Opinion | What’s behind the EU’s surly atmosphere? “What did you get?”

Today, the European Union’s 27 countries, with a population of 450 million and around one-sixth of the world’s economy, face the prospect of more fundamental change. Farmers furious over war, immigration, the post-pandemic recession and climate action are accelerating the advance of populism in much of the EU just as the bloc prepares to hold new parliamentary elections this spring. ing.

Add to this the expected tsunami of deepfakes and disinformation orchestrated by the Kremlin, and the stage is set for what could be Europe’s most disorienting political change in decades. The underlying test will be whether the center can sustain itself amid turbulent headwinds after decades of broad agreement.

The EU vote – actually 27 separate elections to be held in each member state between June 6 and 9 – will elect more than 700 members of the union’s parliament for five-year terms. Become. Despite its limited powers, the agency retains the ability to thwart and derail laws and policies that shape life across the continent.

The results will determine whether dominant non-right-wing parties, capitalizing on the wave of protest votes, will be able to undermine the EU’s firm stance on climate change, Russian aggression and the creeping rise of authoritarianism on the continent and elsewhere. It’s decided. If these parties are able to break the centrist grip on power, it could trigger a seismic shift even as the EU’s closest ally, the United States, shifts its strategic focus to Asia.

Opinion polls ahead of the election showed that the centrist majority is expected to remain, albeit shrinking, even as far-right groups, including Russia-friendly parties, have gained strength. Right-wing populists, who generally oppose the EU’s integrationist policies and powers, are expected to win in France, Poland, Italy and six other countries, according to a recent analysis by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Still, the far right has repeatedly overperformed, particularly in last fall’s Dutch elections, when few expected a victory for the long-marginalized anti-immigration party.

Although the election is unlikely to hinder European support for Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a long game in Europe. His aim is not only to reverse support for Kiev, but also to use propaganda to fuel the continent’s nerve-wracking divisions. And in the EU he has a lot of holes.

In the past six months, French authorities have exposed two large-scale Kremlin-led projects to flood Europe with disinformation ahead of the EU elections. One, called “Portal Kombat,” featured about 200 of his websites where he could create disinformation in English, German, French, and Spanish. Another case, dubbed “Doppelgänger” by EU officials, involves more than 1,000 bots on X (formerly Twitter) linked to a Russian-led network spreading fake news through fake replicas of Western media sites. Ta.

Germany, the EU’s largest country by population and economy, has offered particularly soft targets. There, an unpopular and dysfunctional government struggles to revive a stagnant economy. Due to a lack of public investment, basic infrastructure, including the railway system, has fallen into disrepair.

The growing number of unhappy Germans, especially the elderly, is a key factor in the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. Despite sensational reports that some senior leaders had discussed a “master plan” to deport millions of foreign-born German citizens, the party’s approval rating remained at nearly 20%. This is higher than any of the three ruling coalition parties.

The persistence of the AfD’s popularity, as well as that of other European populist parties riding a wave of anger against migrants, suggests that the EU parliament elected this spring will support tougher measures against asylum seekers. . This could pose long-term problems for a continent where birth rates are falling and could undermine growth prospects for an economy and workforce facing increasing competition from China.

A significant rise by populist parties could pose a challenge to the EU’s ambitious plans to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. These measures have largely remained in place despite backlash from farmers’ protests and other protests, prompting authorities to roll back some rules.

The powerful European Union has raised around $1 trillion in relief funds to keep member states solvent during the pandemic. It has led a coordinated, if inadequate, response to Putin’s aggression.

It would be in the continent’s, and the West’s, best interests to stay the course. But unfriendly voters across the continent may force the EU to narrow its vision. These are reminiscent of Marlon Brando’s character in the 1953 Hollywood classic “The Wild One.” When I asked him what he was rebelling against, he replied, “What have you got?”