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When the Supreme Court struck down core parts of the Voting Rights Act in 2013, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. argued that some of the law’s protections against racial discrimination were no longer necessary.
He said the disparity in turnout between white and black voters, which was once a problem in areas with a history of discrimination at voting places, has largely disappeared, and that civil rights laws in those areas, primarily in the South, have been largely eliminated. He wrote that the “conditions that inherently justify” the attention he received were now in place. It no longer existed.
But a new long-standing study by the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan think tank focused on democracy and voting rights issues, suggests otherwise.
Prior to this decision, counties with a history of racial discrimination at voting places had to get permission from the Department of Justice before changing voting laws or procedures. This is known as “preclearance” under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, and it was his 2013 Supreme Court decision in Shelby County v. Holder that effectively invalidated this part of the law. .
Since this decision, the disparity in turnout between white and non-white voters has increased “in previously targeted jurisdictions compared to other regions of the country with similar demographic and socio-economic profiles. “It has grown almost twice as fast,” the Brennan study found.
The “racial turnout gap” refers to the difference in the proportion of white and nonwhite voters eligible to vote in a particular election. This gap is being closely watched by voting rights groups and civil rights leaders as a sign of harmful laws and procedures that can have an oppressive impact on communities of color.
The group’s report found that the gap between black and white voter turnout in the former Section 5 counties widened by 11 percentage points between 2012 and 2022 since the Shelby decision. The study relied on nearly 1 billion voter files to make its estimates. Even if no decision had been taken, the gap in turnout between whites and blacks would still have widened, but by only 6 percentage points.
Although the differences may seem small, the study authors argue that such differences are “potentially huge” in modern politics. Since 2012, at least 62 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential elections in states with Section 5 counties have been decided by less than 5 percentage points.
“Of course it’s important from a moral perspective, but the difference is significant, especially given the close elections across the country,” said Kareem Clayton, senior director of voting rights and representation at the Brennan Center. It’s also important,” he said.
After the Shelby ruling, state legislatures across the country passed a series of new voting restrictions, including new voter ID laws and removed hundreds of thousands of names from voter rolls. However, because turnout is influenced by a variety of factors, including the time it takes to vote and motivating factors such as close races and polarized candidates, it is often difficult to measure the impact of these laws with inaccurate statistics. people are claiming. And the impact of the 2013 Supreme Court decision was far broader than simply enacting new voting laws. All voting procedures, including changing polling places and cleaning voter rolls, are no longer subject to federal approval.
“Did you know that Shelby County changed its election laws? Yes,” said Bernard Fraga, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta. “How does that affect turnout? Voter turnout is downstream, it’s affected by election laws, people’s reactions to election laws, the competitive landscape of elections, etc. There are a lot of other factors that make it difficult to say you can look at the rates and determine Shelby’s impact. It’s a county decision.”
Most attempts to quantify racial voter turnout disparities have relied on statistics such as the census or political surveys such as exit polls. The Brennan Center’s research assesses disparities based on voter files (detailed data on voters’ histories and habits) from every federal election since 2008, and analyzes these records to create a more complete picture. claimed to be obtained.
The authors noted that statistical limitations prevent them from estimating the total number of votes lost due to the Shelby decision.
More broadly, the report’s findings confirm what voting rights activists and experts say is an alarming turning point in the country’s broader democratic foundations. After the Voting Rights Act and her 1960s civil rights movement, nonwhite voter participation increased for decades. That’s no longer the case.
The study found wide disparities in racial turnout nationwide, beyond counties traditionally covered by Section 5. In the 2020 election, 9.3 million more people would have voted if non-white voters had participated at the same rate as white voters. In the 2022 midterm elections, his total vote count will be 13.9 million votes.
This disparity persisted beyond educational background and income. The study found that while turnout has declined among all races and ethnicities in low-income areas, poor white voters still turn out at a higher rate than non-white voters.
Jake Grumbach, a policy professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said the widening gap in turnout is “a big problem.” “Since 1965, our democratic institutions have become healthier, and this is the first time in the post-civil rights era that this trend has actually reversed. And that’s the pernicious point. I think.”
Many other factors contribute to turnout. Still, the total number of “missing” votes is likely a large number, the study argues.
“Through the 2022 midterm elections, Shelby County’s impact resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of votes cast by voters of color in previously targeted counties in each federal election,” Clayton said. . “And we know that even a fraction of that number can make a difference in an election or a state’s electoral votes.”
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