ISIS-K attack in Moscow raises concerns of conspiracy in US and Europe

A deadly attack by ISIS-K on a Moscow concert hall last week has raised concerns that plots by the terrorist group, once confined to Afghanistan, could be carried out in the United States and Europe sooner than expected. is increasing.

Moments earlier, four gunmen from the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), an offshoot of the Central Asian terrorist organization Islamic State, stormed the Crocus Town Hall Theater in Moscow, killing at least 143 people and killing 100 others. He claimed responsibility for causing the above injuries. Concert on March 23rd.

The high-profile attack was the deadliest against Russia in two decades, given the group’s limited ability to carry out attacks beyond the Middle East just a few years ago. It’s even more unpleasant. Experts warn that the speed with which ISIS-K is expanding its reach should be taken seriously.

“I’m hesitant to say, ‘Oh, this is an imminent threat to the U.S. homeland,’ but the fact is, [ISIS-K] We’ve been able to evolve from this group that was generally confined to Afghanistan and its neighboring areas, and now we’ve got ties to all these conspiracies that extend far beyond Afghanistan, including Europe, and that’s very worrying. “I think so,” said Michael Kugelman of The Washington Post. , the Wilson Center based in DC.

Founded in 2014, ISIS-K aims to establish an Islamic caliphate in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The group, known for its extreme brutality, was formed by disgruntled Afghan and Pakistani Taliban militant groups and eventually began recruiting more broadly from Central Asia.

The group suffered a blow in 2017 when the Islamic State lost its caliphate in Iraq and Syria after heavy fighting between U.S., Iraqi and Kurdish forces in Mosul, Iraq. NATO airstrikes in 2018 further reduced it.

Still, ISIS offshoots continue to spread around the world in unchecked areas, said Kabir Taneja of the Observer Research Foundation, a leading Indian think tank.

ISIS “continues to thrive in other parts of the world, probably areas that most people don’t really care about,” Taneja said. Therefore, while the “threat may have appeared small, slow, or ineffective,” ISIS’s “continued group of allies in Afghanistan, Africa’s Sahel region, Mozambique, and even Syria are It is slowly gaining ground in these regions.”

Kugelman said ISIS-K is now likely the most active and powerful of the Islamic State’s regional organizations.

ISIS-K has focused most of its attacks on Afghanistan, most notably the August 2021 bombing outside the monastery gates of Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The bombing, which killed at least 183 people, including 170 Afghan civilians and 13 U.S. military personnel, “kind of woke up the world to the threat posed by this group,” Kugelman said.

Other notable attacks include a suicide bombing in front of the Russian embassy in Kabul in September 2022, and two suicide bombings in Kerman, Iran, on January 3, in front of Qasem Soleimani. Nearly 100 people died at a ceremony marking the anniversary of the president’s death. The elite Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The United States strongly views the group as a continuing threat, with U.S. Central Command leader Gen. Michael Kurilla saying last March that ISIS-K was rapidly building the ability to conduct “foreign operations” in Europe and Asia. He warned lawmakers that he was.

He said an attack inside the U.S. was not very likely, but ISIS-K attacked U.S. and Western interests outside Afghanistan “within just six months and with little or no warning.” I predicted it would be possible.

Then, in September 2023, the Department of Homeland Security released its annual threat assessment, stating that the United States was at “high risk” of a terrorist attack, and identified ISIS-K as the likely perpetrator.

Europe has also been on high alert following the Moscow attacks, with Italy and France raising their security levels following mass shootings.

Adding to the tension, ISIS spokesman Abu Futaifa al-Ansar on Thursday called on followers to specifically target “crusaders” in Europe and the United States. The propaganda was released to mark the 10th anniversary of ISIS’ first declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials say they remain vigilant against the evolving threat posed by the inclusion of ISIS-K and other terrorist groups.

“The Department of Defense is keeping an eye on ISIS,” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday.

But that vigilance has been hampered by the 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan, reducing Washington’s ability to deploy intelligence against ISIS-K and other extremist groups in Afghanistan.

“When the United States left Afghanistan more than two years ago, the writing was clear on the wall: ISIS-K was a serious threat, and that threat would only grow in America’s absence,” the Atlantic Council said. the ambassador said. Nathan Sales is a former State Department counterterrorism coordinator.

He further added: “I think we’re in a very difficult position right now in terms of our ability to gather actionable intelligence on the group, let alone take action. . . . Afghanistan has the necessary resources to gather and take action. There are no assets at all. This is a very frightening situation at a time when ISIS-K is developing capabilities that align with its intent to attack its adversaries.”

This idea is echoed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who last week linked the Moscow attack to U.S.-Mexico border policy, saying on ABC’s “This Week” that it was “common sense” and that commercial stated that the purpose is Human smuggling groups with reported ties to ISIS are “definitely [their network] This is to move agents into the country.

“We’re not claiming there’s an imminent threat to the United States, but we’re saying the border situation and the existence of that network is a threat to the United States,” said Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Rubio.

Sales said the porous southern border is a big concern, but it’s not the only one.

“We are also concerned about terrorists being able to enter the country through other means, whether they were able to obtain visas at consulates overseas, or whether they were able to exploit vulnerabilities in the Visa Waiver Program to travel from overseas without passing through a visa. “There has to be a visa check,” he said. “There are many routes terrorists could take to carry out operations here in their homeland.”