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Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Donald J. Trump won Tuesday’s Michigan primary as the president and his predecessor race toward a rematch in November.
However, this result showed some of the fragility of the political alliance that the two countries have built amidst the critical situation heading into the fall. Losing some of that support is dangerous for both Biden and Trump. Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes in 2020, and Trump won by about 11,000 votes in 2016.
The results of Tuesday’s primary held particular weight because Michigan was the first state to hold a primary in 2024 as a general election battleground state.
There are four points to be drawn from the results:
“Uncommitted” succeeded in getting Biden’s attention.
When the campaign to persuade Democrats to vote “no-strings-attached” began three weeks ago, its public goal was clear. The goal was to put enough pressure on Biden to demand an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza.
Since then, senior White House officials have expressed regret to Arab American leaders in Dearborn, Michigan, over the administration’s handling of the crisis. Biden criticized Israel’s military actions, calling them “excessive.” And he said on the eve of the primary that he hoped a cease-fire agreement would be reached within a week. (Views from Israel and Gaza suggested Mr. Biden was slightly more optimistic.)
Still, the president’s campaign, which until this week had not anticipated the strength of anti-Biden sentiment among Michigan Democrats, was surprised by the strength of the “committed” effort.
As of early Wednesday morning, about 13% of primary voters had chosen “uncommitted,” a percentage that pales in comparison to Biden’s 81%, but is likely to make an effort to express disapproval of the president. represents more than 75,000 people in Michigan. .
The movement is now likely to spread to other states, many of which offer voters the choice of “no commitment” or “no preference” in their primaries. Listen, Michigan, the group that started the state’s protest vote, is organizing a call for supporters in Minnesota, where voting will be held next week, and Washington state, where the primary will be held on March 12th. There is.
“This is the only option we have to enact democracy at this point,” said progressive activist Asma Mohamed, one of the leaders of a new group called Uncommitted Minnesota. “We oppose President Trump, and we also want Mr. Biden to do better. If that means pushing him to the limit, that’s what it takes.”
The challenge for the Biden campaign will be to slow the momentum felt after Michigan by those protesting Gaza policy. As long as the war escalates and the U.S. continues to send aid to Israel, there is little Biden can do to appease voters angry about the rising Palestinian death toll.
Both powerful companies have obvious vulnerabilities.
Trump has long been the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Mr. Biden left little doubt that he would run again as a Democrat.
But on Tuesday, tens of thousands of Michiganders from both parties voted against the standard-bearer, suggesting the two parties may have trouble putting together a winning coalition in November. It was a harsh rejection. As Karl Rove, a former top strategist in the George W.
One reason the Michigan result appears to be more damaging to Biden than to Trump is a matter of expectations.
Haley has been campaigning against Trump for months, and her share of Republican voters has declined from New Hampshire to South Carolina to Michigan.
But after successfully winning the first two primaries in South Carolina and Nevada, Biden had $200,000 and three weeks to spare in a loosely organized Arab American political operation. The group has gained enough support to ensure that their efforts win delegates to the Democratic National Convention. .
Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud said, “If the White House is going to listen, if Congressional leaders are going to listen, if state leaders are going to listen, we need a change of direction. Otherwise, we’re going to have to face the U.S. in November.” “We risk a complete collapse of our democracy.”
Biden needs to keep an eye on college towns.
It was no surprise that “Uncommitted” defeated Mr. Biden in Dearborn and Hamtramck, the two Michigan cities with the highest concentrations of Arab Americans. With nearly all votes counted, Dearborn gave 56 percent of the votes in the Democratic primary to “No Account.” In Hamtramck, “Irresponsible” garnered 61 percent of the city’s Democratic votes.
Perhaps more concerning for Mr. Biden was his performance in Ann Arbor, a college town 30 miles to the west.
In the area, where most of the University of Michigan’s students and faculty live, “uncommitted” people received 19 percent of the vote. In East Lansing, home to Michigan State University, “non-commitment” received 15% of the vote.
No other battleground state has an Arab-American community as large as Michigan, but all have college towns and young progressive voters angry about America’s support for Israel.
It’s in those places — Madison, Wisconsin. Athens, Georgia. Chapel Hill and Durham, North Carolina. Tucson, Arizona. Particularly in State College, Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden faces the threat of a general election if he does not win overwhelming support and turnout among students in November.
Nikki Haley is still competing, but she’s not going to win.
Donald J. Trump won again. Nikki Haley lost again.
At one point in the nomination calendar, the Michigan primary could have been a brief but notable halfway point between the first four states and Super Tuesday.
But the lopsided results yielded similar results, with Trump leading everywhere in Michigan and Haley trending toward her weakest performance since the race narrowed to two candidates. . She is marching in seven states and Washington, D.C., with rallies and fundraisers planned ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5.
February has been a month of momentum, and Trump has it all. March is about delegates, and he also won most of them.
However, competition for delegates is rapidly accelerating. There are more delegates in contention in California alone on March 5th than in all of the January and February contests combined.
Haley’s campaign called her vote share, which was below 30% as of Wednesday, “a flashing warning sign for President Trump in November.” But that was a red flag for her current candidacy.
Nicholas Nehamas Contributed reporting from Dearborn, Michigan. Alice McFadden From New York.
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