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When President Biden agreed to bipartisan talks on a border bill last fall, Democratic strategists hoped the agreement would take the issue off the president’s re-election campaign agenda.
But with the resulting bipartisan immigration deal collapsing at the hands of former President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday, Biden got something else instead: someone to blame. It turned out to be something I should do.
The Southwest border crisis has been one of the most vexing challenges of Biden’s presidency, defying policy prescriptions and draining public support. With record numbers of immigrants entering the country illegally, the president is under pressure from Democrats as well as Republicans to take further action.
For three years, Mr. Biden has struggled to offer voters a convincing answer to the question of why the border has descended into such a crisis on his watch. He avoided public discussion of the issue as much as possible, preferring to focus his message on other priorities. But after Mr. Trump intervened and convinced Republicans in Congress to abandon the border deal they had demanded, Mr. Biden finally had the opportunity to turn from defensive to offensive.
“The American people will know why we failed,” he declared in a televised address from the White House. “I’m going to bring this issue into this country, and voters will know that it’s not going to be a moment — right at the moment when Trump was going to secure the border and fund these other programs. And MAGA Republicans said no because they’re afraid of Donald Trump.”
He added: “Every day from now until November, the American people will learn that the only reason our border is unsafe is because of Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends.”
Mr. Trump and his allies scoffed at the idea that Mr. Biden could avoid responsibility after three years of border security failures.
“Joe Biden blamed President Trump for a border crisis that Biden himself caused,” said Caroline Levitt, the former president’s press secretary. “This is a brazen and pathetic lie, and the American people know the truth. President Trump’s policies created the most secure border in American history, and it was Joe Biden who reversed it.”
Senate Republicans took a cue from the former president and rejected the deal as insufficient in a floor vote Wednesday. But that muddied this week’s results. It came a day after House Republicans fell one vote short in attempting to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas for failing to take action on securing the border, an embarrassing setback for Democrats.republican party
The border is one of Biden’s least favorite issues. Since he took office, the number of illegal crossings has skyrocketed, from 73,944 reported in December 2020, just before he took office, to 302,034 in December of last year. Governors and mayors are sounding the alarm about the resulting burden on local communities.
A poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov last month found that 45% of Americans now view the situation at the border as a “crisis,” an 8-point increase from last spring, and an additional 30% consider it “very serious.” ing. A poll released Wednesday by PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist found that just 29% of Americans approve of Biden’s leadership on this issue, while Democrats and independents voice concerns. .
As a matter of pure politics, Mr. Biden is gaining ground among voters who are deeply interested in illegal immigration, Mr. Trump’s signature issue since he led a crowd in 2016 chanting “build a wall.” You will probably never be able to outperform it.
But when it comes to re-election strategy, Democratic operatives believe Biden needs to prevent immigrants from eating into his support among swing voters unsettled by a surge in illegal immigration, and that Biden is poised for a reversal. He believed he needed to avoid alienating progressives who were disappointed that he hadn’t done more. Trump-era policies.
Mr. Biden’s acceptance of the bipartisan agreement negotiated by Sen. James Lankford, Republican of Oklahoma, was a sign of how much the politics of the issue have changed in recent years. Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut. and Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat who became an independent from Arizona.
If enacted, the law would tighten rules for asylum seekers, expand detention facilities, hire more border officials, expedite deportations for ineligible immigrants, and create temporary border closures during peak periods. It could have been closed. But none of the provisions Democrats have long called for to sign a comprehensive immigration bill, including a path to citizenship for immigrants and protections for young immigrants who came to the country as children, were not included.
Trump has made clear that he sees the deal not as a solution but as a threat to his efforts to regain the presidency. “This bill is a great gift to Democrats, but a death wish to Republicans,” he wrote on social media this week. “This takes the horrible job the Democrats have done on immigration and the border, pardons them, and puts everything squarely on the shoulders of the Republicans. Don’t be stupid!!!”
Lankford, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, attributed opposition to the deal to the president’s politics on the right. speech on the senate floorHe said a popular anonymous commentator told him, “If you try to pass a bill to solve the border crisis during this presidential year, I will do everything I can to crush you.” “Because we don’t want this problem to be solved during a presidential year.” ”
The White House spends most of its time reframing the issue so that Trump can threaten Republicans as obstructionists and accept a deal that has the backing of conservative organizations such as the Border Patrol that have traditionally supported Trump. not spent. “Will House Republicans vote for Border Patrol to secure the border, or will they vote for Donald Trump to add fentanyl?” the White House asked in a memo sent to reporters. .
This change was a welcome one for the Democratic Party, which is anticipating a close race. “Until very recently, the border has been almost exclusively President Biden’s issue,” said Jeffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster. “But now Republicans are making it their problem, too, by blocking strong bipartisan border legislation.”
“President Biden could now say he was prepared to sign and implement the strongest border law in history, but the fact that Republicans blocked it at President Trump’s orders means that President Biden is more likely than ever to be on immigration. “We are in a much better position,” he added. ”
Margie Omero, another Democratic strategist, said voters will figure out which side actually wants to get something done. “Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats are working on solutions,” she said. “Republicans routinely stand in the way of our efforts to tackle our big challenges and score political points.”
But Biden’s critics question whether he will be able to shift the blame after so much time. They say the president and his allies, who throughout his presidency have resisted even admitting there was a crisis, will switch gears and say there is a crisis and it’s Trump’s fault. He was only claiming that.
“On its face, it seems absurd,” said Mark S. Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies and a leading advocate for tougher policies. “Obviously the Biden guys are going to hold on to this, and obviously the Trump guys are going to laugh at it. The question is whether people in the middle class will buy it or not. I can’t believe there are people who believe that. I want to. Three years from now?”
Republican strategist Scott Jennings said it was “obviously a cynical ploy” that would not work. “I’m sure he really thinks voters are stupid and that he’s trying to convince them that after three years of policy, the Republican Party is somehow at fault,” Jennings said. “No one believes that Joe Biden wants to ‘get tough’ on the border issue. Please. For three years, this administration has claimed the border is secure. What has changed? ? Oh. It’s election time.”
Of course, elections revolve around stories. For three years, Republicans had a clear story line on the border — that Biden intentionally or incompetently opened the floodgates. Now the president can present the counterargument that whatever happened before, at least he wanted to fix the problem, and Trump didn’t. The next nine months will test which one is more convincing.
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