Reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy imports: key strategies based on five scenarios

The war in Ukraine has entered a critical stage. Despite the heavy blow to Russia’s economy, the decline in the country’s position in the energy market, and hundreds of thousands of Russian military casualties, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperialist policies have not been deterred. Meanwhile, Ukrainians continue to fight back against Russian aggression, supported by aid from Western countries.

But that support is being tested. New conflicts emerging around the world are forcing the Alliance to become more cognizant of resource limits and the domestic political will of its member states. Crucially, Russia’s energy war is weighing on the will of voters across the West to continue supporting Ukraine, as energy price inflation remains a persistent risk. The 2024 election could become a referendum, in part due to the desire of Western citizens to continue supporting Ukraine.

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The democratic world must take all reasonable steps to ensure that Ukraine remains a sovereign democratic state with its internationally recognized territory intact. Second, democratic forces must consider the future of Europe’s energy balance and Russia’s role in the world energy market. Without a transatlantic strategy with a realistic pathway for implementation, diversification away from the Russian stream cannot be guaranteed in perpetuity.

To better understand how the war’s end, or lack thereof, will affect the options available to transatlantic policymakers, this report explores the potential of Ukraine’s victory, negotiated settlement, and freeze. It analyzes security in Europe according to five common scenarios: conflict, protracted conflict, and Russian war. It then aims to understand the impact of potential outcomes of war on transatlantic energy security in order to suggest strategies to deal with the unique impacts from each scenario.

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