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The EU is expanding. If all goes well, new member states will be added towards the end of this decade. And while all eyes are on Ukraine, which regained permission to begin accession negotiations in December, the next member to join is likely to be Montenegro, a small country on the other side of Eastern Europe.
A new coalition government will take office in October 2023, and the former Yugoslav republic hopes to follow the example of neighboring Croatia and join the EU. At least that’s what EU officials heard from Prime Minister Milojko Spažić at the Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) in Brussels on January 29th.
Spajić was welcomed with open arms. “I have attended many IGCs, but I have never seen such a positive atmosphere,” a civil servant in the room told me. The EU needs an enlargement success story, and Montenegro is the closest country to it. If the 27-strong member states are to show resolve in the face of Russian aggression, they had better open their doors, as NATO did with Montenegro in 2017. .
But Montenegrins are not basing their case solely on geopolitics. They claim they can demonstrate progress in meeting stricter EU standards for the Western Balkans compared to candidates for previous enlargement rounds. Montenegro leads the pack, starting all chapters of negotiations and finishing three of them.
If the European Commission’s Interim Benchmark Assessment Report at the end of April shows that sufficient progress has been made on judicial and other rule of law reforms, the Spažić government will indeed implement five more reforms by the end of this year. There is a possibility of closing the chapter.
In the meantime, Podgorica must convince skeptics that it is cracking down on corruption and organized crime, a phenomenon seen by many at home and abroad as deeply entrenched.
Montenegro has a mixed reputation. On the other hand, successive pro-Western governments have been fully aligned with the EU’s foreign policy, including sanctions against Russia that have had a major impact on Montenegro’s economy. Going back even further, it peacefully separated from Serbia in 2006. Relations with neighboring countries, including Croatia, which is an EU member state, are generally good.
On the other hand, the long rule of the Democratic Party for Socialism (DPS) and its leader Milo Djukanovic, who was in power from 1991 to 2020, became a symbol of state capture. The two unstable coalition governments that replaced the DPS after a pivotal election in August 2020 promised to accelerate the country’s EU integration, but have achieved little in practice. The phrase “Montenegro is the frontrunner” provoked vitriolic comments in foreign ministries in Brussels and across the EU.
This time it might be different. The centrist Europe Now movement (PES) won two important elections last year. The first was a presidential election, in which co-founder Yakov Milatovic defeated Djukanovic, followed by a general election in June. As a result, the minority cabinet of Dritan Abazovic, which had relied on the support of the DPS parliament, was replaced by a government with sufficient support. As a result, the City of Brussels was pleased to see important judicial appointments and legislation passed. Most importantly, the new government succeeded in carrying out the delayed census without any hitches. For the time being, the bitter dispute over Montenegro’s identity between self-identified Serbs and ethnic Montenegrins has subsided. Prime Minister Spajic would like to talk about jobs and growth rather than ethnic affiliation. Overall, political momentum is moving in the direction favored by Brussels.
However, many things can still go wrong. First, Montenegro’s politics remain volatile, and Spajić and Milatovic have been partying lately.
People also feared that PES was seen to be making a Faustian deal with For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG), a coalition of Serbian nationalist parties previously allied with Russia and vying for NATO membership. is holding. One of the ZBCG leaders, Andrija Mandić, is currently the Speaker of Parliament. To be fair, the coalition agreement commits Mandić to Montenegro’s pro-Western path, which includes NATO, recognition of Kosovo, sanctions against Russia, and most importantly, EU membership.
The ZBCG is voting on the legislation requested by Brussels. But critics question whether Mandic is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. He raises eyebrows when he stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik and holds the Serbian flag (“It’s actually Montenegro’s old flag,” Mandić claims). So is the support provided by Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić to the Serbian bloc. And under the partnership agreement, ZBCG will ultimately have to appoint three government ministers, a move that will be closely watched by both locals and the West.
Of course, the creeping fear of re-Serbization is being exploited by the DPS, which has been wearing the mantle of defender of Montenegro’s sovereignty and identity for more than a decade. The former ruling party will not mind being incorporated into the Spajić government in the name of excluding Serbia and solidifying Montenegro’s Western orientation. However, this could hinder legal reform.
There are also risks on the EU side. Not all member states take kindly to the argument that enlargement should be prioritized. Some experts fear it could put a damper on Montenegro’s ambitions to begin closing branches this year in preparation for concluding accession negotiations in 2028. Failure to make progress on the EU’s trajectory could lead to domestic political discord.
Montenegro may revert to its default state of basking in the glory of being a “front runner” without much changing internally. This would be a clear victory for the Western Balkans, who argue that the EU has lost credibility and therefore deserves to be courted by Russia, China and others.
A window of opportunity has opened for Montenegro. There’s no time to waste.
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