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London
CNN
—
Donald Trump’s statements usually echo within an echo chamber of his own creation, a kind of vacuum that often robs them of global impact. Some may think it is white noise, rhetoric designed to project strength and rejection of the status quo rather than an expression of actual policy. Trump is just Trump.
But when the former president suggested on Saturday that he would let Russia “do whatever it wants” to NATO members that don’t meet spending guidelines, the implications were profound.
He recalled that the conversation was with a “large” NATO ally. It’s unclear who he was referring to or when the conversation took place, but he said his allies had refused to spend the recommended 2% of GDP. He sought to defend, but still sought assurances that the United States would be protected if Russia attacked. Trump said he would not make such guarantees because the ally is a “delinquent” and Russian President Vladimir Putin should feel free to do what he wants.
Trump’s opinions on NATO have been known for years. He sees NATO as the epitome of everything he despises for America’s allies, who exploit America’s power without giving anything in return. In other words, it’s a store loyalty club where you can earn points without having to spend a certain amount of money.
As with much foreign policy, the Republican front-runner fundamentally misunderstood the nature and purpose of this relationship. NATO is not a dues-based alliance. NATO is the largest military bloc in history and was formed to counter the threat from the Soviet Union, based on collective defense, where an attack on one country is an attack on the whole. This is the principle enshrined in NATO Article 5. Founding Treaty.
Its purpose is very suitable for the United States. After 9/11, the White House invoked Article V. And since the creation of NATO, U.S. military power has often been packaged globally as expressions of dozens of powerful agreements. NATO helps strengthen the United States’ declining position as the sole superpower. Stripped of this vast alliance and its diplomatic and economic power, the United States would look very alone on the world stage.
That means the United States will almost certainly spend more on the military than anyone else, regardless of its allies. NATO gives it legitimacy, dollar support, and a global foundation of post-Soviet hegemony on which it thrives.
Given Saturday’s miscommunication, President Trump’s comments come at a catastrophically bad time for Europe. His Republican thugs are relentlessly trying to block critical aid to Ukraine. If the desired $60 billion does not arrive or is significantly delayed, it will have an irreparable negative impact on Ukraine’s practical defense capabilities on the front lines, Kiev’s political cohesion, and national morale. Dew.
The damage has already been done. And President Putin is the one who stands to gain.
It remains a mystery why President Trump feels so inexplicably connected to President Putin and obsessed with his flattery and success. It is a mystery that may only be understood with time. Is it a perverse fascination with “bad guys,” a fascination with Russia’s deeply patriarchal culture, or something more deeply tied to Trump’s personal history itself?
Saturday’s inflammatory comments fuel the narrative that the United States is exploited, undervalued, and in global decline as a result. President Trump’s Republican Party is capitalizing on this, perhaps unaware that this is a self-fulfilling loop of discontent. The more America withdraws from NATO, bemoaning its abject neglect of its allies and NATO, the weaker its power will be.
Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s excruciatingly soft interview with Putin reinforced the projection of weakness. It was easy to hear Kremlin leaders’ feeble claims of persecution and laughable historical justifications for invading weaker, less threatening neighbors. This platform showed that some people in America wanted to listen to President Putin’s nonsense, and allowed them to do so. This foreshadowed the possibility of major changes in relations with Russia during President Trump’s second term.
The real-world impact of President Trump’s comments is not yet clear, but it could be devastating. Europe’s security depends on Ukraine’s success, or at least its ability to deter and weaken Russia’s continued aggression.
If Moscow wins, it could take years. On the other hand, President Putin has now succeeded in refocusing the economy and society for wartime and may find it distasteful to seize his power to stop the drumbeat of conflict. . Russia’s advance into Zaporizhzhia could lead to moves to Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa, putting Putin on the doorstep of NATO member Romania.
But don’t expect Russia to launch an all-out invasion of the largest military alliance in history. Russia will not suddenly bomb France. Putin likes to stab, provoke, and test his adversaries’ red lines and readiness. Is NATO willing to go to war with Moscow over the Russian-speaking part of the Baltic state Estonia? Or maybe the tiny Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, which has a partly Russian population? Will Russia’s slight provocation gradually expose NATO’s inconsistency and reluctance to mobilize the same people in conflict as Russia?
For nearly a decade, Europe has lived with the possibility of facing the Russian threat alone. President Trump’s first term gave a loud voice to his cause. But now, with the largest ground war gripping Europe since the 1940s, the stakes are even greater.
In recent weeks, Britain has shifted broader rhetoric to suggest that the West is no longer in a post-war, but rather a pre-war world. British military leaders are even considering the possibility of conscription. Finland and Sweden are rushing to join NATO. The German Foreign Ministry responded to President Trump’s remarks by saying, “One for all, all for one.” European Council President Charles Michel condemned Trump’s “reckless statements”.
However, European defense could hardly develop without American support. Moscow remains relatively weak after a failed invasion of an unprepared neighbor. It’s not a giant corporation that’s sweeping all of Western Europe. NATO is far from the powerful military force it was perceived to be in 2021. But make no mistake: the lack of guarantees of American support greatly undermines NATO’s effectiveness. It calls into question the cohesiveness of the alliance and, by extension, its existence.
Mr. Trump knows that. He’s not just saying that the United States won’t help NATO allies who don’t pay. He says he will encourage Russia to attack and invade U.S. allies and terrorize Mariupol. It could be noise, or it could be to flog the believers in front of the podium. But this voice was heard louder, especially in European capitals and in Moscow.
Part of President Trump’s appeal to his supporters is his lack of coolness as president. But since the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, this is no longer a game of posturing. This is a moment when I hope that history books will no longer have to look back and analyze it as something with serious consequences.
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