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Climate scientist and former Mexico City mayor Claudia Scheinbaum won a landslide victory in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday, marking a double milestone: She became Mexico’s first woman and first Jew to be elected president.
Sheinbaum, 61, won what Mexican officials called the largest election in Mexican history, with the most voters participating and the most seats up for grabs.
It was a landmark vote that saw not one, but two women vying to lead one of the largest nations in the Western Hemisphere — and one that would put a Jewish leader at the helm of one of the world’s largest Catholic-majority countries.
The leftist Sheinbaum campaigned on a pledge to follow in the footsteps of Mexico’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, his mentor, pleasing his base but alarming his opponents. The election was seen by many as a referendum on López Obrador’s leadership, and her victory was a clear vote of confidence for López Obrador and the party he founded.
Lopez Obrador completely reshaped Mexican politics — millions of Mexicans were lifted out of poverty and the minimum wage doubled during his tenure — but he was also a deeply polarizing president, accused of failing to curb rampant cartel violence, sabotaging the country’s health care system and relentlessly undermining democratic institutions.
Still, Lopez Obrador remains widely popular, and his enduring appeal helped drive the choice of his successor — and, despite all the challenges facing the country, the opposition has failed to convince Mexicans that their candidate is the better choice.
“We love her and we want her to work like Obrador,” Gloria Maria Rodriguez, 78, from Tabasco state, said of Sheinbaum. “We want a president like Obrador.”
Primary results showed Scheinbaum won with at least 58 percent of the vote, beating Xochitl Galvez, an entrepreneur and former senator who ran on behalf of the opposition coalition, by at least 29 points.
Galvez said in an interview days before Sunday’s vote that “anti-establishment votes” against Lopez Obrador could help him win, but in reality many Mexicans still seem to associate Galvez’s party with an incompetent and corrupt system.
“Xochitl Gálvez does not represent change because the party that supports her represents the system,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexico City-based political analyst. “The majority of Mexicans want to see a continuation of the changes brought about by López Obrador.”
Many voters appear to support Sheinbaum as someone who can institutionalize the changes her leadership has brought. “We need more change in this country,” said Evelyn Roman, 21, a chemical engineering student from Mexico City who supports Sheinbaum. “We see the progress that’s been made over the last six years.”
Scheinbaum has plenty of experience: He has a PhD in energy engineering, served on a Nobel Peace Prize-winning UN panel of climate scientists and governed the capital of one of the largest cities in the Western Hemisphere.
Known as a low-key, demanding boss, Mr. Scheinbaum rose to the top by fully aligning himself with Mr. Lopez Obrador, who built an entire party around an outsized personality. During the election, he supported many of Mr. Lopez Obrador’s most controversial policies, including a series of proposed constitutional changes that critics said would severely undermine democratic checks and balances.
As a result, the president-elect finds himself battling the perception among many Mexicans that he is merely a pawn of his leader.
“There’s this idea, as a lot of columnists have said, that I have no personality,” Sheinbaum complained to reporters earlier this year, “that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is going to tell me what to do, that if I become president, he’s going to call me every day.”
Even if she has broad confidence from voters, she will face major challenges when she takes office in October.
Paula Sofia Vásquez, a Mexico City-based political analyst, said Lopez Obrador benefited from “the invincible popularity that comes from being a very charismatic leader” whereas “Claudia is at a disadvantage in that respect.”
Drug cartel violence continues to plague the country, causing mass displacement and sparking one of the deadliest electoral battles in Mexico’s recent history, with at least 36 candidates for office killed since last summer.
Carlos Ortiz, 57, a city employee in Mexico City’s Iztapalapa neighborhood, said the bloodshed led him to vote against Sheinbaum.
“I want to change everything,” Ortiz said, recalling the dozens of aspiring public office holders killed in recent months. “I don’t want the country to burn any more.”
President Lopez Obrador has focused his government’s attention on addressing the drivers of crime rather than fighting criminal groups, a strategy he calls “hugs, not bullets.” Murders have fallen slightly but remain near record highs, and reports of missing people have soared. Insecurity was a top concern for voters.
Scheinbaum said he would continue to focus on the social causes of violence, as well as work to reduce impunity and strengthen the National Guard.
On the economic side, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is currently the United States’ largest trading partner and is benefiting from the recent relocation of manufacturing from China. Its currency is so strong that it has been dubbed the “super peso.”
But there are simmering problems: The federal budget deficit has ballooned to about 6 percent this year and state oil company Pemex is operating with heavy debt, straining national finances.
“The fiscal risks we face today are unlike anything we’ve seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of Mexico Evaluates, a public policy research group.
Given the current fiscal situation, it’s unclear how Scheinbaum will deliver on a string of campaign promises, from building public schools and new health clinics to expanding social service programs.
“The problem I see is that a lot of the proposals are focused on spending and it’s unclear where the money is going to come from,” said Vasquez, the political analyst.
Another challenge is the broad range of new responsibilities given to the military, which has been tasked with running ports and airports, managing airlines and building a railroad through the Mayan jungle. “There’s no militarization of the country,” Mr. Sheinbaum said, suggesting he’s open to reevaluating the military’s involvement in public affairs.
Beyond domestic tensions, Scheinbaum’s fate will be intertwined with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
A re-election of President Biden would ensure continuity, but a return of Donald J. Trump to the White House would be much less predictable. Trump’s plan would see massive roundups of illegal immigrants and deportation to their home countries, potentially targeting millions of Mexicans living in the United States. He has already threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
And there’s a growing fentanyl problem: The U.S. government says drug cartels are making it in Mexico using chemicals imported from China, and Trump has threatened military action to combat the drug trade.
Scheinbaum said Mexico would have a “good relationship” with either Trump or Biden, and that his campaign would continue to work to stem the flow of migrants.
But dealing with such pressure from Washington, even in the form of incendiary campaign rhetoric, could be complicated.
Voters expressed confidence in Mr. Scheinbaum’s ability to meet those challenges. Daniella Mendoza, a 40-year-old psychologist in Villahermosa, Tabasco state, said she has supported Mr. Lopez Obrador for many years, including through his presidential defeat.
Mendoza was pleased with Sheinbaum’s social welfare programs and voted for him.
“Claudia is toeing the line, maybe with better ideas,” Mendoza said, “and having the first female president of this country is an accomplishment.”
Emiliano Rodriguez Mega He contributed reporting from Mexico City. James Wagner Originally from Tepetitan, Mexico.
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