Is it time to panic about Europe’s rusty defenses?probably

The gaping holes in Europe’s defenses are being addressed, but too late.

Warnings of war are heavy in the air. Now we have a lot of people coming in quickly, including the NATO commander, the Swedish defense minister, the Estonian prime minister, the German defense minister, the British defense minister and foreign minister.

Needless to say, these do not predict conflict, but hint at it. No one wants to excite voters. And they’re talking about a 3-20 year timeline, so the message is that the Russians are coming, but not quite yet.

Denmark’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in February: “We cannot rule out the possibility that within three to five years Russia will test Article 5 and NATO unity.” “That is not an assessment of NATO in 2023. This is new information.” He noted that Russia’s military production has increased significantly and that Europe is not matching it.

The barrage of grim news from Europe’s security elites is undoubtedly alarming and reflects two things. Firstly, the belief that Donald Trump’s return would make the US an unreliable ally and thereby encourage further Russian aggression, and secondly, the belief that NATO in Europe is completely unprepared to fight. .

The signs are everywhere. The German army is said to be in a terrible state, with a military commander saying that in 2022 the German army will be “more or less disintegrated.”

France traditionally provides one of Europe’s great land armies, but the country’s former chief of staff said in the same year that the military was not prepared for a violent war. In 1994, a promise to prepare for war in three divisions of 50,000 soldiers was reduced to one division of 15,000 soldiers in 2013.

The same goes for the UK. A 72-page House of Commons report titled “Are you ready for war?” released on February 4 paints a picture of the military in very dire conditions. The Ministry of Defense classified much of the material sought by the committee, but what was released was dark.

British troops are very capable (see performance) HMS Diamond The Red Sea and Royal Air Force Typhoons (which fly long distances to attack Houthi targets) have become significantly overburdened and are suffering from severe manpower shortages.

For every 5 new hires (mostly untrained), 8 experienced people leave. It said private companies contracted to fill the quota could register just 68% of the required number in 2022-2023, which could reach 70% this year.

Other findings include:

• For the UK to commit an army heavy division to NATO would likely require the addition of brigades borrowed from allies.
• Lack of infantry fighting vehicles
• lack of cannons
• severe ammunition shortage
• Severe shortage of fighters and pilots
• Insufficient domestic air and anti-missile capabilities
• Shortage of close support artillery for the Regular Army
• lack of air transport,
• There are not enough Royal Marines special forces needed for a brigade-sized deployment to NATO’s northern wing.

The Government told the Committee that many of these issues were recognized and were being addressed. It pointed to a new 2.5 billion pound ($3.2 billion) program to expand ammunition factories and production to replenish stocks that military witnesses said had fallen to dangerously low levels. (A former deputy chief of defense staff said he would be surprised if the British military had the ammunition to fight a violent conflict lasting more than a week.)

New equipment programs are underway, and the government has promised to increase defense spending to 2.25% this year, with an “ambition” to reach 2.5%, although no date has been specified.

But the truth is that it will take up to a decade for European NATO to return to its post-Cold War readiness status.

Remember that Britain and France, Europe’s only nuclear powers, have the most capable militaries on the continent. If they struggle, others will be in an even worse position.

A senior Estonian general said. new york times “Over the past few years, it has also become very clear that NATO as a military alliance, many countries are not prepared to conduct large-scale operations, which means, in simple human terms, that many NATO forces are not ready to fight Russia.”

Soldiers, ministers, and other members of the security establishment are not complacent. There is a widespread perception that three decades of peace dividends, when money flowed from sword to plowshares, have dulled and rusted the military machine.

Germany is also responding.Prime Minister Olaf Scholz is now famous Zietenwende, or the watershed, in a February 2022 speech after Russia’s full-scale invasion, in which it pledged 100 billion euros ($108 billion) for defense. Spending has increased from a meager 1.4% of GDP in 2022, but there are questions about whether the increase will be enough. Germany has also been generous to Ukraine, sending $18.5 billion in military aid alone, second only to the United States.

France plans to increase defense spending by a third by 2030, including a significant expansion of its reserve budget (although military aid to Ukraine will be less generous). The Nordic and Baltic countries are increasing spending faster, and Finland is the bright spot. example.

However, awareness of the problem alone is not enough. European governments need the same sense of urgency they displayed in response to the 2020-2021 pandemic. In times of high debt burdens, cost of living pressures, and low growth, this is extremely difficult. But without action, Europe will remain vulnerable to malicious and heavily armed neighbors.

Even if the Russian threat becomes real in three years’ time, additional spending will likely provide limited improvement.

This was explained by Admiral Tony Radakin, the UK Chief of Defense Staff, who acknowledged that the British divisions committed to NATO were not in the state they should be, stating: ”

No one knows what Britain and its allies will do in the meantime. NATO may be forced to fight with the forces it has rather than the forces it needs.

Frances Harris is CEPA’s Editor-in-Chief. He was previously Central Europe and Washington correspondent for the Daily Telegraph.

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