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The special election added to a string of strong Democratic election results in recent years, as concerns loom over President Biden’s standing in the 2024 election.
1. The Democratic victory is significant for several reasons.
This victory is important for Democrats because it flips a seat.
Republicans won this district by 8 points just 15 months ago, and Mr. Suozzi’s victory was so comfortable that just over an hour after polls closed, about half of the votes were cast, and the race was over. summoned.
This means Republicans’ narrow House majority will become even narrower at 219-213. (Two Republican-leaning seats and one Democratic-leaning seat are open. Republicans probably won’t have a chance to regain their seven-seat majority until June.)
Legislation has already proven extremely difficult for the divided Republican House, and losing seats leaves less room for failure. Even what happened just hours before voting closed showed just how important it is. House Republicans voted 214-213 to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who was not impeached last week, by just one vote. If Mr. Suozzi had been seated, Republicans would once again be at a disadvantage.
Similarly, the district generally leans Democratic in federal politics and was held by Democrats before Santos. Mr. Biden won the district in 2020 by an 8-point margin, similar to Mr. Suozzi. Although the district has trended red in recent years, especially in 2022, it is not unexpected that Democrats could win it back.
But at a time when Democrats are anxious, effectively matching Biden’s 2020 performance is a good sign. And it would be just the latest in a long line of good Democratic elections, special or otherwise.
2. Significance and background of the special election
The question that comes up after every special election like this is, of course, how deep we should read into the country’s political environment. In a battleground state nine months before the presidential election, this is doubly the case.
The unsatisfactory answer is “some, but not too much.” It’s best to consider this in light of all the recent election fraud. But that image is also kind to Democrats.
Yes, this is people actually voting, not just a poll, but this is one district out of 435. It’s also an unusual district in a part of the country that leans strongly Republican in 2022, even though the rest of the country has historically had good elections favoring Democrats (especially the White House). (given that the parties that control it usually struggle).
There is also the fact that Mr. Santos did no favors for the party at all. And the candidate mix appeared to be more favorable to Democrats than the presidential mix. A late Siena College poll showed Suozzi with a 4-point lead, compared to Biden’s 5-point lead.
Generally speaking, parties that perform well in special legislative elections tend to do well in subsequent elections (as was the case with the Democratic Party in 2022, when a Supreme Court reversal was followed by a string of positive results). Roe vs. Wade. However, there are notable exceptions.
Therefore, it is better to have a holistic perspective. The overall picture is that Democrats have clearly fared better in most such races since 2022, in many cases better than they did in the 2020 election, which they won.
Since the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats have outperformed their 2020 presidential election results by an average of five points in more than 30 special legislative and statehouse elections, according to Daily Kos’ special election tracking. They beat their 2016 margin by an average of nine points.
They also had reason to cheer in other major elections, including the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and the 2023 election in which the blue side won a crucial Ohio abortion referendum. They also held the Kentucky governorship and turned the Virginia legislature blue.
Special elections haven’t resonated much for Democrats lately, but Suozzi’s victory on Tuesday was joined by Democrats’ lopsided victory in Pennsylvania, where they took control of the state Legislature in semi-competitive suburban districts.
There are several reasons to suspect that the Democratic turnout advantage in these special elections will not be sustainable in November. Republicans are so focused on Trump that voters may not vote as much when Trump is not on the ballot, but when Trump is on the ballot, they will vote. Actually it is.
But if it’s all about winning and performing well, Democrats continued to do that on Tuesday.
3. The Republican focus on immigration didn’t work.
Although we caution that these results cannot necessarily be extrapolated to the national political situation, there were some notable dynamics in the New York state race.
Perhaps the biggest factor was the failure of Republican attempts to advance competition on immigration.
Republicans focused on the issue early and often, pointing to Suozzi’s comments in 2022 that as county executive he “kicked ICE out of Nassau County.”
But Suozzi, who left Congress as a more moderate primary candidate for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in 2022, has emphasized pragmatism on the issue, calling for stronger border security and hoping that Republicans will supported the bipartisan Senate agreement that was last abandoned. week. Pillip echoed Republicans’ attacks on the bill, saying, “This bill simply legislates the invasion that is currently occurring on our southern border.”
One campaign doesn’t mean Democrats have found a winning message on immigration (an issue that bothers Biden more than any other), and Republican opposition to the Senate deal doesn’t mean they’ve found a winning message. It does not mean to cause any damage. But Mr. Suozzi appears to have offered a roadmap for navigating the issue, suggesting that the party’s rightward shift on border security could alleviate the problem to some extent.
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