, centered on illegal campaign contributions in an East Texas sheriff’s race, but the local district attorney declined to prosecute. In its ruling, the court offered a dubious interpretation of the separation of powers principle, arguing that Paxton has usurped judicial functions and therefore does not need to prosecute the case himself.

The practical effect was that only the local district attorney, who was often complicit in this type of conspiracy, could prosecute them. At the time, the attorney general’s office had dozens of pending investigations into illegal ballot harvesting and illegal voting that it had to abandon.

The veracity of this ruling was already questionable, but it was particularly politically insensitive since so many Republican primary voters believed the 2020 election was rigged against Trump (of course (Although not in Texas). This has brought more attention to the issue of election integrity in general.

And then Paxton’s impeachment in 2023 happened. Paxton, a former congressman, was always at odds with the Austin oligarchs. This tension had already led to active attempts to defeat Paxton in the 2014 and 2022 elections. When that effort failed, they ambushed Paxton with corruption charges. The Texas House of Representatives followed suit, impeaching Paxton over Memorial Day weekend.

Given the underlying weaknesses of the impeachment charges, Paxton predictably defeated the charges once they were publicly aired in the Senate trial. But the political damage to those who supported impeachment had already been done by then. Paxton is stronger than ever following his acquittal and is on a mission to hold accountable those who supported his own impeachment and removal from office.

These three factors combined to make the Texas Republican Congressional primary more interesting than ever. Voters are paying a lot of attention this time around, and the results speak for themselves.

All three Court of Criminal Appeals judges on the ballot lost in Tuesday’s primary election. at least 6 people (mostly rural) anti-school choice Republicans lost, and several more parties will head to runoff elections. At least nine Republicans who voted to impeach Paxton lost their nominations. Several more candidates will head to the runoff.

Most notably, Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan faces a runoff election. Although Phelan is primarily perceived as a puppet of the Austin lobby, he was still the public face of Paxton’s impeachment. Additionally, Mr. Phelan provided political cover for Republicans opposed to school choice and helped increase Democratic influence in the House. Phelan will defend his Beaumont-area seat against David Covey, a local activist backed by Donald Trump, in a May 28 runoff election.

Tuesday night dealt a significant blow to crony capitalism and political patronage in Texas. When the Texas Legislature next convenes in 2025, there will be at least 12 new members who don’t fit the traditional mold. That number could rise even further depending on the results of the May runoff elections. Complacent Austin lobbyists would be wise to take note.

Adam Kahn is an Austin-based activist and former political blogger.