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Inside the halls of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, unwanted ghosts of Munich’s past – authoritarianism and appeasement – dominated the screen this weekend.
For everyone at the conference, the heavy feeling that Europe as we have known it since the end of World War II had reached the end of an era of peace hung thick in the air in the packed Munich hallways. You didn’t want to object to that.
These are topics of conversation among world leaders, security officials and military brass, and the name Donald Trump and the new damage he has inflicted on the Atlantic Alliance is on the lips of most Europeans. However, this was at a time when times were becoming increasingly uncertain.
Undoubtedly, the core question remained: whether the current Ukraine aid problem can be fixed. The answer is mainly yes, but only if the West has the political will to act accordingly.
For Kiev, there were no tangible results that would bring significant relief to the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces on the front lines. The fall of the Ukrainian frontline town of Andivka added to the sense of doom and gloom.
There was no indication that Washington might soon approve the $60 billion aid package currently pending in the U.S. House of Representatives, at least beyond the assurances of the large U.S. delegation.
Despite the US’s public assurances, it was the US Republican’s comments that sparked conversation at the venue’s bars and coffee shops.
Perhaps the most striking contrast is the interaction between the two second-rate actors.
Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio argued that the United States was not producing enough munitions to aid Ukraine and that “the rational thing to achieve is a negotiated peace.”
Ricarda Lang, co-leader of Germany’s Green Party, quickly shot back, saying it showed Russian President Vladimir Putin did not want peace.
Indeed, Europe has undergone significant changes over the past two years in its threat perception and the need to deal with the emerging Russian threat.
“For a long time, there has been silent disarmament in Europe,” said Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, reflecting on changes in Europe’s defense policy.
Still, several participants told me with exasperation that they never expected a day when Green Party politicians would take a more hawkish stance toward Putin than Republican senators.
A day earlier, Vance’s colleague, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, was booed on stage for comparing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border; Republicans are becoming increasingly insistent.
“Isn’t it strange? All of a sudden, it’s us Europeans who need to be the moral compass on this issue,” one participant told me over a drink.
“If you listen to the speeches, our people are saying the right things, but the question is whether they can translate them into the right actions,” they added.
Finland’s next president, Alexander Stubbe, perhaps put it best: “This is the 1918, 1945, 1989 moment of our generation.”
Munich Memo |
- Coverage of Russian opposition leaders Mr. Alexei Navalny The death overshadowed two major conflicts at the news conference, where his wife Yulia took to the stage.
- All eyes were on the Vice President of the United States. kamala harris It highlights the Biden administration’s commitment to global engagement and U.S. leadership.
- president of ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky He issued a stern warning to a packed chamber, invited former US President Donald Trump to accompany him to the front lines, and told world leaders not to fear defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The EU needs to double its military aid to Ukraine to fill the hole left by the US after months of new aid being blocked by the US Congress. Kiel InstituteThe group that monitors Western aid to Kiev said in its latest report.
- german chancellor Olaf Scholz Like many other European leaders who spoke on main stages and at sideline events, he said that no matter who wins the next U.S. election or what happens with the war in Ukraine, Europeans need to do more about security. .
- Dutch Prime Minister retiring mark rutte“People need to stop moaning, complaining and bitching about President Trump,” said the man, who is widely considered a front-runner to become the next NATO secretary-general. Read our interview with him here.
- President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen The EU said it “needs to strengthen its defense industrial base.” She also gave traction to the argument that the bloc should get its own defense commissioner portfolio, in addition to the current structure.
- Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Radek Sikorski and Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Olha Stefanishna There is an agreed upon issue between the two countries regarding grains that needs to be resolved.
- Diplomats from the Middle East flocked to Munich one after another, some hoping for a window into peace in Gaza. EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell He said the situation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank is a major obstacle to finding a long-term solution for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
- president of israel Isaac Herzog Representatives of the hostages’ families were also present, calling for the return of the hostages to be a top priority.
- prime minister of qatar Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani Regarding prospects for a deal, he said “some good progress has been made in negotiations in recent weeks,” but differences remain. Other Arab officials agreed that ending the current humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza must be a priority.
- Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt Same Shukri He said the following at the meeting: [Israeli] military action there [in Rafah] It would have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation. ”
- Apart from Ukraine and Gaza, fear of climate change migration is the top security threat posed by Russia for respondents to the Munich Security Council’s latest survey.
- In the past, European crisis diplomacy has been watched from the sidelines one after another, including Serbia and Kosovo and Armenia and Azerbaijan, but it was surprising that less of that happened this time.
- Minister of Foreign Affairs of China Wang Yi He said in Munich that Beijing wants to be a force for stability and that China and Europe need to avoid “ideological chaos.”
defense briefing
Stay calm and invest | NATO’s European members are seeking to pre-empt the risks of new President Donald Trump’s inauguration and to maintain the alliance’s cohesion in the face of the most serious security challenges since World War II. We have embarked on a mission to prove that we are stepping up our efforts. .
New estimates released this week show that 18 of 31 NATO members will spend more than the required 2% of GDP on defense in 2024.
Belgian Presidential Palace | As pressure mounts to strengthen security in the Old Continent, Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder says efforts to strengthen Europe’s defense industry won’t give it autonomy overnight, but they need to start now. He told Euractic that there is.
Future strategy | With its long-awaited Defense Industry Program, the European Commission aims to use the bloc’s budget to rebuild its defense industrial base, expanding sustainable production across the continent and drawing from other supplying countries such as the United States. It shows a determination to increase the independence of
wider europe
Catch up | President Salome Zurabishvili told Euroactiv in Munich that Georgia is striving to catch up with Ukraine and Moldova, which are further afield on the path to EU membership, and the key is to hold orderly elections in October and form a pro-European government. He said that the EU will implement the EU recommendations. .
EU in the world
Russian assets | The European Union is moving to use the profits from freezing Russia’s central bank assets to help finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. The move, in line with steps taken by the G7, establishes a legislative route through which profits generated by confiscated Russian assets under certain circumstances could ultimately be channeled to Ukraine through the EU budget. It is.
Call to Gaza | Ireland and Spain are calling for an “urgent review” of Israel’s compliance with its human rights obligations under its trade deal with the EU, according to a joint letter seen by Euractic. This call was also supported by many EU MPs.
what else are you reading
On next week’s radar
- EU foreign ministers meet on Ukraine and Gaza
| Monday, February 19, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - ICJ hearing on Israeli policy in the Palestinian territories
| Monday, February 19, 2024 | The Hague, Netherlands - EU-Georgia Association Council
| Tuesday, February 20, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting
| Wednesday, February 21, 2024 | Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - UN Security Council holds meeting on Middle East
| Thursday, February 22, 2024 | New York, United States - UN Security Council meets on Ukraine issue – EU chief diplomat Borrell, Ukrainian FM Kuleba and others attend
| Friday, February 23, 2024 | New York, United States - Russia’s war with Ukraine enters third year
| Saturday, February 24, 2024 |
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[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]
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