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For a moment, in one of those small flashes of competence that occasionally flickers on Capitol Hill, it seemed as if Republicans and Democrats would agree on changes that could help reduce the number of people allowed to be in the United States. It looked like. Relieving pressure on the federal government from local governments to deal with the influx of residents. But this bipartisan agreement fell apart in the face of right-wing opposition from Republicans, opposition strongly driven by Donald Trump, and the president’s recognition that immigration was inconvenient for his general election opponents.
Indeed, it may be easy to exaggerate Trump’s influence on things like this. Mr. Trump himself is always keen to demonstrate that he is the central figure in decision-making, even until those decisions become unpopular. However, a new Yahoo News poll conducted by YouGov shows that President Trump is more opposed this time.
Poll respondents were presented with a variety of options for dealing with immigration, four of which were included in the bipartisan agreement. In fact, of his six ideas presented to respondents, these four of his were the most commonly popular. For each of the four, Republicans had higher approval ratings than Democrats, but often by large margins. (Of the six items, the only one Republicans didn’t support much was creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.)
So YouGov conducted an experiment. Half of the respondents were asked to rate the bipartisan agreement after being briefed on the components and costs. The other half were given the same information and told that President Trump was against it.
Overall, support for the bill was 10 points higher among groups who were not informed about President Trump’s opposition. But among Republicans, support for the bipartisan agreement was cut by nearly half. Just under two-thirds of Republicans who were not informed that Trump opposed the bill expressed support for the proposed plan. Only one-third supported President Trump despite knowing about his opposition.
Partisan support for the bipartisan agreement was about the same (1 point difference) among people who were not informed about President Trump’s views. However, among those who were informed of this, support for the Democratic Party increased, and the difference between the two parties was 36 points.
Indeed, one factor is that people often rely on external validators to consider complex questions. There’s a reason people tend to vote along party lines. Political parties exist primarily to validate political views.
That doesn’t make it any less important that Republicans are prepared to reject a proposal that includes four elements of their own support. (Prior to Mr. Trump’s question, each of the four elements had support from at least three-quarters of Republicans.) Mr. Trump’s grip on the party has become increasingly literal; (For example) his daughter-in-law is now assigned the role of a Republican in the Republican Party. Chairman of the Republican National Committee. But the rhetorical and political influence he holds over the broader Republican Party is also strong.
Trump got what he wanted. The situation at the border – in his opinion – has been going on for months. That’s something he and his allies can point to as November approaches.
In other words, the fact remains that this issue is politically useful for Republicans.
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