President Trump heads to Ohio ahead of high-stakes and competitive Senate primary in November

CNN
—

Normally, there would be little reason for Donald Trump to attend a rally in Ohio, which the presumptive Republican nominee has twice comfortably attended eight months before the November election.

But the former president’s most coveted endorsement in the Republican primary is still not a done deal for businessman Bernie Moreno. Mr. Moreno is confirmed to be the first three-way primary of the year to test Mr. Trump’s reputation in the disputed Senate race.

Tuesday’s winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. He is one of two Democrats running for re-election in the Trump state, and his fate will be crucial to control of the Senate this fall.

Democrats are closely monitoring the high-stakes Republican primary, with outside groups running ads endorsing Moreno over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Based on their spending, they seem to think Moreno is a strong candidate to go toe-to-toe with Brown in a state that is trending red. The state supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but swung toward Trump four years later.

Mr. Trump is scheduled to attend Saturday’s rally hosted by a super PAC supporting Mr. Moreno, but national Republicans (who are supporting him in the primaries for many of the other target seats this cycle) say the three I am not participating in this race because I believe that one of them is a supporter. You can beat Brown.

But Mr. Dolan recently secured the support of two prominent Ohio Republicans, former Sen. Rob Portman and Gov. Mike DeWine. Their involvement sharpened the divide between Trump’s faction and the rest of the Ohio Republican Party in the race, effectively pitting two self-funded candidates against each other in the final stages. Ta.

As of Thursday, Republican campaigns and outside groups had spent more than $34 million combined in the primary, according to data from AdImpact, with Dolan spending $9.6 million on ads and Moreno spending $7.8 million. Mr. was the leader. Mr. LaRose, a former Green Beret who rose to prominence early on as the only statewide elected official, lacks the personal resources to compete but has benefited from significant outside spending. Ta.

Not surprisingly for a Republican primary more than 1,000 miles from Mexico, immigration has been a major theme in ads, with candidates and their allies touting border security efforts and He has even attacked opponents for supporting “amnesty.”

But for all the TV noise, it may be a fundamental rift within the party that ultimately determines what Tuesday’s primary and fall matchups will look like.

“There’s a big question mark over all of this. Who is that undecided category? Is it the Trump side of the party or the not-so-Trump side?” Ohio Republican strategist Bob Clegg says Mr. He is not involved in any election campaign.

Mr. Trump had been a ubiquitous presence in Mr. Moreno’s campaign well before Saturday’s rally.

At the beginning and end of the Moreno campaign’s ad, President Trump says, “We love Ohio and we love Bernie Moreno,” and in the ad, the candidate says, “We have to do this first. The thing is, the wall has to be completed.”

In December, the former president endorsed Moreno, a Colombian immigrant who made his fortune in car dealerships, in the state’s 2022 Republican primary at the urging of Sen. J.D. Vance, who was encouraged by his own support of Trump. (Mr. Moreno has since withdrawn from that race).

But Mr Clegg said a recent ad by the growth club’s political arm attacking Dolan “was the first clue that something was going on”. He then received an endorsement from Mr. DeWine, who had previously indicated he would not be involved in the Senate primary.

Both developments point to momentum for Dolan, who finished a better-than-expected third in a crowded 2022 race in which he was the only candidate to reject Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. President Trump made it clear early in the cycle that he would not support Dolan, changed the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians, and criticized Dolan’s family for calling him a RINO (Republican in Name Only). However, this was an attack by the club. Support for Moreno has increased this year.

All three candidates have been more critical of President Trump in the past than they are now, but Dolan is the only one of the three not to support Trump in the 2024 election.

“Matt has made it clear that he is a big supporter of Trump’s policies,” said Chris Maloney, a strategist for Dolan’s campaign.

Dolan’s campaign touted its support for the Buckeye State, and specifically for DeWine, in fundraising emails this week.

“They are servant leaders and know how to win tough races,” Maloney said.

But Mr Clegg said Mr Dewyne’s late endorsement could be a “double-edged sword”. Dolan’s support from older and more educated Republicans (who tend to be more likely to vote) could be particularly strong if Trump’s base is not enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday, especially since Trump has already secured the presidential nomination. It may help Mr.

At the same time, Mr. DeWine may antagonize some conservatives. President Trump criticized governors for vetoing a bill that would have barred transgender youth from receiving gender-affirming care. DeWine has also been targeted by the right during the coronavirus pandemic for following public health measures and other restrictions criticized by President Trump.

