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The 2024 MLB season has technically begun, with the Dodgers and Padres clashing in back-to-back games overseas last week, but the remaining teams are scheduled to throw out the first pitch on Thursday.
As everyone expected, there are several teams with deep talent and playoff experience that are overshadowing the betting market.
You could probably make a pretty good case that at least three teams in each division of MLB, with the exception of the AL Central Division, are legitimate playoff contenders.
After a historic offseason spending spree, the Dodgers are the +320 favorites to win the World Series. This price translates to an implied probability of 23.8 percent for Los Angeles to win it all.
The Astros lead the American League market at +360 after reaching the postseason for seven consecutive seasons and winning two World Series and four pennants during that span.
Houston is priced at +700 to win another World Series title.
There is little value in investing in the Dodgers or Braves.
I think the Astros are on the decline, and the Yankees, even with the addition of Juan Soto, are still a top-heavy lineup and overvalued in a busy division.
Instead, let’s take a look at the AL teams that are ignored in both the pennant and World Series markets.
Minnesota Twins win AL (+1200, Caesars)
Last year, Minnesota won its first postseason series since 2002. The pieces appear to be falling into place, as the Twins have made the playoffs in four of the previous six seasons to no avail.
They have a crafty, elite pitching staff that leads the majors in strikeouts with 32.
Sure, Sonny Gray has left the team, but Pablo Lopez could be a contender for the AL Cy Young. Lopez limited opposing batters to a .269 xwOBA and held a 3.00 xERA. That was before he posted a 2-0 record with a 0.71 ERA in the postseason.
Both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are at an exciting turning point in their careers.
His bullpen ranks in the top five, allowing 2.95 hits per game. João Duran had a great year in his first two seasons in the major leagues, posting a 2.15 ERA and emerging as one of the most reliable closers at age 25.
Developing this staff has been a long and arduous process for front office management, but the final product is expected to be completed at AL Central in 2024.
The Twins have the highest ceiling at the plate, finishing 2023 in 6th place in wRC+. The team finished fifth in the AL with 4.76 points allowed per game, as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis suffered various injuries.
If these three can stay healthy through 2024, I expect the Twins to not only be a contender in the AL Central division, but a true pennant contender.
Minnesota Twins win the World Series (+3000, bet 365)
While we’re at it, we might as well help the Twins win the World Series. These are my favorite longshots on the market, with generous odds of +3000 on Bet365.
Considering their advantage against poor competition in the AL Central Division, they have the easiest path to the playoffs among the other 29 clubs. That should boost the numbers long-term, but the stability of the pitching staff is underrated, and the minors have enough depth at the position to be fresh in the postseason.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
Additionally, Minnesota runs data-driven operations, such as Rocco Baldelli deploying platoon lineups and successfully mirroring enemy forces.
Now that the Twins are out of their playoff funk, the bar has been raised for a serious shot at a title.
The Orioles and Mariners are also likely to acquire potential candidates, but both teams are still undecided regarding baseball in October.
If they plan on playing back-to-back games against the Rangers, they may want to have several key players undergo temperature checks in the summer when they return from injury.
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