Scientists know the future of snowstorms in the US

The frequency of snowstorms in the United States may decrease in the coming decades, a new study finds.

Between 1996 and 2020, 13,000 blizzards were recorded in the United States, 10,000 of which hit the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest regions.

But a new study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln finds that the average number of snowstorms may start to decline in the coming decades.

“Snowstorms have a major impact on many aspects of our daily lives, including infrastructure and transportation,” Liang Chen, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at the university, said in a summary of the study’s findings. “In terms of planning for climate change, people want to know: How will snowstorms change in the future because of a warming climate? But based on climate simulations, what will snowstorms look like in the future? There are no studies that have investigated whether this changes.The main reason is that it is difficult to quantify.

Recently, climate warming has resulted in calmer winds and less snowfall in the United States, which can affect the severity of snowstorms.

Until now, these weather phenomena have been difficult to track using climate data. However, Chen and his colleagues used a new model to analyze blizzard occurrence using daily snowfall and wind speed data. Then, using this model, he extrapolated the long-term future from 2030 to 2059, 2060 to 2099.

They have conducted tests in recent years in parallel with estimating future greenhouse gas emissions. The results showed that given climate warming, these winter storms are likely to decline over time. Snowstorms are expected to decrease in the Midwest and Northeast.

Scientists looked at different states and found that Iowa could see 10 fewer days of high winds per year. Winds are also expected to weaken in Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas.

As global temperatures rise, there will be less snow. However, precipitation is estimated to increase in the northern plains.

“As temperatures rise, precipitation will fall to the ground as rain instead of snow,” Chen said. “So even though overall precipitation will increase, snowfall will decrease.”

Researchers estimate that there may be an overall reduction in the number of snowstorms, but there are more questions to be answered.

It is possible that these snowstorms will become stronger or weaker as a result of climate change, but further research is needed to assess this.

Chen’s next step is to analyze why snowstorms have increased or decreased over the decades.

“Most of my previous research has been about extreme summer phenomena such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rains,” Chen says. “But severe winter weather is also having an impact, especially in Nebraska, and we are interested in seeing its trajectory in a warming climate. We hope our research will improve our understanding of winter extremes.” We hope to provide this and benefit the local community.”

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