India and China in crucial Asian qualifiers

While Europe’s teams begin their journey to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in nine months’ time, 15 Asian teams have already been eliminated and a further 13 will have completed their journey to 2026 during the international break.

The world’s most populous country, India, has not come close to qualifying for the World Cup since they bowed out after qualifying in 1950. But they are likely to reach at least the third qualifying round this time, despite scoring just two goals so far in Group A.

A late penalty defeat to Afghanistan in March put India in a more precarious position but a win against Kuwait in Kolkata this week could be enough to see them through to the next round, with India coach Igor Stimac saying the game could be “career-changing” for his players.

The international break will mark India’s record goalscorer, Sunil Chhetri’s final match for India. Only three men have scored more international goals than Chhetri’s 94 goals.

In Group B, Japan has comfortably qualified for the third round, but one spot remains open as North Korea must beat Syria and at least draw with Myanmar. Importantly for North Korea, both games are “home” matches, although they will be played in Laos rather than Pyongyang.

If North Korea beat Syria, qualification would be decided on goal difference, which could be controversial since North Korea only lost 3-0 as punishment for withdrawing from Japan in March. Given that Japan previously beat Syria 5-0, that 3-0 scoreline could be in their favour if qualification is decided on goal difference.

China’s hopes of qualifying may hinge on their match against Thailand, scheduled to be played in the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang, which is considered China’s “lucky” venue as it is where they qualified for the 2002 World Cup.

If China fail to win in Shenyang, their chances of qualifying may narrow down to a final match against South Korea, who are effectively already through to the next round but are under their third coach this year.

Kim Do-hoon will take charge of South Korea’s national team for the matches against China and Singapore. He previously managed the Lion City Sailors in Singapore but stepped down after serving a suspension for violent conduct. He replaces Hwang Seong-hong, who replaced Jurgen Klinsmann as interim manager but was unable to retain his position as interim manager of the senior team after missing out on the Olympics with the U-23s.

Oman are likely to advance from Group D, but Malaysia must beat Kyrgyzstan, who they came from behind to win 4-3 in a dramatic comeback earlier in the qualifiers, to have any realistic chance of progressing. With Iran and Uzbekistan already through, there is nothing to contest in the final Group E match.

Indonesia was one of 10 teams to win in the first round of qualifying. Those 10 teams typically struggle in the second round, but Indonesia’s two wins against Vietnam in March put them in a good position to advance to the third round along with Iraq in Group F.

Meanwhile, the runner-up spot in Group G will likely be decided in a match between Jordan and Tajikistan, with Saudi Arabia having already all but guaranteed a place in the next round.

Australia comfortably won Group I, but the runner-up spot will be decided in Qatar, where Palestine and Lebanon will face each other, both of which are forced to play at home in Qatar due to war and political unrest. Lebanon has only scored one goal in the qualifiers so far, the lowest number of goals scored of any team realistically in the running to win the tournament.

The top two teams from each group will advance to the third qualifying round, where they will compete in three groups of six each. The top two teams will advance directly to the 2026 World Cup, while the third and fourth-placed teams will compete in a playoff in the fourth round.