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In late October 2023, european leadership network (ELN), in partnership with Hans Seidel Foundationheld a two-day scenario building workshop in Istanbul with the theme of “Postwar Europe.” A diverse group of experts from Ukraine, Russia, and broader Europe considered the impact on Europe of the various possible outcomes of war sparked by a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Workshop participants discussed possible scenarios, noting that they are not mutually exclusive and different scenarios may emerge at different times.
Consequences of a decisive victory on the battlefield:
- geopolitical europe
- Ukraine militarily wins the war and recovers most of its territory. Russia agreed to a negotiated settlement, effectively admitting defeat. European institutions integrate Ukraine.
- Pyrrhic victory
- Although Ukraine won the war militarily, Russia does not agree to a political solution and European institutions have not integrated Ukraine.
- victory of russia
- Russia could win the war militarily and continue to occupy and annex territory, even moving into Ukraine.
A result in which neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve a decisive military victory.
- territorial peace
- With both sides exhausted by the war, Ukraine agreed to cede captured territory to Russia in exchange for joining NATO and ending the fighting.
- eternal war
- Russia retains the territories it has conquered, and there are long wars with varying levels of violence, sometimes “frozen” and sometimes escalating.
- creeping escalation
- The war lasted for years, with occasional ceasefires but gradually escalating without a full-blown NATO-Russia conflict.
- major escalation
- Russia has significantly escalated its efforts to directly threaten NATO members in an attempt to force the war to end on its own terms.
The report sets out how these scenarios will affect European security, different views on how they might play out, and some policy recommendations for European governments thinking long-term. is discussed.
Read the full report here.
The opinions expressed above do not necessarily reflect the position of ELN or its members. The aim of the ELN is to encourage discussions that help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defense and security policy challenges of our time.
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons / Office of the President of Ukraine
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