“Everyone loves Mike DeWine, but that’s not where the party stands right now,” said Bob Kish, an Ohio Republican consultant.

Significant amounts of money have been spent to connect each candidate to an earlier version of the Republican Party that was less hard-line on immigration, abortion and LGBTQ rights, and more critical of President Trump. . As CNN’s K-Files reported, even Moreno, who frequently mentions Trump’s name in his ads, said in 2016 that there was “no scenario” in which he would support Trump, calling him “false.” “Republicans.” But that’s no different than Vance changing direction during the 2022 cycle.

“It’s candidate Trump versus someone else,” Kish said, noting that the former president’s support has the power to dispel any doubts about past loyalties.

And that’s where Saturday’s rally could come into play.

“Voters are paying attention, but what they’re paying attention to is whether Trump supports Bernie,” said a senior strategist for Moreno’s campaign.

Regardless of who wins Tuesday’s primary, Mr. Brown will face a tough race in a state where Mr. Trump twice won by 8 points. But he’s done it before, as has another Democrat running in the Trump state this year, Montana Sen. Jon Tester.

Republicans need only flip one or two seats to take control of the Senate, depending on who wins the White House, but West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin has announced that he will not run for re-election. Assuming they follow through on their declaration, Republicans have effectively gained one seat already. .

The early funding in Ohio shows how competitive both parties expect to be. The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC tied to Democratic leadership, has reserved $65 million in television ads, by far the most of the seven states that booked early. On the Republican side, the Senate Leadership Fund and related groups have earmarked about $80 million.

Campaign resources are also critical in this election, especially since candidates receive more favorable advertising rates than outside groups. Mr. Brown had raised nearly $5.7 million in the first two months of this year and had $13.5 million in the bank at the end of the primary reporting period, far more than any of his would-be Republican challengers. There are many But Mr. Dolan and Mr. Moreno have both loaned their campaigns millions of dollars, and there is likely more to the source of that money.

Each Republican has their own theory about why they are uniquely positioned to beat Brown. LaRose’s team, for example, has touted his experience as a statewide elected official and his border service, casting a relatively positive light on his lack of personal resources.

“Ohioans want someone they can empathize with who knows what it’s like to sit at their table and figure out how to pay their bills,” LaRose campaign communications Director Ben Kindel said.

Mr. Dolan’s team defends his fiscal conservatism while arguing that he can compete where other teams can’t. “He can run aggressively in rural Ohio,” Maloney said, adding that Dolan voted against the so-called Heartbeat bill in the state Senate, which would protect abortion for life plus rape and incest. He pointed out that this was because the exception was not included. mother.

Moreno emphasizes his background as an immigrant who “came here legally” and describes himself as an “outsider” who has never held political office and could oust the three-term incumbent. I pitched it.

Other than Brown, no other Democrat has been elected to a statewide office other than the judiciary in Ohio since 2008. Mr. Brown won his 2018 election by seven points, but he did not have the support of any major national party and was up against a weak Republican challenger.

Since then, the state has voted for Trump again by the same margin. And this time, Mr. Brown will also be participating in the vote.

“It’s true that Sherrod can win,” said Mr. Clegg, who led Bob Taft’s only campaign to defeat Mr. Brown for secretary of state in 1990. It changed very quickly. ”

But Democrats still view the state as a competitive state. Two years ago, Republicans forced tens of millions of dollars to be invested in races for open seats in 2022, while Democrats won three competitive House seats. And since then, Ohio has passed a law that enshrines the right to abortion in the state constitution. This is an issue that Brown’s camp has already made a point of contention with. grabbed They are trying to paint all Republicans as too extreme and a threat to the will of voters in the Buckeye State.

“Democrats, with the exception of Hillary Clinton in 2016, believe that these races are competitive and winnable if all are equal, or at least close to equal, in terms of resources and National Party involvement. We’ve shown that every time,” said a Democratic national strategist who has worked in Ohio.

They don’t deny that Ohio has turned even more red. And the election campaign with President Trump has become a challenge. However, there are opportunities even in a country with a presidential system that lacks competitiveness.

“The Senate race will be the main event in Ohio,” said a national Democrat working on the Senate race. “This will benefit Brown because his campaign will become the dominant voice in paid communications in the state and voters will no longer be bombarded with presidential campaign ads.”

CNN’s David Wright contributed to this report.