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Long-term weather forecasting is notoriously difficult, but a new paper published in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics suggests that the rate of melting of Greenland’s ice sheet can predict next summer’s weather in Europe. are doing.
The chain of events is complex and other factors can interfere. But according to the study’s lead author, Dr. Marilena Oltmans of the UK’s National Marine Centre, here’s roughly what happens:
Greenland’s warmer climate allows more meltwater to flow into the Atlantic Ocean. This snowmelt water is lighter than seawater, so it accumulates on top of the ocean, reducing heat exchange between the air and the ocean. This causes stronger winds around snowmelt areas. In winter, winds shift the North Atlantic Current, an extension of the Gulf Stream, northward.
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The following summer, the wind follows the direction of the current and veers northward. This helps create large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions that lead to warming and drying across Europe.
Ortmans says the location, extent and intensity of the freshwater event can be used to extrapolate subsequent warm and dry weather patterns in Europe.
“Based on the sequence of events identified, ocean-atmospheric conditions are expected to be suitable for an unusually warm and dry summer in southern Europe this year,” Ortmans said.
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