In Europe, EV purchases are expected to be nearly 9 million fewer than expected by 2030.report

Europeans will buy nearly 9 million fewer electric cars than expected between 2024 and 2030, according to investment bank UBS. The reason for this is that the high price, lack of range, and difficulty in charging are deterring potential buyers.

UBS said it still believes EVs will eventually become the dominant powertrain option after 2030. The European Union may decide to lessen the stringency of its commitment to force all new car sales to be electric by 2035 and extend that deadline, the bank said in a report. . Based on data from Evidence Lab consumer research.

Electric vehicle sales in Europe and the United States have slumped, and Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, GM and Ford have scaled back overly ambitious targets.

UBS has lowered its forecast for European EV sales in 2030 to 8.3 million from its previous forecast of 9.6 million. Investment researcher Jefferies expects EV sales in Europe to rise from about 2 million in 2023 to 8.9 million in 2030, with a market share of 65% compared to 16%. . According to Schmidt Automotive Research, EV sales in Western Europe will be just under 2 million units (16.9%) in 2023, but are expected to reach 8.4 million units, or 60% of the total market, by 2030.

UBS forecasts European EV sales for this year to be 2.3 million units, up from the previous forecast of 2.5 million units, 2.9 million units (3.6 million units) in 2025, 3.5 million units in 2026 (versus 4.8 million units), and 6.3 million units in 2027. The forecast for 2028 has been revised downward to 4.5 million units. 5.7 million people vs. 7.5 million people, and in 2029, 7.1 million people vs. 8.5 million people.

“Affordability is the main reason for the stagnation trend in Western markets,” UBS said.

“The top three reasons for not buying an EV are:

・Purchase price is too high

・Insufficient range per charge

· Long charging time

UBS said China’s threat to European manufacturers could be delayed if the EU raised tariffs on imports, but this could curb the transition to electric vehicles. UBS said Volvo’s EV-only strategy is likely to hurt its profitability due to the aggressive phasing out of ICE and hybrid vehicles.

The bank maintained its long-term view that EVs will ultimately win, but so-called legacy manufacturers such as BMW, which were seen as too slow to embrace the electric revolution, are now sensitive. It seems so.

“We reiterate our view that BEVs will become the dominant powertrain globally from 2030 onwards. However, unless BEVs become fully affordable in Western markets, flexible legacy[manufacturers]“Aggressive BEV-only strategies are under significant margin pressure against emerging Chinese competitors,” likely to exhibit stronger earnings and FCF (free cash flow) trends.” the report states.

“For legacy[manufacturers]we believe the risk of disruption in China remains high, but outside of China, the risk of disruption has diminished, particularly in the premium segment and the mass segment in the US. The mass segment in the EU still face a high competitive threat from Chinese EVs, and a potential tariff increase would only moderately slow this threat, which could have undesirable side effects for European[manufacturers].”

There is a shortage of inexpensive EVs in Europe and the United States, and sales are sluggish.

“The number one reason for not buying fully electric cars in Europe and the US remains the lack of affordable BEV models. This could remain a plateau for several years until cost parity with ICE cars is reached. This means that there is a decline in demand in major markets, which could become even more so as subsidies for EVs increase.” ”

UBS said its findings show that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will benefit less, with sales forecasts in Europe largely unchanged at just over 1 million units per year from 2024 to 2030, compared to the previous year. Compared to expectations, the number will reach 1 million units by 2030. 900,000. He expressed the view that if EU rules are tightened after 2025, there will be penalties for the sale of PHEVs.

Will the EU decide to water down its CO2 emissions regime?

“After the[European Parliament]elections in June, it remains to be seen whether the EU will strictly adhere to the CO2 political framework for 2025 and 2030, and for 2035 when the de facto ICE car ban comes into effect.” So a lot will depend on who wins the White House election.”