Lessons learned from New York’s high-stakes special election

CNN
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Democrat Tom Suozzi is set to return to Congress after defeating Republican Maj Pilip in a special election to replace expelled serial fabricator George Santos. The result further shrinks Republicans’ already thin House majority and gives President Joe Biden’s party a boost as the general election comes into focus.

Mr. Suozzi’s success has given Mr. Biden and the national Democratic Party a much-needed editorial overhaul. It’s a bit of good news at a time of heightened anxiety about the president, with his meager poll numbers and growing concerns about his age and how it’s viewed by voters. A rematch with former President Donald Trump may be in the offing. While Biden won the race in 2020, Long Island’s Democratic Party had been losing the race ever since, until Tuesday.

Both parties have poured money into the race for New York’s 3rd Congressional District, but Democrats’ fundraising and registration advantages and Mr. Suoch’s, who has spent most of the past 30 years in or around the political center of Long Island, have been A combination of brand and enthusiastic base. Angered by Santos’ debacle, he delivered a victory that means it will be even harder to corral House Republicans.

For Pilip, who had vowed to run again in the fall, the loss meant an almost immediate rebuke from President Trump, who called her a “very stupid woman” in a social media post Tuesday night. . Until her final days on the campaign trail, Pillip refused to say whether she voted for Trump in 2020, although she did say she would reject the much-touted bipartisan Senate border bill. I followed his lead. The decision helped bring Suozzi closer to the former president over border issues. last week.

As Democrats celebrate and Republicans dust themselves off, here’s the bottom line:

From the beginning, the campaign bet on a series of issues, including immigration, inflation, Israel, and abortion. Although Suozzi talked about reproductive rights, he did not make it the center of his campaign. Inflation has remained almost flat. And with both candidates fully supporting Israel, there was no room for political or policy discussion.

Understanding this, Pillip and the Republican Party began blaming Suozzi for New York City’s immigration crisis and claiming that he and Biden had caused the crisis, but ultimately this line turned Suozzi into a moderate or centrist party. It was completely unacceptable to voters who had long identified themselves as Taoists. Suozzi was prepared for the debate when Pilip suggested he was allying with a progressive “team.”

“When you say I’m a member of the team, it’s as believable as when you say I’m a member of George Santos’ volleyball team,” he said. (And that was before the knowing reference to Rick Lazio that only experienced New York voters would understand.)

But most notable is that Suozzi and state Democratic leaders did not repeat their mistakes in 2022 and beyond. They aggressively countered Mr. Pillip’s immigration message and never felt that the issue, usually a Republican winner, put Mr. Suozzi at a disadvantage.

Mr. Suozzi’s victory is also a major coup for the New York Democratic Party and its leadership, which has faced intense internal criticism over the candidate’s underwhelming performance in the 2022 midterm elections.

Backed by significant outside funding, new grassroots organizing, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his political efforts, and top state and local Democrats, especially Gov. Kathy Hochul and state party chair Jay Jacobs. As a result, the party was unable to grant him a seat. To start sliding again. Not after the Santos debacle, with the whole country watching and the White House desperate for a (proxy) victory.

Victory had 100 fathers and they all got their well-deserved peacocks on Tuesday night. The special election gave New York Democrats a reprieve, if not redemption. It remains to be seen whether it will be effective against a different, perhaps weaker, candidate in the fall.

However, there is no arguing that they will be given every chance after this result.

However, the reason is not immediately predictable.

The heaviest snow in years fell in the tri-state region on Tuesday, disrupting the normal flow of election day, making travel difficult and schools closed. It’s a good thing for Democrats that they are very receptive to the idea of ​​early voting, unlike many Republicans who are in thrall to Trump.

As the storm hit Queens and Long Island on Tuesday, Republican groups and Pillip’s camp scrambled to drive voters to the polls, in some cases literally. The top Republican super PAC in the House came under fire on social media for spending relatively little snow removal money to clear roads in Republican-leaning areas.

But even if it didn’t snow, ordinary Republicans seem to have developed an early distaste for bank votes. As-yet-unknown statistics will give a clearer picture of what went wrong with Pilip, but there’s no doubt that the weather clouded the picture.

Suozzi was preparing to give a victory speech when he was interrupted by demonstrators accusing him of aiding and abetting Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza. Ta.

Then the same thing happened again. and again.

No doubt his rival was inclined to support Israel, but she was a member of the Israel Defense Forces before moving to the United States — during a dangerous military operation that lasted months. The interruption was a message to Democrats, especially Biden, as well as the former and future congressman from a predominantly Jewish district.

Although the brief demonstration before the speech garnered little attention, the anger among progressive grassroots voters, especially young voters, is real and lingering. While there may not be an increase in Republican votes in the fall, it seems certain that it will eat into Democratic support as it stands.

And in an age where political space is scarce, that’s a problem.

The race will always be of national importance, both because of the stakes in the House and because the district is structured much like the suburban battleground districts of presidential battleground states.

But Democrats would be wise to remember that Mr. Suozzi was a unique and uniquely talented candidate with deep ties throughout Nassau County, where the majority of voters reside. A former mayor, he was elected to the county’s top job in 2002, becoming the first Democrat in more than 30 years. After losing his bid for a third term and taking some time off, he returned to the House of Representatives and won the seat, winning three times, including a defeat of Santos in 2020, before stepping down for a failed gubernatorial bid in 2022. .

Simply put, despite Suozzi’s criminal record and all the advertising that was launched against him, voters in the district knew who he was — a pro-worker, state-run advocate.・He is a moderate faction who actively calls for the restoration of the local tax deduction (SALT). Nearly everyone on Long Island wants to return after Republicans abandoned it as part of their 2017 tax cuts.

Exactly how the district-wide vote was decided remains to be seen. Suozzi appears to have exceeded his expectations in Queens (a diverse borough rather than a suburb of New York City), but that may still mean the town helped him as much as the country. (Democratic Rep. Grace Meng of the neighboring 6th District and Asian American voters in the area gave Suozzi more support than expected.)

Pilip, on the other hand, was relatively unknown until he entered the race, and relatively unknown until he returned from the race. As a member of her county council, she rarely appears in public, and although she has held some notable events outside her district, she has been criticized for her relationship with Trump. seemed unsure of how to position himself.