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Hours after the Florida Supreme Court cleared the way for an abortion access referendum on the November ballot, President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign touted Florida as “active” in 2024.
In a shift from their previously cautious stance on the state, Democrats argued that the measure would increase turnout, especially among progressives and young voters, and improve Mr. Biden’s prospects in the state.
But Democrats continue to face significant headwinds in the Sunshine State, according to the latest USA TODAY/Ipsos poll. Passing ballot initiatives to expand access to abortion also faces an uphill battle.
The court put abortion, a winning issue for Democrats, back in the spotlight with its ruling on the ballot measure and another decision upholding a six-week ban that goes into effect May 1. A competing bill, if passed, would guarantee abortion. Access up to viability, often 24 weeks.
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According to a USA TODAY/Ipsos poll, 50% of Florida voters say they support such an amendment, falling short of the 60% majority needed for passage in November.
Still, with 16% saying they are unsure of voting or not registered to vote, Democrats and abortion supporters need to tap into this potential cache before Election Day. Opinion polls show that Democrats have a wide gap in enthusiasm for the 2024 election compared to Republicans, with former President Donald Trump, who calls Florida home, leading Biden by 8 points.
Gap in enthusiasm?
In an election where everything could depend on turnout, 67% of Democrats said they were sure they would vote in November, compared to 80% of Republicans.
Abortion could add to that number for Democrats, but only about two-thirds of Floridians said they knew the courts had allowed the six-week ban to be invoked. Even fewer, just half, said they were aware that an amendment they opposed was on the ballot.
Concerns about abortion and contraception were largely along party lines.
Reproductive rights were one of the most important issues for Democratic voters, after inflation, the cost of living, and housing. For Republicans, the issue fell far down the list, below things like crime and immigration.
With about seven months until the election, enthusiasm seems like an uphill battle, but Syracuse University political science professor Shanna Ghadarian said there’s still plenty of time to capture voters’ attention.
“Maybe people aren’t enthusiastic about Joe Biden or Donald Trump,” she said, referring to the major parties’ presumptive presidential nominees. “But they’re going to be paying attention to other issues as they go to vote, and candidates and parties are going to do a lot of work to make sure they understand what’s at stake in this election. ”
Republicans still lead in Florida
The Biden campaign is keeping an eye on Florida, a state torn between red and purple.
Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said earlier this month: “We definitely see (Florida) as being engaged and we look forward to a strong effort there.” Ta.
However, the latest Florida poll shows Republican rival and former President Trump leading Biden by 8 points, with 39% of voters saying they would vote for Trump if the election were held today. Biden had 31%.
Also ahead of the president is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican who led his own 2024 presidential campaign until he resigned in January.
Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis are ahead of Mr. Biden in favorability ratings among Floridians, as is Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell, who about 75% of voters said they had never heard of. .
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Former state Rep. Mucarsel Powell is challenging Republican Sen. Rick Scott for the seat in November, with a 10-point lead over him.
Florida has trended Republican over the past three election cycles, with the Republican registration advantage over Democrats going from a deficit of 200,000 votes to nearly 1 million voters over their opponents. . Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016 by just over 1 percentage point, and four years later he widened that lead, beating Mr. Biden by more than 3 percentage points.
Democrats were also handicapped by low turnout two years ago when DeSantis won re-election by a 19-point margin.
Democrats have made recent wins on abortion.
Despite the potential headwinds, Democrats have reason to be optimistic in the Sunshine State.
Constitutional amendments for abortion access have had a perfect record of victories since Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 case that recognized a constitutional right to abortion, was overturned two years ago. There is.
Democratic candidates also thought talking about reproductive rights in the 2022 midterm elections and 2023 special election would give them an electoral boost.
Meanwhile, abortion has been a sore spot for Republicans nationwide, and it could be just as tough for Florida Republicans.
When evaluating the governor on a variety of issues, only 34% of voters said they approve of DeSantis’ handling of abortion and contraception. DeSantis signed a six-week suspension last April and has been a vocal opponent of the pro-abortion voting access bill.
University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett agrees that Democrats face a tough fight in Florida heading into the 2024 election, but two proposed constitutional amendments could be their trump card. added that there is a possibility
“Those who believe in a woman’s right to choose those who are already Democratic-leaning, even independents and some Republicans, feel that a six-week ban is too harsh,” Jewett said. Told.
Less than a quarter of Florida voters said they supported the national version of Florida’s six-week limit. Among Republican voters, this support was just over 40%.
“Florida residents across the state are pretty centrist and progressive,” Anna Hochkamer, executive director of the Florida Women’s Liberation Coalition, told USA TODAY ahead of the court’s April 1 ruling. Told.
“The only logical conclusion to draw from that is that this is a purple state for people with good ideas that appeal to Floridians.”
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