President Macron turns from dovish to hawkish over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

What was it that turned Emmanuel Macron from an appeaser to a warmonger on the Russia-Ukraine issue?

That’s the question being asked in prime ministerial offices across Europe – to put it crudely – as the French president expresses his desire for a new role as commander-in-chief of the continent’s resistance to Vladimir Putin.

Some countries, including the Baltic states and Poland, have welcomed Macron’s shift to a “realistic” assessment of the threat from Moscow.

Other countries, especially Germany under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are stunned by this new revelation. Va tan gael (Gung Ho) French spirit.

Everyone is confused and anxious. How genuine is Macron’s new path? Is his recent refusal to rule out sending troops to Ukraine just one of his surprises, evidence of his insatiable desire to rush diplomacy?

And how many of his new positions are purely political?

The European elections are approaching, and the far-right forces of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella look set to defeat Macron’s allies.

So, President Emmanuel Macron is using Ukraine to create a fault line between his camp and the opposition, setting up a contrast between his own obvious bellicosity and Le Pen’s past opaque collusion with Moscow. I wonder if there is one?

The president implicitly acknowledged these important questions being asked in a live interview on French television Thursday night.

But in true Macron fashion, he started asserting rather than placating. Far from calming his newfound wariness, he explained it.

The president’s view, who was not at all embarrassed by the “switch” from dovish to hawkish, was that one should necessarily take precedence over the other.

He argued that only after all efforts have been made to reach out to an adversary can one conclusively say that the adversary is out of line.

Moreover, in the second part of their self-justification, the Russians claimed that they were now taking their aggression to a whole new level.

He said the Kremlin had “become significantly more assertive” in recent months and was putting Russia’s economy on a permanent war footing. Intensify the crackdown on domestic dissent. Cyber ​​attacks against France and other countries intensify.

With Ukraine increasingly in trouble and the United States no longer reliable as an ally, he said Europe was entering a new world, “a world in which things we thought were unthinkable are actually happening.” Told.

This is why France and Europe needed to prepare, according to the new Macron doctrine. surreal so – A mental leap from the comfortable certainty of a dying age to the harsh reality of a new age.

In a deliberately Churchill-like tone, he believes that Europe needs to prepare for war in order to maintain peace.

As always with Emmanuel Macron, the logic is perfect. The argument doesn’t break.

But as always with Emmanuel Macron, there are questions about whether he can be persuaded, although he may be persuaded.

For the continuing difficulty of the French head of state is clearly not a lack of intelligence, but rather the ability to transform his brilliance into another talent: leadership. Ability to make others follow.

And it is by no means clear that other countries will follow the same path on this issue.

The most obvious sign is the growing rift between the French leader and Germany’s Olaf Scholz, who is supposed to be Europe’s closest ally.

In classic Franco-German style, the two countries are now publicly repairing and presenting a requisite common front. So President Macron visited Berlin on Friday.

However, no matter how much we hug, we cannot hide our fundamental disagreement. France has accused Germany of willful blindness in dragging its feet on aiding Ukraine and clinging to the permanence of the US security umbrella. Germany accuses France of reckless belligerence, hypocrisy (in fact it lags far behind Germany in arms deliveries) and Macronian status.

But even at home, support for Emmanuel Macron on Ukraine is weaker than he realizes.

According to opinion polls, a majority (about 68%) oppose his policy of sending in Western troops. More generally, while most people clearly oppose Russia, pollster Ifop reports that “support for the Ukrainian cause is gradually declining.”

And if his new hard line on Moscow, meant to expose the far-right’s obscurity, has any real electoral backing, it doesn’t seem to be working. Opinion polls show support only for strengthening Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).

President Macron has transformed into Europe’s leading anti-appeasementist and is once again breaking new ground.

He is leading the way, urging Europeans to think seriously about their safety and the sacrifices that may soon be necessary.

All of this is definitely welcome.

The problem with him is that too many people react badly to him.

They resent his self-confidence and feel that he too easily confuses what is right for Europe and the world with what is actually right for France, or for himself.