Israel-Gaza meeting: the world is nervously watching to see what Iran will do next

The most explosive of the civil wars in this dire Gaza crisis is the official heated hostility between Israel and Iran.

It is now in its most dangerous period.

And many capitals in the region and beyond are watching with bated breath to see what Iran will do next.

This was the Iranian government’s move in response to an April 1 airstrike on diplomatic facilities in the center of the Syrian capital Damascus, killing a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander.

Israel has never admitted that it carried out such attacks, but everyone knows that they are the work of Israel.

And since the Israel-Gaza war broke out six months ago, Israel has stepped up its attacks on Iran, destroying Syria’s arms supplies and infrastructure as well as assassinating senior Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah commanders. There is.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned: “In accordance with God’s will, we will make them regret this crime and similar crimes.”

His vow prompted an immediate Israeli counterattack in an escalating war of words. The two major powers in the region have been at constant daggers since the 1979 Iranian revolution made hostility to the “Zionist regime” a core provision of their doctrine. For years, Israel has carried out targeted killings, stepped up cyber operations and warned about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions and support for militias such as Hamas that threaten Israel’s destruction.

“If Iran attacks from its own territory, Israel will counterattack and attack inside Iran,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz declared in a post on X (formerly Twitter) tagging the supreme leader. . This is the most modern method of communication for countries without diplomatic relations. .

Then the United States, Israel’s staunchest ally and Iran’s most powerful enemy, also intervened, warning that Iran too could face the wrath of the world’s most powerful military. “We will help Israel defend, but Iran will not succeed,” US President Joe Biden declared, suggesting that US intelligence was hinting at an attack “sooner or later.”

“The United States may now be forcing Iran to recalculate and reconsider its options,” said Dr. Sanam Baqir, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. look back.

American media, citing unnamed American sources, spoke of the possibility of an extremist scenario involving a large-scale Iranian attack on Israeli targets with waves of missiles, including drones and ballistic missiles.

“The United States may be using this message to raise expectations, so if Iran is unable to deliver on that, it will expose Iran’s weakness,” Dr. Baqir said, adding that there are concerns at the moment. He speaks with a nod to the uncertainty that fuels this.

Iran has long excelled at playing the long game, responding to any provocation with “strategic patience,” but it now faces a full range of options. Every choice involves risk.

Aging supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must give the green light for a counterattack to appease the radical Revolutionary Guards commanders who shape Iran’s foreign policy. He must also maintain Iran’s prestige as the centerpiece of an “axis of resistance” of armed allies and proxies. They have been encouraged and energized by the limited but still deadly attacks in this Gaza war.

But this choice also needs to be carefully calibrated to avoid triggering a dangerous escalating spiral. Drawing the formidable fighting forces of Israel and the United States into this vortex could have devastating consequences for the Islamic Republic.

The ailing 84-year-old supreme leader took office in 1989, a year after the punishing Iran-Iraq war that claimed the lives of 200,000 Iranians. He still casts a long, dark shadow.

“Avoiding war is essential to his legacy,” said Iranian analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelij. “Any retaliation against Israel will be designed to avoid all-out war.”

But this moment is uncharted territory.

A precision missile attack earlier this month destroyed the consulate general annex next to the Iranian embassy and killed several members of the Revolutionary Guards, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the regional supreme commander of the Quds Force, the top-secret elite force in charge of foreign operations. Name was murdered.

And it happened on Iranian diplomatic property, which Iran considers its territory.

Israel has been waging what it calls “wars between wars” for many years. Attacks on arms shipments, facilities, and routes inside Syria are said to be used by Iranian operatives and their allies, including their most valuable and powerful proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. . But in recent months, as tensions in the Gaza war escalate, it has upped the ante, using opportunities for targeted assassinations.

Iran’s response so far has been to fight back primarily through proxies. The shadow war ranges from hostilities with southern Lebanon along Israel’s northern border, where Hezbollah is stronghold, to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria that have attacked US targets, and now attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes in Yemen. It has also spread to the Houthi rebels.

In January, Iran responded directly after a suspected Israeli airstrike in Syria killed military advisers to the Revolutionary Guards. However, the government has selected what it considers “soft targets” that are unlikely to provoke large-scale retaliation. A ballistic missile was fired toward northern Iraq, believed to be a base for the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. It then launched missiles and drones against Baloch separatists operating across the border in neighboring Pakistan, in a new show of force to signal readiness for action. Both sparked anger, and in Pakistan’s case retaliatory airstrikes from its traditional allies, but tensions quickly eased.

In the midst of this current crisis, Iranian and Israeli consciousness is focused not only on this dangerous retaliation, but also on the more fundamental issue of deterrence. Both sides want to send a clear signal to the other that such a consequential attack would be costly and best avoided in the future.

Preserving the Islamic Republic is a top priority for Iran, which is under pressure at home due to unprecedented women-led protests over restrictions on freedoms and financial woes. But it also wants to protect its growing influence across the region and the extensive political and military networks it has built over decades.

Options range from direct attacks on military targets inside Israel, to long-range operations against Israeli embassies and interests elsewhere in the world, or even retaliation, again through proxies. The well-connected Amwazi media report cited the occupied Golan Heights in northern Israel, land seized from Syria in the 1967 war, as a “primary target” and a lower-risk option.

Israeli expert Raz Zimt, a senior fellow at the Tel Aviv National Security Institute, believes Iran will act forcefully. “Iranians’ patience has run out in the face of setbacks blamed on Israel,” he wrote on X.

Iran seized a commercial ship with ties to Israel early Saturday morning, but Zimto said Tehran was unlikely to see this as an “appropriate response” and added: “We urge Iran to reconsider its next course of action. There may be additional time available,” he added.

However, there is no consensus among Iran watchdogs on what final action to take. And there is a risk that what Iran sees as a carefully calculated act could be seen as, or end up being, a seditious miscalculation.

Ali Baez of the International Crisis Group told the BBC: “Iran appears to want to respond directly.” “Iran does not want to sacrifice Hezbollah or bring it into the fray. Hezbollah is the tip of its spear and Iran wants to keep it that way.”

There is also the option, at least for a while, to attack not in the midst of this storm, but when it is least expected.

“There is hope that Iran will respond, but there is also the option of doing nothing,” says Chatham House’s Dr Baqir. “The option for Iran not to engage in what could be a provocation of Israel is also on the table.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under tremendous political pressure at home and has long advocated military action against Israel’s arch-enemy, and is known to have been pulled back from the brink at least once.

Behind the scenes, urgent messages are being exchanged between the United States and Iran through third parties, including several Arab countries, in an effort to avoid an all-out war that no one wants. Iran believes it is important to develop its image as a regional power.

In this wait-and-see moment, airlines suspended flights, embassies closed, and citizens warned to leave Israel. The United States is deploying warships at strategic locations to better protect American and Israeli forces, and is strengthening air defenses to protect American troops in Iraq and Syria.

Israel and other countries in the region are on high alert for anything to happen elsewhere.