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- Long Island is holding a special election to replace former U.S. Rep. George Santos’ seat.
- Polls show a close race, but Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi has a slight lead.
- But several inches of snow is expected to fall on Tuesday, which could affect turnout.
As voters in New York’s 3rd Congressional District cast their votes in Tuesday’s special election, heavy snowfall across the region could play a key role in shrinking the already slim Republican House majority. .
The 3rd Congressional District seat, which represents Queens and parts of Long Island, is currently vacant after the House majority passed a resolution to expel former Republican Rep. George Santos in early December 2023. ing. The seat is currently vacant, held by former Democratic state Rep. Tom Suozzi, who previously represented the district. He is currently competing against Republican Mazip Pilip to fill the role for the remainder of the parliamentary term.
Polls in the weeks leading up to the special election showed Mr. Suozzi appeared to have a 4 percentage point advantage over Mr. Pilip. But bad weather could hamper Tuesday’s turnout for either candidate.
In 2007, a group of researchers wrote in the Journal of Politics that “compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation at a rate of just less than 1% per inch; An inch of snowfall reduces turnout by almost 5%.”. ”
With this in mind, Tuesday’s turnout could be even lower than expected. Politico reported on February 10 that Suozzi held a lead at the time in reported early voting. If snow and ice conditions continue, Mr. Suozzi could have an additional advantage if voters have trouble getting to the polls or simply don’t want to go outside.
Nevertheless, there is still hope for Pillip and the Republican Party. The aforementioned report also notes that “bad weather” tends to benefit Republicans more than Democrats.
Unique and impactful special election
There are 435 members in the House of Representatives, and special elections are often held to fill vacated seats when members retire or die while in office.
The circumstances behind New York’s 3rd Congressional District vacancy are quite different, with Mr. Santos becoming the sixth congressman ever removed who was not originally convicted of a crime or was not a Confederate congressman. It all started when he became a member of the Diet for the first time.
Additionally, the majority party in the House is typically far above the current balance, and Republicans would have to force virtually all members to vote in lockstep to pass anything without Democratic help. There is.
A victory for Pillip would give Republicans a little more leeway to pass the bill, bringing them one vote away from potentially impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, which narrowly failed in the full House in early February. You could do that.
Conversely, Suozzi’s retaking of the seat would bode well for the 2024 elections for the Democratic Party, which lost control of the district in the 2022 midterm elections.
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