Opinion: Europe should rearm now

LONDON – Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House in 2025 poses a serious threat to European security. With the war in Ukraine still raging, European countries must strengthen their defenses against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s revivalist aggression before it is too late.

The prospect of President Trump acting unchecked and unfettered on the threat of abandoning America’s historic commitment to the defense of Europe is deeply worrying to most European leaders, who reject it. It seems so. But decisive victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary make it almost certain that Trump will become the Republican presidential nominee in November’s election. His return to power is a real and present danger, given that he leads President Joe Biden in national polls and in many battleground states.

During his first term, Trump repeatedly threatened to pull the United States out of NATO, the military alliance that ensures the United States extends its nuclear umbrella to Europe. He was persuaded not to do so by senior foreign policy advisers, particularly former National Security Adviser John Bolton. But President Trump’s increasingly isolationist rhetoric suggests that if re-elected, he will surround himself with yes-men rather than experienced establishment figures.

Stoltenberg: Valid concerns about the level of defense spending of NATO allies

NATO’s European allies and Canada have increased defense spending to record levels, but criticism that alliance members are not spending enough is justified, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. He spoke on the 14th of the month.

Mr. Trump would need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO, but he could undermine U.S. security without formally abandoning the alliance. He could simply declare that the United States has no intention of defending European countries in the event of an attack. And now he has said exactly this: Far from defending a NATO country under attack by Russia, he has told Russia to “do whatever they want” if he determines that the NATO ally in question is not spending enough on defense. will “encourage” them to “do”.

Rather than simply hoping for a best-case scenario in which Biden is reelected, supports Ukraine, and continues to honor U.S. defense commitments to NATO allies, Europe must prepare for the worst. Ideally, these preparations should have started sooner, such as after Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 or after Trump’s election in 2016.

Had the foundations of a European Defense Alliance been laid within NATO a decade ago, the European Union could now benefit from enhanced joint defense research and a more efficient military acquisition strategy. At the very least, more European countries should have followed Poland and Estonia and significantly increased their defense budgets in the two years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It is impossible to turn back the clock, but it would be irresponsible to not act now. First, Europe needs to step up its support for the war in Ukraine. The Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives has rejected Biden’s request for $60 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine, leaving the conflict-hit country short on arms and ammunition.

Fortunately, the EU has finally approved a four-year, 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package for Ukraine that Hungary’s pro-Putin Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had blocked in December. Europe should also commit to supporting Ukraine in the long term, even if the US no longer does. If Orbán refuses to go along, the other 26 member states will have to bypass him and provide Ukraine with the resources it needs.

It is now abundantly clear that unless Russia is defeated in Ukraine, Putin will attack other European countries. The Kremlin has already worked to destabilize European democracies by funding far-right and far-left anti-EU parties and deploying large numbers of bots to spread electoral disinformation on social media. I’m here. Meanwhile, hackers backed by President Vladimir Putin are targeting critical infrastructure such as power grids and government databases, and Russian warplanes have violated the airspace of Sweden and Estonia.

Therefore, Europe also needs to increase its defense spending. European countries must at least meet NATO’s target of 2% of GDP. In February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared the “Zeitenwende”. There was a (turning point) in the country’s foreign policy and a renewed commitment to rearmament. But almost two years later, he still has not fulfilled his promise to invest 100 billion euros in modernizing the country’s military. Notably, Germany’s defense spending is projected to remain at 1.2% of GDP in 2023.

More EU funding is also needed. Thierry Breton, the EU Commissioner for Internal Market, recently proposed the creation of a €100 billion EU defense fund to finance joint defense procurement and increase production of arms and ammunition. Breton’s proposal, likely supported by his close ally, French President Emmanuel Macron, is a promising first step.

Given that the European economy dwarfs the Russian economy, EU countries could easily produce enough weapons to meet Ukraine’s and their own defense needs. But such investments take time and require continued engagement from governments, so time is not wasted.

NBU Governor: Ukraine’s victory should be part of the central bank’s mission

The following is a speech by Andriy Pishny, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), at the conference “Central Bank Independence in a Changing World”. The conference was organized by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) in Brussels for the Presidents of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) constituency.

It is true that Russia has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons. By contrast, only two countries in Europe have nuclear weapons: France and the United Kingdom (no longer part of the EU and heavily dependent on American technology). Given that President Putin has already threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Europe needs to develop its own nuclear deterrence strategy. But this will require a credible commitment from both France and the UK to use their nuclear capabilities to protect countries such as Estonia and Poland.

More controversially, countries not protected by the US nuclear umbrella may feel compelled to acquire their own nuclear weapons. Although Ukraine has given up its remaining nuclear weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has learned the hard way that security alone is not enough to deter a potential Russian attack.

All countries with nuclear power plants and the necessary scientific know-how have the ability to develop their own weapons relatively quickly. Additionally, France may offer to share its technical expertise with other European countries. Europe’s rearmament may seem drastic, but it is a matter of survival. With June’s European Parliament elections just around the corner, voters should put defense first.

Editor’s note: Copyright, Project Syndicate.This article published Published by Project Syndicate on February 13, 2024 and republished with permission by Kyiv Independent. The opinions expressed in the editorial section are those of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.