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As a result, it was thought that Hillary Clinton would gain at least the popular vote, but that was not the case in at least the three battleground states where she won a majority of the electoral votes. The assumption then shifted to exogenous legal forces, and that an investigation or perhaps impeachment of Robert S. Mueller III would lead to his ouster. no.
In November 2020, it was mainly Trump who drove him crazy. He was unpopular and his presidency was widely viewed negatively. He lost to Joe Biden, indicating that more people who voted for Biden voted for the incumbent Republican than for the Democrat.
Then 2023 arrived, and Trump sought a comeback. For the past 14 months or so, Mr. Trump has held a lead in the race for the Republican nomination, so much so that by last fall it seemed obvious that Mr. Trump would be the party’s nominee. But there were reasons to be cautious. After all, who knows! Something might happen.
Unlike in 2016, this “something” was often identifiable. The various charges Trump faces could ultimately lead to a conviction, potentially upending the primary race. This was not an unreasonable assumption given the impending indictment and the uncertainty of its impact. However, there has been no conviction, and as of this writing, Trump’s re-nomination is almost certain.
So let’s start everything over again. Yes, Trump is leading in many general election polls, like the NBC News poll released Sunday. But maybe President Trump will be found guilty of undermining his own standing, as an NBC News poll released on Sunday showed.
It’s definitely instructive that the NBC News pollsters asked this question. (Specifically, “How would respondents vote if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony this year and convicted?”) NBC’s Mark Murray asked Who Would They Vote? By comparing initial responses to the question “Do you want to do it?”, we uncovered some of the resulting demographic changes. -For questions regarding the version in case of indictment.
Overall, the gap between Trump and Biden changed by 7 points. Among younger voters, the change was 15 points. Among Latinos and independents, it was 11 points. Among Republicans, polls show that if Trump were convicted of a felony this year, his approval rating would drop by 7 points.
However, in his article, Murray mentioned an important asterisk identified by one of the pollsters who participated in the study. He said independents who turned away from Trump during post-conviction questions “have an overwhelmingly negative opinion of Biden and want a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 percentage points.” wrote. It seems unlikely that this would constitute a solid hard shift in Biden’s favor. Rather, it marks a shift from support for Trump to no support for either candidate at all.
You have to weigh this against other elements of the NBC News poll. Over the past eight months, the network’s polls have gone from a 4-point lead for Biden to a 5-point lead for Trump. However, this shift is primarily due to a decline in support for Biden, not an increase in support for Trump.
Other polls have similarly shown that improvements in President Trump’s position vis-à-vis Biden are often due to softening support for Biden.
When you layer this with polls (including NBC) that show Biden supporters once again often center around Trump opponents, you can generate a reasonable theory. Those who voted for Biden are not thrilled with him, but often choose him as an alternative to Trump. In cases where Trump’s negative characteristics are not salient, such as when the economy or immigration are the focus of the campaign and Trump has an advantage over Biden on both issues, some of Biden’s support may be It fades. But when President Trump is presented with a highly negative scenario, that scenario re-solidifies.
It remains to be seen whether Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election. Given that his D.C. case, which centered on his efforts to subvert the 2020 election, is currently on hold pending a Supreme Court decision, it is unlikely that it will conclude by then. (About half of respondents in the latest CNN-SSRS poll said it was “essential” that the case be resolved by November.) He has been found guilty in other places, including New York City. He faces a possible sentencing, where he is charged with charges that many see as of little concern.
Admittedly, it’s easy to be cynical here and assume that a federal conviction on the charges brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith would have little effect on President Trump’s support. is easy. The past eight years have certainly provided plenty of reason to make such an assumption.
But a conviction could actually have a negative impact on Trump, even indirectly. It would give voters who don’t like either candidate a reason to go vote for Biden, and potentially deter some people who voted for Trump from showing up to vote. .
In other words, it’s not a sudden derailment of Trump’s candidacy that he’s managed to avoid for the past eight years.
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